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Would Apple (AAPL) become a cellular carrier?

Apple AAPL logoSince the story ran at BusinessWeek.com, it has some credibility. The online version of the magazine reports that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is considering joining the government's auction of wireless spectrum, putting it in potential competition with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Apple certainly has the $4.6 billion needed to enter the bidding, but the magazine says that the low margins in running a large wireless network might keep the consumer electronics company away. However, if Apple did succeed in the auction, it would have its own network for the iPhone. As a potential attraction, the company could allow its handset to use inexpensive VoIP.

Apple may have a longer-term reason to look at the spectrum. At some point, its sales of iPhones and iPods will slow in the U.S. But, having a service network would allow the company to combine video, music, and voice onto one platform, which could extend the sales life of its current products.

Another attraction might be the scale of the opportunity. Verizon Wireless will bring in about $40 billion this year. And, it is highly profitable. Offsetting that is the costs that were necessary to build out the infrastructure to support those revenues. But Apple might end up in a partnership with another company, say Google, to share those costs.

It may seem crazy, but so is the success of the iPod.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Analyst upgrades 8-07-07: BKC, EAT, GPS and NWA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Pepsi Bottling (PBG), Brinker International (EAT), Northwest Airlines (NWA) and Spectrum Brands (SPC) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Merriman upgraded shares of Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the 25% sell-off post in-line earnings is overdone.
  • Banc of America upgraded shares of Pepsi Bottling (NYSE: PBG) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's earnings power in 2008, ongoing cost controls and more robust product pipeline.
  • SMH Capital upgraded shares of Brinker Int'l (NYSE: EAT) as they believe expectations are too low for Q4 and FY08.
  • Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley on valuation.
  • Spectrum Brands (NYSE: SPC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham on valuation...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Gap (NYSE: GPS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at CL King & Associates.
  • Raymond James upgraded Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  • MetLife (NYSE: MET) was added to Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 7-25-07: AMZN, CAKE, CFC, EXPE and UPS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Countrywide Financial (CFC), Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN), Manhattan Associates (MANH), Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) and Amazon.com (AMZN) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Brandywine Realty Trust (NYSE: BDN) was upgraded at Wachovia to Market Perform from Underperform based on pipeline progress and valuation.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Manhattan Associates (NASDAQ: MANH) to Neutral from Underweight following better-than-expected Q2 results.
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SPPI) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Brean Murry, expecting shares to remain stable into the spected Phase III initiation with Ozarelix coming in Q4.
  • Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) was upgraded by a host of companies following the strong quarter and margin growth, including JP Morgan, which upgraded shares to Neutral from Underperform. Bear Stearns upgraded shares to Peer Perform from Underperform, Lehman upgraded shares to Equal Weight from Underweight and Credit Suisse upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman added AT&T (NYSE: T) to its Conviction Buy List.
  • Matrix USA upgraded Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) to Hold from Sell.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 7-23-07: BVF, COP, COSI and RIG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: ConocoPhillips (COP), Transocean (RIG), LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT), EOG Resources (EOG) and Quicksilver Resources (KWK) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Banc of America cut ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Neutral from Buy on valuation and the lack of upstream catalysts.
  • Deutsche Bank cut Transocean (NYSE: RIG) to Hold from Buy based on the GlobalSantaFe (GSF) merger.
  • Raymond James downgraded LifePoint Hospitals (NASDAQ: LPNT) to Market Perform from Strong Buy following the company's cut in guidance. Merrill Lynch downgraded LifePoint Hospitals to Neutral from Buy.
  • Citigroup downgraded EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) and Quicksilver Resources (NYSE: KWK) to Sell from Hold as both trade above the sector averages for NAV and cash flow and neither is well protected in the likely event commodity prices deteriorate...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • BMO Capital downgraded Biovail (NYSE: BVF) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Wedbush downgraded Cosi Inc (NASDAQ: COSI) to Hold from Buy.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

FCC's open-spectrum plans pit tech vs. telecoms

The FCC's upcoming auction for the 700-Mhz radio spectrum could give Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and other tech giants the power to change the world of wireless technology.

The current draft rules would set aside space in the new spectrum for an "open" network, void of the current restraints telecom operators like AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) normally put on their networks. The space for sale would be large enough to create a nationwide network "that will open the door to a lot of innovative services for consumers," FCC chairman Kevin Martin told USA Today. Estimates suggest that the auction could yield $20 billion to $30 billion for the government.

The point of an "open" platform is to allow consumers to use any combination of devices, software, content or services on the new network. The proposal for an open network would be a huge setback for the likes of AT&T and Verizon, among other major telecoms, because they wouldn't be able to control what phones and services would be used in their networks. Carriers have been critical of the draft rules which they feel favor Google, while consumer advocates complain that the rules are too timid and fail to create actual competition for the market, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Google, along with Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), EchoStar (NASDAQ: DISH) and DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) are part of the "Coalition for 4G in America," a group that has repeatedly called for the new bandwidth to be open to all devices and software. The Journal also said that Google and other tech giants have gone a step further to argue that the FCC should explicitly designate the new owner of the bandwidth to open up its network to a wider group of applications and mobile devices, unlike the existing system.

