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Mailbag: Using Green for Green Stocks

Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he answers a reader's burning question about "green" stocks. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Udall,

Do you have any opinions on Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT)? My wife wants me to buy everything "green". Her last "green" company idea was General Electric (NYSE: GE). I know, right? I bought a little just to quiet the noise level. I'm into a little SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR). Does Zoltek have legs?

Thanks,

Minyan L.

Minyan L.,

First, that's hysterical. Second, a word of caution: Going all green, or all of any one thing, is something I'd never advocate. If you do, you do so at your own risk, as nothing in the market is ever as obvious as it seems, especially when it seems totally obvious.

Continue reading Mailbag: Using Green for Green Stocks

Tech Vibes

Editor's Note: This post comes courtesy of Sean Udall, a wise player in the tech field. For more, visit www.minyanville.com.

Interesting article on Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone "potential" teardown. Implications are that the 3G iPhone will carry higher margins than previous model. We will see shortly and I still expect Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) to benefit from the actual teardown.

Speaking of Broadcom, the company got the all clear on a patent infringement deal with SiRF Technology Holdings (NASDAQ: SIRF) and I like the emerging technical setup on BRCM.

Elsewhere, Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) reports today and has been a solid tech name this year, really many years for that matter. I don't expect any big surprises.

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) is at the William Blair growth conference. Gaming sales were reported strong again last week. This is probably a cheap solid grower but I prefer the growing online gaming model, I've discussed on the Buzz in the past.

SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) was upgraded this morning and presenting at an Alternative Energy conference on Wednesday. I was going to trade this again but the analyst action is spiking the stock today.

Evergreen Solar's (NASDAQ: ESLR) shareholder and analyst meetings is scheduled this week and I'm thinking this could fuel bullish action.

Regarding Comverge (NASDAQ: COMV) and EnerNOC (NASDAQ: ENOC), I overheard some bullish comments on these stocks on CNBC this morning. I've discussed COMV on the buzz previously and ENOC is their sister company. Both companies offer technology solutions for managing the power grid more efficiently and I think both stocks are cheap emerging growth stocks.

Position in BRCM, ESLR, COMV.

Analyst upgrades: HRB, TLB, SPWR, AG, EBAY, SNDK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: H&R Block, Talbots and SunPower were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer believes H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) has shown several catalysts over the past few months, most importantly the sale of its mortgage business. The firm, which upgraded shares to Outperform from Perform, believes the company's strong 2008 tax season will lead to future growth, and they think the stock can appreciate 20%+, as catalysts are not yet fully reflected in the stock.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company has several sources of cash to avoid a liquidity crisis, charge card EPS contribution provides good visibility, improved merchandise margins, and better merchandising.
  • Credit Suisse raised SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) to Outperform from Neutral citing strength in Italy and other geographies.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Agco (NYSE: AG) was raised at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • UBS upgraded Metso Oyg (OTC: MXCYY) to Buy from Neutral.
  • JMP Securities upgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  • Stifel upgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst downgrades: SNDA, ESLR, SPWR and MAR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Shanda Interactive, Evergreen Solar, SunPower and Marriott were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Shanda Interactive (NASDAQ:SNDA) to Hold from Buy following the company's lower-than-expected guidance as they see a lack of positive catalysts.
  • Merrill downgraded Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Sell from Neutral citing a potential reduction in German tariffs.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Marriott (NYSE:MAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing economic pressures on business travel.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Vivus (NASDAQ:VVUS) was downgraded at Wachovia to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • UBS lowered Juniper(NASDAQ:JNPR) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Cemex (NYSE:CX) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.

Option Update: SunPower volatility low; Germany considers tariff reductions

SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), a manufacturer of solar systems, is recently down $3.30 to $79.70 in pre-open trading.

Calyon says: "The German solar feed-in tariff (FIT) is under fire, as lawmakers are considering an accelerated digression that would reduce rates 25% by 2010 versus 15% under current law."

SPWR over all option implied volatility of 60 is below its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk. SPWR puts are priced higher than calls because SPWR is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil's not the widespread tax it used to be

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.

Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.

Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.

Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.

