This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover.See all 26.
This summer I had the misfortune of flying AMR Corp.'s (NYSE: AMR) American Airlines. In my experience, it ranks near the top in its expression of contempt for its customers. As I wrote in my book Value Leadership, it is almost the opposite of Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV), which has tarnished its flawless image with its first quarterly loss in 17 years due to a $247 million charge resulting from a jet fuel hedge gone sour. But to give American Airlines a makeover, it would be wise to borrow selectively from what makes Southwest so great.
In August, I was scheduled on a 1:50 pm flight from Boston to Miami -- trying to get a connecting flight to Chile on its excellent airline, LAN Air. American Airlines said the flight would be delayed for 15 minutes because of a mechanical problem that caused the air-conditioning in the back of the plane not to work. Half the plane got out, and an hour later American Airlines announced an indefinite delay.
A big line formed at our gate to rebook. Next to our gate was an empty one with two American employees who were working on their computers. I waited patiently until one of them finished her work and asked if she could help me. She stared at me and said no, she could only help people on the flight scheduled for that gate, and went back to her computer. No thanks to her I ended up booking a flight that left at 6 pm, causing me to miss my connection to Chile.
Not too long ago Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) used fuel hedging to lock in a $2.19 average per gallon fuel price with its providers. Betting that prices were going to rise, they took a gamble and agreed to pay a set price for a large amount of fuel for their operating costs.
This isn't the first time an airline has done this. But if the cost of fuel had gone down, Southwest would have been sitting on an obligation to pay for fuel at a higher than market price. Fortunately for Southwest, the bet cashed in, and so did Southwest. The Airline company was able to buy fuel at a rate cheap enough to keep its costs lower than rival companies. Southwest reported this week that it increased revenue by 11%, earning $321 million, or 44 cents a share.
But Southwest's fuel hedging earning the company $511 million. When that sweet deal ends, Southwest will be facing fuel costs almost double what they've been paying over this last year. As a nod to that Southwest is slowing growth.
Despite the worries about the upcoming adjustments, Southwest has continued its canny ability to stay nimble and profitable. This is the company's 69th straight profitable quarter.
Again this week, in a list of earnings expectations for some prominent companies in a variety of sectors, we see an apparent optimism. That is, analysts are anticipating more earnings growth than earnings declines.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
There are many ironies in the fact that President George W. Bush will throw the first pitch at Major League Baseball's All-Star Game in New York. For one, President Bush is the first managing general partner of a Major League team (the Texas Rangers) to become President of the United States.
President Franklin Roosevelt was the first to attend an All-Star Game and throw out the first pitch, starting the tradition. He too had to deal with a poor economy and by the time he threw out that first ball the groundwork was being laid for World War II. President Bush has had to contend with his own war.
While there are differing views as to whether we should have gone into Iraq and whether we should stay or get out, this will always be viewed as George's war, fair or not. And the state of our economy in 2008 will also be viewed as George's economy, fair or not.
The ultimate irony for me is that Yankee Stadium is scheduled to be torn apart at the end of the season. This is YANKEE Stadium and the last president to set foot in it will be George W. Bush. The stadium with the greatest heritage in baseball, the 'House That Ruth Built', is going to be torn apart while our economy is also being torn apart. It is being torn out at its roots.
Although its stock is down 45% since the beginning of 2001, Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) is the only airline to make a profit every year since it was founded. As The New York Times reports, Southwest's founder Herb Kelleher retired as chairman after 37 years this week. And he got a very warm send off from employees.
This is really one of the keys to Southwest's success. As I wrote in Value Leadership, here are some big reasons that it's been able to profit over the years:
Treats employees well. Southwest genuinely cares about its employees. It spends a significant amount of time selecting them and it pays them well -- including giving them stock options and profit sharing -- and treats them with respect. The happy employees treat customers well and the happy customers keep coming back.
More productive. Southwest turns planes around at the gate in 20 minutes. It doesn't serve meals -- just snacks. This cuts time that might be spent waiting for food to arrive at the plane and cleaning up after. And since employees care about the company and are rewarded for Southwest's profitability, they look for ways to keep it profitable.
Hedging on fuel costs. Southwest hedges jet fuel -- which is the second biggest airline cost. 70% of its fuel is hedged at $51 a barrel which compares favorably to the current $135.
The oil surge, which gives new indications daily that it's evolving into the world's third oil shock, bodes tougher times for airlines, and travelers alike, many analysts agree.
Moreover, those tougher times may propel "creative and avant-garde" ideas and strategies to cope with the more-challenging flying environment, by both airlines and travelers, so says C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst.
American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) took the first, bold - - and controversial - - step in the 'era of new flying rules' by announcing that it would charge passengers $15 each way to check their first bag, The Dallas Morning News reported. American also reduced its flying schedule by 11-12% at the same time.
Bauer said travelers should brace for more a-la-carte changes from the major carriers, and some truly creative ones, at that. "The airlines will be looking at every way to reduce fuel usage and cover those expenses from added weight," Bauer said, "When oil was at $20 a barrel, weight was a cost factor, but now at more than $125 a barrel, it's a going-concern factor. These high fuel costs can and will force some airlines out of business if they can't recover these costs. 'Light flight' is in." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares of any airline.
Two years after coming out of bankruptcy, ATA airlines has once again been forced to file for chapter 11. The airline canceled all flights, and has advised travelers to start to look for alternative travel arrangements.