The FCC is expected to make a final decision on the draft rules over the summer.

Analyst initiations 6-18-07: AHR, ESLR, TLEO and SPEC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: TomoTherapy Inc (TTPY) and Anthracite Capital Inc (AHR) were today's notable initiations.
  • Baird started TomoTherapy Inc with an Outperform rating, saying the Hi-Art system has several key competitive advantages that include a more conformal beam pattern, potential to better measure radiation dose delivery and greater ability to treat complex cases.
  • William Blair and Piper Jaffray both believe the company has a substantial infrastructure to manufacture and support strong growth beyond the current 125 systems in the field, and started shares with an Outperform rating.
  • Deutsche Bank initiated Anthracite Capital (NYSE: AHR) with a Hold rating, expecting the company to continue growing its portfolio by acquiring commercial real estate securities and CRE loans...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Taleo Corp (NASDAQ: TLEO) was reinstated with a Buy rating at ThinkEquity.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 2-09-07: Roche & Callaway Golf downgraded

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Roche Holdings AG (RHHBY), US Steel Corp (X) and Penn National Gaming (PENN) topped today's list of most notable downgrades:
  • Bear Sterns downgraded Roche Holdings AG (OTC: RHHBY), to Peer Perform from Outperform after they lowered estimates to reflect higher taxes, slowing pharmaceutical sales, increased payments to third-party groups and reduced diagnostics profitability. Bernstein also downgraded Roche to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • CIBC downgraded U.S. Steel Corp (NYSE: X) to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer based on valuation. Bank of America also downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy with a $90 target citing the good news is reflected in the valuation.
  • Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation with a $48.50 target.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Silicon Image Inc (NASDAQ: SIMG) was downgraded to Underperform from Hold with a $7.50 target at Jefferies to reflect slow 1.3 HDMI adoption, aggressive 2007 guidance and deteriorating ASPs and margins; the firm recommends investors sell the stock. Silicon Image was also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stanford and Needham, to Sector Performer from Outperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson.
  • Spectrum Brands Inc (NYSE: SPC) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral with a $7 target at Prudential following the company's disappointing first quarter results.
  • Bear Stearns downgraded Forward Air Corp (NASDAQ: FWRD) to Underperform from Peer Perform.
  • AG Edwards downgraded Callaway Golf Corp (NYSE: ELY) to Hold from Buy on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Sprint, Time Warner, Cox, and Comcast spectrum plans still eluding

We already knew that T-Mobile was the big spender with a net spectrum purchase of well over $4 billion. What we didn't know was what SpectrumCo, LLC (Sprint-NexTel; Comcast, Time Warner, Cox, Adv./Newhouse) was going to do with the licenses they won and many didn't know the exact breakdown of what each partner's costs would be in SpectrumCo.

While we now know their costs, we still don't know exactly what will be done with all this spectrum.

Here is a backgrounder piece if you want to refer back.

SpectrumCo ended up with 137 licenses for roughly $2.4 billion, compared to T-Mobile's $4.2 billion for 120 licenses in major urban and regional markets. SpectrumCo gained enough spectrum to cover most of the U.S. population. We have a breakdown for some of the allocations of SpectrumCo: Comcast's portion of the total cost is $1.29 billion; Time Warner's portion is $632.2 million; and Cox Communication's portion is $248.3 million. The spectrum licenses were acquired for an average price of 45 cents per megahertz - pop, which was the lowest average price paid by all the major bidders, according to them. The spectrum licenses will create a true national footprint covering the MSOs' top cities including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, and provide flexibility and strategic options.

According to the press release from SpectrumCo, LLC the consortium did not approach this investment with the intent of becoming the nation's fifth wireless voice provider, but to obtain greater flexibility in developing options for more advanced wireless services.

While no plans have as yet been finalized, including no specific plans to build out the networks at this time, in coming months the members of SpectrumCo will fully evaluate all options including possible testing in limited markets.

Let the guessing games continue.

What do TWX and Eminem have in common?

"The FCC won't let me be" opines Eminem in his 2001 hit "Without Me," and these days Time Warner is feeling Eminem's pain.

Recently, the Federal Communications Company (FCC) pushed back an announced June 29 auction for wireless spectrum. The new auction date will be August 9.

Why does this matter to TWX? Well, according to some, by getting in on this wireless auction, Time Warner Cable wants to get in on some wireless action. Given Richard Parsons's optimism at last week's shareholders meeting, one can't help but wonder: is this part of Parsons' plan to right the good ship TWX?

Whatever the future holds, I think we can be certain of one thing: unlike Eminem, TWX will never do a duet with Elton John.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 08:20 AM

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