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Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Gold has outperformed nearly all other investments over the past few years," says Mary Anne Aden in The Aden Forecast. Here, the resource expert looks at her favorite play in the sector.

"It appears as though this trend for gold's outperformance will continue in the years ahead. Why?

"According to Bloomberg, the total amount of money provided by the U.S. government to rescue the financial system over the past year and a half has been $7.4 trillion.

"That amounts to $24,000 for every man, woman, and child, and it's totally unprecedented. All of this money will eventually fuel inflation and gold is the number one inflation hedge.

"Currently, President-elect Obama and his team are busy working on how to get the economy moving again. This is their top priority and one plan involves the largest infrastructure investment since the 1950s when all of the super highways were built. This will provide jobs and it'll hopefully help spur the economy.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"As my favorite stock for 2009, I recommend that investors buy the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), a gold exchange-traded fund," says international investing specialist Vivian Lewis.

In her Global Investing newsletter, which focuses on ADR and other global issues that trade on U.S. exchanges, the advisor explains, "I think every portfolio needs an inflation hedge in a period of unbridled monetary easing and pump priming."

Lewis explains, "SPDR Gold Trust does not depend on the economy coming right nor is it a play on recession and doom. Forecasting the macroeconomic trends in the U.S. and worldwide is very difficult in the current unprecedented economic crisis.

"But there is one thing you can be sure of: the measures already taken by governments around the world to stimulate their enfeebled companies and unclog their banking systems will result in an inflation problem.

"The vast government deficits engendered by the bailouts and stimulus will eventually have to be addressed. There aren't many options.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Option Update: Financial Select, SPDR Gold, Oil Services volatlity up

Financial Select Sector (NYSE: XLF) closed at $13.69. XLF October option implied volatility is at 175, November is at 123; above its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) closed at $89.90. Gold is recently up 3.99% to $921.90 according to Bloomberg. GLD October option implied volatility is at 62, November is at 53; above its 20-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting price movement.

Oil Services Holders (NYSE: OIH) closed at $97.60. Crude oil futures are recently down 4.98% to $82.28 according to Track Data. OIH holdings include BHI, BJS, DO, ESV, GRP, GSF, HAL, SLB, HC, NBR, NE, NOV, RDC, RIG, SII, SLB, TDW & WFT. OIH October option implied volatility is at 120, November is at 102 above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Our pick to profit from a McCain-Palin victory in November is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund that is designed to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion," explains Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes.

"We would buy gold in order to hedge ourselves against what we expect would be a heightened sense of uncertainty that foreign investors would express (at least initially) if the hard-to-predict 'mavericks' take the helm.

"I also continue to believe that we are still in the early stages of what will prove to be a multi-year boom for commodities, and much of the selling we have seen in gold appears to be for primarily emotional reasons.

"The recent strength of the dollar may partially explain the drop in gold, but for the most part, I think we have simply been witnessing some good old-fashioned panic selling.

"Unlike some other ETFs that invest in precious metals via the buying and selling of futures contracts on the underlying commodities, SPDR Gold Trust (formerly known as the streetTracks Gold Trust) actually buys and sells gold bullion, and each share of the Trust represents approximately 1/10th of an ounce of gold.

"However, while there are certain benefits to actually owning gold itself (as opposed to a derivative contract associated with the commodity), investors need to be aware that gold is considered a 'collectible' by the IRS, and thus investing in this ETF can result in a higher tax rate being applied to any gains that are achieved.

Continue reading McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Option Update: Commodity selloff causes higher volatility

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) closed at $45.25 Monday. Natural Gas futures are recently down 2.25% to $8.53 according to Bloomberg. BMO Capital Markets has a $68 target price on CHK. CHK September option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), a commodity-based exchange traded security, closed at $86.84. Gold is recently trading down 1.70% to $892.50. GLD option volume was heavy on August 4, 2008 with 106,112 contracts trading. GLD over all option implied volatility of 25 is near its 9-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) will report Q2 EPS on August 6. RIO, a Brazilian mineral company, closed at $26.36. Goldman has a Buy rating on RIO. RIO option volume was heavy on August 4, 2008, with 237,545 contracts trading. RIO August option implied volatility is at 66, September is at 56; above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.


Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

'Vital' buys: A trio of gold favorites

"Gold is the only financial asset that isn't someone else's liability and it's the only asset that's reliably held its value over time," notes global investor and resource expert Yiannis Mostrous.

In his Vital Resource Investor, he adds, "Indeed, gold has held its value for millenia. An ounce of gold still buys a quality men's suit, just as it did in the days of ancient Greece." Here, he reviews a trio of ideas, each for investors with various levels of risk tolerance.

Mostrous explains, "To date, Americans have never had to experience the society-wrenching events that have affected much of the world for centuries. But most of the globe's population hasn't forgotten the value of gold in times of extreme strife and social turmoil.

"And with incomes rising in many of these countries, beneficiaries have used their newfound savings to beef up their holdings. That's a trend with serious legs, particularly as Asia continues to grow.

"Then there's inflation, the ultimate debaser of all paper currencies. Despite surging energy and food prices, core inflation remains at elevated -- but still relatively moderate -- levels in most of the developed world.

"Developing world inflation, however, is a far different story. And many countries have seen sharp price acceleration across the board, including China.

Continue reading 'Vital' buys: A trio of gold favorites

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