The airline operated roughly 50 flights a day, and had more than 2,200 employees working. On its website, ATA has issued a formal statement and blamed the final straw for its collapse on the loss of a key military contract. In 2006, the company had won a $335 million dollar contract from the U.S. Air Force for international airlift services.
In its statement, ATA has advised passengers to contact their credit card company, or travel agent to discuss the options to get refunded for their unused tickets.
I have had some clients ask me, what industry I think will benefit from the $600 rebate checks that are due to be sent out as part of the U.S. economic stimulus package. I think airlines will benefit, especially lower cost carriers like Southwest (NYSE: LUV) and Jet Blue (NASDAQ: JBLU).
The USA Today has an article about the kind of vacation you can have for $600. The article says: "With most Americans expecting to receive a tax rebate of up to $600 ($1,200 for married couples), there are plenty of ways to get the most vacation for your buck, say travel experts. Whether it's a cruise, a tropical paradise, or family travel, these trips can all be done for under $600 a person."
Because we aren't talking about flying around the world or across the Atlantic for that measure, trips to Las Vegas or Orlando, for example, will fit the family, and of course people need a way to get to these destinations, so that's how the airlines become interesting. Throw into the mix potentially stable or even lower fuel costs, and for investors looking for a way to play the "Rebate check" game, you may want to take a look at the airlines.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/2/08
For anyone who has plans to fly on American Airlines, AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR) or Delta (NYSE: DAL) today, you may want to call ahead and verify that your flights are still taking off as planned, as both airlines are canceling hundreds of scheduled flights today.
Both carriers are grounding a large number of flights as they continue to hold inspections on wiring bundles on some of their planes. For American, the company is planning to ground 132 of its flights today, while Delta is canceling 275 flights.
The Federal Aviation Administration is in the middle of a massive inspection project, in which it stated that it will be inspecting 10 safety orders (also known as airworthiness directives) at every single major airline by March 28. This comes after a scandal broke out over missed inspections at Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) earlier this year.
Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines may reach a merger agreement within weeks after sharing details of the plan with pilot unions, people close to the talks said, Bloomberg News reported Monday.
The merger would create the world's biggest airline in terms of traffic, Delta served about 74 million passengers in 2007; Northwest, about 56 million. The combined entity would vault past no. 1 carrier American Airlines (NYSE: AMR), which served 129.5 million passengers.
Delta's (NYSE: DAL) shares were down 23 cents to $19.95, while Northwest (NYSE: NWS) declined 23 cents to $20.62 in Monday afternoon trading.
Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Monday a Delta / Northwest represents a good operational fit, for several reasons.
At some point last year did you find yourself stuck in a noisy, overcrowded airport terminal for hours on end waiting for your flight to take off? If so, you were by no means alone. According to the Transportation Department, last year was the second worst year in history for delayed domestic flights.
Splitting my time between America and Europe, I find myself on a lot of airplanes during the year, and luckily I only had one sizable delay on my domestic connections. While I found it rather irritating at the time, looking back on it I feel lucky that it happened only once. That is far better than the national average, which showed that 26% of all domestic flights were delayed during the year.
Granted, national averages have only been recorded going back to 1995, but last year ranked as the second worst year on record, with 2000 coming in slightly worse with 27.4% of flights seeing delays.
What reasons are we given for the excessive flight delays?
Today's news that Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) will slow its planned growth in 2008 marks the second time this year that the low-cost carrier has reined in expansion as it struggles with high fuel costs. "We are concerned about growing evidence of slowing economic growth that would inevitably affect passenger demand, coupled with a surge in energy prices," Chief Executive Gary C. Kelly said in a statement.
Clearly the airline industry is challenged by high fuel costs and the prospect for slower domestic growth that would make it harder for no-frills carriers to fill their planes. As Douglas McIntyre pointed out, the saving grace for Southwest is that it has a long-term hedge on fuel prices and is buying fuel at a crude oil cost of about $51 a barrel.
What can airlines do to get profitable during this expensive fuel, slower-growth period? Well, charging customers a bit more so they can have a soda on the plane is probably not the right answer -- all it really does is make the airlines look incredibly cheap. The price airlines charge makes a drink at Yankee Stadium look cheap. How many of us have been on a plane and everyone is snickering and making comments to the person seated next to them about how they can't believe they need to pay for a Coke (NYSE: KO).
I think that airlines, like any business, need to show consumers that they are valued. Charging for a drink has the opposite effect. For an interesting take on airline improvements, read this post by Steve Towers.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 12/04/07.
You have to hand it to Herb Kelleher, the famous CEO of Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV). He is retired now, and his legacy was to make the airline the best low-cost provider in the US. But he also did something else that was just as important. He bought hedges against higher oil prices.
According toThe New York Times "Southwest owns long-term contracts to buy most of its fuel through 2009 for what it would cost if oil were $51 a barrel. The value of those hedges soared as oil raced above $90 a barrel, and they are now worth more than $2 billion."
While other airlines struggle with the damage that $90 oil will do to their bottom lines, Southwest will have a huge advantage in terms of its cost base for at least two years. That should increase the value of the company compared to almost every other US airline.
Kelleher will now be remembered as more than just a clever cost-cutting and marketing executive.
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.
There are many ironies in the fact that President George W. Bush will throw the first pitch at Major League Baseball's All-Star Game in New York. For one, President Bush is the first managing general partner of a Major League team (the Texas Rangers) to become President of the United States.
At some point last year did you find yourself stuck in a noisy, overcrowded airport terminal for hours on end waiting for your flight to take off? If so, you were by no means alone. According to the Transportation Department, last year was the 
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