August 2007. You remember the month.

Oil had zoomed through $70 on its way to almost $100 by year's end, and soon there were research reports arguing that oil would top $150 or even $200 in the year ahead, on surging global economic growth.

Few knew it then, but the month also marked the start of the subprime mortgage default problem -- first deemed isolated, then sector-wide in scope, and that now encompasses every corner of the globe, in the world's most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Concern over the credit crunch and an accompanying slowdown in global economic growth sent oil prices below $70 Thursday for the first time since August 2007, with crude plunging $5.04 to $69.50 at mid-day. Oil has now fallen 53% since hitting an all-time high of $147.27 per barrel in July.

The other major energy commodities also continued their nearly month-long downtrend. Heating oil fell 11 cents to $2.07 per gallon, unleaded gasoline plunged 17 cents to $1.61 per gallon, and natural gas fell 6 cents to $6.65 per million BTUs.

Oil jumps more than $25 in one day and a chorus rises to 'stamp out speculators'.

But are speculators at the core of the problem? And if so, would reducing speculation lower oil prices?

Economist David H. Wang argues that speculators "may in fact be boosting oil's price" and a partial solution may be to require commodity traders to deposit more money per futures contract, thus reducing the number of speculators. That should lead to smaller price moves for oil, he said.

However, Wang cautioned, that reduction in speculators will also lead to smaller price moves to the downside if and when oil's bearish fundamentals become the market's major concern.

Oil: "The sexiest asset in town"

The reduction in global economic growth and growth expectations is leading to one benefit: a sharp decline in commodity prices, creating hope inflation may be peaking in many parts of the world, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday (subscription required).

Rice and palm oil, two commodities critical for the developing world, are both down about 40% since May, while the world's most vital commodity, crude oil, is down abut 23%, The Journal reported.

An end to surging commodity prices?

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday that while the commodity price-lower trend is still young, continued commodity price declines would be a welcomed sight, provided they don't drop too much.

"The pullback is welcome because many commodities had reached prohibitive levels, hindering commerce and really hurting the modest budgets of the poor/working poor in developing countries," Langan said. "However, too much of a price slide in commodities would be a sign of a pronounced global economic slowdown, which is something we don't want."

Further, Langan said that while regulators in various nations probe 'speculator' activity and alleged price manipulation in commodity markets, he argues that many of the price rises are consistent with historical price booms in other asset classes / sectors.

Add another case study to the controversy over speculators and market manipulation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether cotton prices were 'artificially inflated' in early March, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday (subscription required). The March 4 price spiked from about 70 cents per pound to an intra-day high of $1.09 and closed at 93.1 cents.

In Wednesday morning trading, cotton rose about four-tenths of one cent to 70.070 cents per pound.

The Journal reported that the price spike in early March was unusual and baffled traders because cotton inventories were at their highest level in four decades, towel and fabric demand was weakened by the housing slump, and global supplies were high.

On the other side of argument, one which argues that market forces set the price, some cotton merchants themselves were trading aggressively; a little-used exchange rule suddenly required merchants to unwind sell orders; and financial investors, including pension and hedge funds, started to enter the market, which generated an eight-fold jump February 19-26 in net buying, The Journal reported, citing CFTC data.

Another day, another oil record.

Oil easily pushed past $145 Thursday morning after traders calculated that the already weak dollar has further to fall after the European Central Bank increased a key interest rate by a quarter point to 4.25%.

Oil rose as much as $2.28 to $145.85 per barrel -- an all-time high -- before easing back slightly to trade at $144.40 at mid-day.

Oil tends to rise when the dollar falls as investors/traders seek to preserve purchasing power of the decreased value of dollar-denominated commodities by bidding their price up. However, it's important to note that the dollar/oil correlation is not perfect: there have been instances in which the dollar fell and oil fell.

One of the major economic debates on Main Street and in Washington concerns the influence of speculators during oil's record price rise. (Oil currently trades above $140 and is up 100% during the past year, and more than 400% since 2000).

More than one Congressional committee is investigating the role of speculators, who critics say have 'distorted' or artificially boosted oil's price -- driven it higher than a level the commodity would trade at if the price were based solely on supply and demand fundamentals.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, while not denying speculators have contributed to oil's record rise, nevertheless offers perhaps the strongest evidence regarding how a commodity's price can rise a great deal, without the influence of speculators. His evidence: iron ore.

With oil at $135 a barrel - up 463% since January 2001, Washington wrings its hands and says there's nothing it can do to lower the price. I think that's nonsense. There are two things that Washington can do today to get the price down: raise interest rates and close the swaps loophole.

What is the role of speculators in the price of oil and other commodities and what should be done to get those prices down? Some argue that oil prices are set by supply and demand. But if that were true, oil would drop because global demand is forecast to grow 1.2 million bbl/day -- and demand in the U.S. is down 300,000 barrels a day -- while global supply is expected to rise 2 million bbl/day.

Perhaps sixty percent of trading volume in oil is due to speculators -- these traders bet on a declining dollar and a rising price of oil. Raising interest rates would help lower the value of the dollar which has lost 70% of its value relative to the Euro since January 2001. Our Fed Funds rate fell from 5.25% to 2% since last August whereas in Europe, their rate is 4% and expected to rise. This difference makes Euros a more attractive currency for investors. So if the U.S. raises interest rates, people will start to buy dollars instead.

Billionaire investor George Soros said speculators are playing a major role in oil's record price rise. He also argued that the sky-high $130 per barrel price looks like a bubble, The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday.

Soros said "speculation . . . is increasingly affecting the price" and that oil now has "this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles." However, he qualified his remarks by stating that the bubble would not burst "until both the U.S. and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically."

Oil fell about $2 to $130.12 per barrel in mid-day Tuesday trading after data showed Americans are cutting back their gasoline consumption amid record-high gasoline prices approaching $4 per gallon in several regions of the country, Bloomberg News reported. U.S. gasoline consumption has fallen for about fourth straight months, on a year-over-year basis, according to U.S. Department of Energy data. Oil is up 100% in the past 12 months, and about 480% since 2002.

Each week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes a report known as the Commitments of Traders Report ("COT"), which breaks down aggregate trader positions ( "open interest") in certain futures and options markets into three categories: commercial, non-commercial, and nonreportable.

According to the CFTC, commercial operators, or "hedgers," are "engaged in business activities hedged by the use of futures or option markets." Non-commercial operators, or "large speculators," include individuals and firms, such as hedge funds, that engage in large-scale speculative buying and selling. Nonreportables, or "small speculators," comprise all other participants, including individual traders.