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Invest in Oil to Hedge Long Stock Positions

The best hedge for long stock positions right now is a long position in crude oil. While far from perfect, the best way for stock traders to gain this exposure is probably through the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO).

It is hard to underestimate just how explosive this situation could become in the coming weeks and months. NYMEX crude oil is currently trading just below $100 and Brent crude is sitting at $115.35. If the latest spike in oil prices teaches us anything, it is that this commodity is incredibly volatile and little can be done about sharp price increases resulting from geopolitical shocks.

Continue reading Invest in Oil to Hedge Long Stock Positions

Options Update: Gold Rises as Middle East Violence Spreads

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) closed at $135.41. Middle East violence has resulted in gold rising above $1,407 an ounce. GLD overall option implied volatility of 17 is below its 26-week average of 20, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Financial Select Sector (XLF) overall volatility at 22; 26-week average is 24.

ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 114; 10-day moving average is 132.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

The Aden Sisters on Gold: 'Stay with the Mega-Trend'

gold bars"Gold rises with inflation and in times of crisis, like we have today; and, as a result, many countries are buying gold," says Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

The long-standing resource sector expert and co-editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "They know it's the ultimate currency and gold is again taking its place in the global monetary system, as it has for thousands of years.

"The actions of the world's central banks tell the story. At the very least, this is going to keep upward pressure on gold in the years ahead.

Continue reading The Aden Sisters on Gold: 'Stay with the Mega-Trend'

Paulson Still a Big Bull on Gold

Every quarter, investors eagerly await the disclosures for the holdings of top-notch hedge fund managers. Which stocks are being dumped? What are the new purchases?

Just look at billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson. Over the past couple of years, he has been a big holder of gold stocks. And yes, in light of the terrible plunge in the precious metal in January, investors are wondering if Paulson is still a bull.

Continue reading Paulson Still a Big Bull on Gold

Investors Make a $102 Billion Bet on Gold

Last month was certainly tough for gold. In fact, it was the worst January in about 20 years.

But as usual, there were many investors who thought that this was the end of the bull run. Hasn't gold risen for ten straight years? Isn't it time for a bear market?

Well, the fact is that corrections are normal, even for gold. And there is no reason to believe that the recent fall-off is yet another example.

Continue reading Investors Make a $102 Billion Bet on Gold

Top Picks 2011: SPDR Gold (GLD) and iShares Silver (SLV)

gold and silverThis post is one in a series in which more than 60 newsletter advisors share their Top Stock Picks for 2011. This special report is courtesy of TheStockAdvisors.com.

"Gold and silver were top performers in 2010. In fact, they've been top performers over the past eight to 10 years. We believe this will continue in 2011," says resource expert Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

The co-editors of The Aden Forecast explains, "As the year was drawing to a close, gold hit an all time record high and silver reached a 30 year high. It was super bullish action. And it's not over yet.

Continue reading Top Picks 2011: SPDR Gold (GLD) and iShares Silver (SLV)

Gold: The Stages of a Mega-Bull Market

gold"We hear that gold is in a bubble, it can't rise much further and so on," content resource experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

The co-editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "Many wonder, why is it even rising so much? For that, you have to look at history from a global perspective and it'll provide the answer.

"We've often pointed out that gold is money. It has been for thousands of years. Paper money is not really money and there isn't one paper currency that has survived over time.

Continue reading Gold: The Stages of a Mega-Bull Market

Options Update: CBOE Volatility Index Up, Gold at All-Time High

Gold closed at an all-time closing high of $1290.50. SPDR Gold Trust weekly put option implied volatility for the next four months is below the 26-week average of 22, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing near-term price movement.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) overall implied volatility is at 21, its 26-week average is 25.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Three Reasons to Buy SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

"I do believe a lot of fundamentals and technicals and time-cycle indicators are now pointing to an up-trend in gold," says Mike Turner.

The editor of Mastering the Markets explains, "As such, my latest recommendation is to buy the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a gold ETF that tends to reflect one-tenth the actual price of gold.

"My proprietary forecasting software system indicates that GLD could stay relatively flat for the next three weeks before beginning a rather sharp upward trend. The uptick in my indicators suggests that this could be the start of the more significant uptrend for August.

Continue reading Three Reasons to Buy SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Gold Rallies to a Record High of $1,260.90 per Ounce

The story is all about gold today. Gold hit a record high of $1,260.90 per ounce on Friday. August gold futures are up $9.20 to $1,257.85 per ounce. Since the end of 2009 gold has risen 15%

Holdings in New York's SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) hit record highs of 1,307.963 tons on Thursday, also an indication that investors are turning to the physical metal.

