"Among contrarians, one advisors stands out among all others: David Dreman," notes John Reese, editor of the Validea newsletter.

His advisory service selects stocks based on the strategies of time-tested investors, he reviews Dreman's approach and offers one stock that matches the contrarian's investment profile -- specialty metals firm, Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI).

"Dreman, perhaps more than any other guru I follow, is a student of investor psychology. And at the core of his research is the belief that investors tend to overvalue the 'best' stocks -- those 'hot' stocks everyone seems to be buying -- and undervalue the 'worst' stocks -- those that people are avoiding like the plague.

"In addition, he also believed that the market was driven largely by how investors reacted to 'surprises', frequent events that include earnings reports that exceed or fall short of expectations, government actions, or news about new products.

"And, he believed that analysts were more often than not wrong about their earnings forecasts, which leads to a lot of these surprises. By taking a contrarian approach -- i.e. targeting out-of-favor stocks and avoiding in-favor stocks -- Dreman found you could make a killing.

"To find out-of-favor potential turnarounds, he compared a stock's price to four fundamentals: earnings, cash flow, book value, and dividend yield. Because Dreman took advantage of the overreactions of others, he found that one of the best times to invest was during a crisis.

"Allegheny Technologies is a diversified specialty metals producer; its metals are selected for use in environments that demand metals having hardness, toughness, strength, resistance to heat, corrosion or abrasion, or a combination of these characteristics.

Continue reading Allegheny Technologies (ATI): A 'Dreman style' contrarian buy

Allegheny Technologies (ATI): A 'Dreman style' contrarian buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Nov 2008 14:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.