Or how about all of the companies involved with process and flow control and efficient motors: Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take), Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take), Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take) and Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) (Cramer's Take). Those work higher with higher energy prices. CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take), Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) (Cramer's Take), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) (Cramer's Take) are smaller energy users than trucks, and they ship plenty of ethanol and fertilizer.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil's not the widespread tax it used to be

Analyst initiations: SPWR, ESLR and ABT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: SunPower, Evergreen Solar and Abbott Lab were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Citigroup believes SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) is faced with high cell production costs, its silicon cost and installation cost advantages are increasingly commoditized and finds the risk/reward even at current levels. Shares were initiated with a Hold rating and $105 target.
  • Citigroup believes Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) faces significant financing requirements over the next few years, making it difficult to see a sustained period of EPS growth beyond the $1 range. The firm sees downside to $5/share. Shares were assumed with a Sell rating and $8 target.
  • UBS started Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) with a Buy rating and $61 target. The firm is positive on Humira potential growth and expects Xience to drive vascular operating margins to positive.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Cypress Semi (CY) lower on Sunpower downgrade

CY logoCypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY) stock is falling this morning after an analyst at Credit Suisse downgraded SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), in which CY has invested, to "Neutral" from "Outperform." There are also analyst comments out there today about CY that could be hurting the stock. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CY.

After hitting a one-year low of $16.72 last January, the stock hit a one-year high of $42.79 in November. This morning, CY opened at $26.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.68 and a high of $26.23. As of 11:05, CY is trading at $25.30, down $1.41 (-5.3%). The chart for CY looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $40 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in 2 months as long as CY is below $40 at March expiration. Cypress would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money.

CY hasn't been above $40 for more than a few day at a time in the past year and has shown resistance around $30 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings next week impress investors, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance CY might find around $40, where the stock topped out twice since October.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CY or SPWR.

What 'American Idol' can teach you about solar stocks

"I can't believe I won," cried Jordin Sparks, winner of last year's American Idol. Within seconds, industry and non-industry drones alike began formulating ways to attach themselves to her in some way, crazy in anticipation of the inevitable riches.

Months later, several Wall Street types were overheard saying, "I can't believe oil keeps going higher, alternative energy stocks are going to be hot, hot, hot," and thousands of investors went wild buying shares of the dozen or so solar stocks, crazy in anticipation of the inevitable riches.

Each industry has its stars: Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood and Clay Aiken -- as determined by album sales -- for American Idol, First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWR) and MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) -- as determined by stock performance -- for the solar industry.

Continue reading What 'American Idol' can teach you about solar stocks

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Stocks to own in the era of a no-grow Fed

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there are some names that will work here, but they're a small slice of the total market pie.

Can someone, anyone, tell me why we can bank on this Fed? "The Fed has to cut 50 basis points or we are going to Dow 12,500."

Yeah, OK. I get it. Fed panicked and cut 50 last time we were shocked with a weak employment number. Maybe they will do it again.

But I look at it a different way. This Fed thinks it is smarter than all of us. It looks at ways to tinker to bring down the short-rates without attacking them head on. They are clever.

Clever's stupid.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Stocks to own in the era of a no-grow Fed

Why Jamie Lynne Spears' pregnancy matters to investors

Today's biggest headline is that Britney Spears' 16-year-old sister, Jamie Lynn, is pregnant. This could have more of an impact on the markets than any Fed announcement! Kidding. But just when you thought Britney Spears might be in danger of losing her crown as America's leading advocate of white trash family values, Britney's baby sister swoops in and rescues her big sister, securing that crown on behalf of the entire Spears family. (Pamela Anderson is making a run for it by divorcing -- and now possibly reconciling with -- her third husband of only two months, Rick Solomon, who is best known for his role in the bestselling adult video "1 Night in Paris," which he made with then girlfriend Paris Hilton.) More importantly, this news offers a solid lesson for investors.

Seriously -- let me explain.

You see we've all cringed at Britney's circus-like behavior and thought that maybe, just maybe, her baby sister would be spared such embarrassments. But, like stocks in the same industry, children, especially those with the same DNA, raised in the same environment tend to possess the same qualities. The Spears' sisters both have (or had) the looks, incredible talent, an unholy desire for headlines of any kind and the ability to continually make poor decisions.

Let's compare these entertainment siblings to some popular stock siblings.