Continue reading Gold Rallies to a Record High of $1,260.90 per Ounce

Options Update: Bank of America Calls Active, Shares Near 10-Month Low

Bank of America (BAC) closed at $15.88. BAC 331K option contracts traded on June 16. July put option implied volatility is at 41, August and November is at 42, near its 26-week average of 41, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is recently up 62 cents to $120.95 in pre-open trading. Gold is recently up .46% to $1236.20. July put option implied volatility is at 21, August is at 23, December is at 25, versus its six-month average of 23, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing near term price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: US Airways Volatility Elevated; Shares Near 20-Month High

US Airways (LCC) closed at $8.35. WTI crude futures are recently down 0.42% to $71.14, according to Bloomberg. LCC overall option implied volatility of 82 is below its 26-week average of 78, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Stocks with implied volatility above 30-day mean: Vivus (VVUS), Rambus (RMBS), Moody's (MCO) according to IVolatility.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) overall implied volatility at 24; 26-week average is 23. Gold above $1,248.50.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Activity Heats Up on SPDR Gold Trust

Earlier today, Jeff Reeves argued the case for the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) exchange-traded fund (ETF). This inverse ETF could be a solid investment for speculators who are anticipating a further correction in gold futures -- and judging by Thursday's heavy put-buying on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), there are plenty of gold bears on Wall Street right now.

GLD's most popular options strike on Thursday was the July 93 put. With GLD trading near $115, this option is currently out of the money by more than 20 points. This put strike traded volume of 100,000 contracts yesterday, with 100% of these puts changing hands at the ask price -- revealing they were most likely purchased. Implied volatility on GLD's July 93 put rose 2.5% by the close, and open interest at this strike swelled overnight by 99,975 contracts. In other words, it seems safe to say that new bearish bets on gold were added at this strike yesterday.

Continue reading Options Activity Heats Up on SPDR Gold Trust

Gold is up as investors seek shelter from the storm

Gold usually has an inverse relationship with the dollar. When the USD goes up, gold goes down, because theoretically a stronger dollar can buy more gold. Additionally, commodities in general tend to fall on a stronger dollar because it is often correlated with lower expectations for growth.

This week we saw a major correction in equities with banks leading the way. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) was down more than 20% on Tuesday alone. This is a fear-driven decline, and we can see evidence of that in a positive correlation between gold and the dollar.

Continue reading Gold is up as investors seek shelter from the storm

15 favorite ETFs for 2009

For 26 years, at the start of each year, I've conducted an annual survey of newsletter advisors, asking for their favorite investment for the coming year. Until 2 or 3 years ago, their responses were almost always individual stocks and an occasional mutual fund.

Increasingly in recent years, many advisors have found their favorite positions to be exchange traded funds, whereby they can invest in a sector, region, or strategy without the inherent risk of an individual company. Indeed, in this year survey of 75 advisors, fully 1 out of 5 advisors chose ETFs.

ETFs were a popular choice for those seeking global exposure. Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report, selects the S&P China SPDR (NYSE: GXC) as his favored play. (Read the full article here.)

Nick Vardy sees opportunity in China, but also sees potential in a broader range of emerging global markets. The editor of Global Stock Investor looks to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) as his top idea for 2009. (Read the full article here.)

Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Advisors also wants to own a basket of emerging markets stocks, but only small caps. His pick is the WisdomTree Emerging Market Small Cap (NYSE: DGS). (Read the full article here.)

Jim Lowell takes a similar view -- chosing global small caps -- but adds a further restriction. His recommended ETF limits its holdings to dividend paying stocks. Hence, the top pick in his Marketwatch ETF Trader is the WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend (NYSE: DLS). (Read the full article here.)

ETFs an also be used to play a specific sector, such as consumer stocks. Leonard Goodall sees upside in companies making the "basics" such as soda, toothpaste and soap. In his No-Load Fund Investor, his top way to play this trend is the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE: XLP). (Read the full article here.)

In addition to using ETFs to invest in a region, country or sector, these vehicles can also be used to invest in a certain strategy. For example, Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research, chooses the PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation ETF (NYSE: PYH), which rotates its holdings to only include stocks that earn Value Line's top investment rating. (Read the full article here.)

Doug Fabian, editor of Successful Investing, looks to PowerShares DB Crude (NYSE: DXO), an exchange-traded note. While this leveraged position goes up twice as much as the underlying index when it rises, it also goes down twice as much when the index declines. (Read the full article here.)

Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor takes a similar approach, but rather than speculate on the price of oil and gas, he looks to ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), which invests in a basket of stocks operating within these sectors. (Read the full article here.)

The most popular choice in this year's survey was ETFs investing in gold. Both Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing, recommends the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD); it's price reflects 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (Read the full article here.)

Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast, also selects the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her top investment ideas for the coming year. (Read the full article here.)

Mark Leibovit, market timer and editor of VRTrader, holds a long-term bullish view on gold and opts for upside leverage. His top pick is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (NYSE: DGP). (Read the full article here.)

Pamela Aden, co-editor for The Aden Forecast, also sees upside potential in gold but prefers to invest in the companies that mine for the precious metal. Her top pick is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). (Read the full article here.)

For greater leverage (and higher risk), Steve Rawls, editor of Tipping Point Stocks, suggests the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL), which moves twice the rate of the underlying London gold price. (Read the full article here.)

Mike Larson, editor of Money & Markets, sees downside risk in financial stocks. But rather than try and select which stock might fall, he opts for a basket of financial players with the ProShares Trust Short Financials (NYSE: SEF). As an "inverse" fund, this moves in the opposite direction of the underlying index. (Read the full article here.)

And for even higher risk and volatility, Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, looks to the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), an inverse double fund. Not only does it move in the opposite direction of financial stocks, but it moves twice as much. (Read the full article here.)

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 07:41 AM

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