Continue reading Why Jamie Lynne Spears' pregnancy matters to investors

LDK Solar has further upside potential

LDK Solar (NASDAQ: LDK) logo On Monday, LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) surged 20% to $68.18 on news that an investigation into the company's accounting came up clean, but like Rodney Dangerfield, the stock can't get no respect. Not one but two analysts kept their "Sell" ratings, both concerned with the company's dipping margins.

Maybe they're right, but it's funny that these analysts have held onto their bearish positions even as the stock has surged from $30 to $68 in less than a month (shows you what analysts know)! Analysts like their cushy jobs, so they can't go out on a limb and say something like, "Wait a minute, this latest surge really just makes up for the crash that was caused by investigation concerns. Now that that's cleared up, maybe this one's got more in the tank -- especially considering that while LDK was tied down all throughout October, November and the first half of December, other solar plays like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), Suntech Power (NYSE: STP), Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWR) and Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) have all doubled and more."

Continue reading LDK Solar has further upside potential

Cypress Semiconductor: Ridiculously undervalued

Last week we spoke about data storage giant EMC Corp. (NYSE:EMC) being way undervalued, based on its core business plus its holding in VMWare (NYSE:VMW). Today, I'd like to focus on another stock that appears to be trading at a big discount to actual value.


Cypress Semiconductor
(NYSE:CY), a chip company, trades with a market cap of about $6.3 billion, and has shown decent revenue growth. It holds a 53% share in Sunpower Corp. (NASDAQ:SPWR), which makes solar panels and cells. Sunpower has been flying ever since its IPO, and currently trades at a market cap of $13.2 billion. This makes Cypress's share in Sunpower around $6.9 billion. I am aware that in situations like this the parent company will rarely trade based on the full value of its holdings, but this is a bit silly. It's not like Cypress's core business stinks.

"Assuming we do not encounter any major macroeconomic disruptions, we are well-positioned to sustain substantial revenue gains into 2008," Cypress CEO T. J. Rodgers said. This doesn't sound like a business that is being valued at negative $600 million (approx.).

Yesterday, Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer noted that Cypress alone is worth somewhere around $2 billion. In a perfect world that should give Cypress a market cap near $9 billion. Again, I understand that we don't live in a perfect world, but at a 40% discount, Cypress looks like a nice, cheap play.

Disclosure: Writer holds stock in EMC. Writer has clients who own CY, but does not own it personally. He holds no position in any other stock mentioned as of 11/8/07.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com.

Analyst initiations: Restaurant sector, AMSC and FSLR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The restaurant sector, American Semiconductor and First Solar were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Friedman Billings resumed coverage of Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) with Outperform ratings and a $30 target and a $46 target and Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB) with a Market Perform rating and $25.50 target.
  • American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target at Jefferies, as they believe repeat orders for wind turbine electrical systems could drive rapid revenue growth from 2008-2010.
  • CIBC resumed coverage of First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) with a Sector Performer rating, as they believe shares are already pricing in the company's 2009 EPS potential.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) with an Underweight rating.
  • US Steel (NYSE: X) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating and $117 target at CIBC.
  • JP Morgan started SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) with an Overweight rating and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) with a Neutral rating.

SunPower Corp. (SPWR): Here comes the sun?

It doesn't take a genius to realize that the time may well be here to start investing in alternative energy sources. Solar energy, the cleanest and most renewable source of electrical power, has long been thought of as a bit of a pipe dream -- good in principle but not as easy to put into practice. But SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR), the Silicon Valley-based manufacturer of solar electrical systems for homes and businesses, shows us there might be something new under the sun.

SunPower's 15 years of research and development have put it at the forefront of its field in both form and function: Its innovative technologies generate up to 50% more power than conventional solar energy systems, and its sleek black panels look so good they now grace the roof of the new Shiseido factory in New Jersey. With an exceptional product and lower overhead than its competitors due to its outsourced production facilities in Southeast Asia, SunPower looks to be able to shine brightly among its bigger competitors like Sharp or Nanosolar.

Clearly, SunPower is doing something right. Its recently-announced third quarter earnings show that revenue for the company is up 34% this quarter -- and over 250% from last year. And, if the company's estimates are to be believed, next year looks to be even brighter, with new product lines and new facility contracts on the horizon.

Continue reading SunPower Corp. (SPWR): Here comes the sun?

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Last updated: July 06, 2008: 07:57 AM

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