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Chasing Value: Corporate America Hoarding $1.6 Trillion

The Apple (AAPL) iPhone and iPad are all the rage and the demand exceeds the supply. The supply produced in China is where we are sending a lot of our money -- stimulus money.

Ongoing discussions about whether the federal government should, or should not start priming the economic pump again with a another $750 billion got me thinking: what happened to the first stimulus money?

The money did not evaporate. It did not go up in smoke, and contrary to popular belief, Congress did not eat it, try as they might. If it still exists then why would the economy need more -- and the debt burden that goes with it?

Continue reading Chasing Value: Corporate America Hoarding $1.6 Trillion

Fiscal Stimulus Helped Stabilize U.S. Economy

A year into the U.S.'s record $787 billion fiscal stimulus, which will in fact total an $862 billion stimulus package, here's where the nation stands:
  • The free-fall in employment rolls has stopped. While the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to an unacceptable 9.7%, the unemployment rate would have been much higher without the roughly $800 billion in economic activity generated by the stimulus.
  • Tens of thousands of local police officers, fire fighters, teachers, and other public service personnel have retained their jobs -- helping to stabilize the local economies where these civil servants work and live.

Continue reading Fiscal Stimulus Helped Stabilize U.S. Economy

China's Imports and Exports Surge, Helping to Fuel Global Recovery

Fueled by a $586 billion stimulus package, Chinese exports rose in December for the first time in 14 months, while imports surged to a record 55.9%.

Here are the numbers:

  • Exports rose $130.7 billion, while imports rose $112.3 billion.
  • The trade surplus was $18.4 billion.
  • For the full year, Chinese exports fell 16% and imports were down 11.2%.
  • China reported the first decline in oversees shipments in 25 years.

Continue reading China's Imports and Exports Surge, Helping to Fuel Global Recovery

White House claims 650,000 jobs saved by stimulus: are these numbers really accurate?

This morning, the White House reported that President Obama's stimulus package has created or saved 650,000 jobs -- of course, this time the Obama Administration promises that the new figures will be "more accurate" than in the past. As for the jobs saved or created, the administration based its finds on roughly $150 billion in spending from the $787 billion stimulus package. These "more accurate" numbers are taken from state reports and private companies. The White House did note that the actual number of jobs created thus far is "likely closer to 1 million" because this report looked at only $150 billion of the $339 billion invested in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds spent.

Continue reading White House claims 650,000 jobs saved by stimulus: are these numbers really accurate?

Warren Buffett, tells us more!

This morning Warren Buffett was interviewed and said he would be in favor of the federal government passing legislation for a second stimulus bill -- increasing the money supply again by gargantuan proportions.

While "my pal" Warren got plenty of ink (and pixels) for his comments it left me wanting more. Buffett has the most to gain, and the most to lose -- and at the same time he cannot really lose.

Since Buffett has so many billions of dollars and controls billions more, and influences still more in the hundreds of billions, he clearly has been and continues to be negatively affected by our economic firestorm more than almost any other individual could be.

Continue reading Warren Buffett, tells us more!

Warren Buffett calls for a second stimulus package

There has been a lot of chatter lately about the possibility of a second stimulus package for America, and now it has received the blessing of Warren Buffett.

On this morning's Good Morning America (on ABC), Buffett said, "I think that a second one [stimulus package] may well be called for ... you hope it doesn't get watered down in many ways." Buffett leveled criticism at the first stimulus bill, calling it "sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having a bunch of candy mixed in."

Continue reading Warren Buffett calls for a second stimulus package

The Obama administration 'misread' the economy, says Joe Biden

God bless good ole' Joe Biden. The vice president has opened his mouth and stated that the Obama administration "misread how bad the economy was." At the same time, the veep said that the administration stands by its stimulus package and believes that the plan will create more jobs. Biden made this statement on ABC television's This Week, claiming that the nation's 9.5% unemployment rate is "much too high."

Biden noted that the figures the group used in January were "the consensus figures and most of the blue chip indexes out there." Biden added, "We misread how bad the economy was, but we are now only about 120 days into the recovery package," he also claimed that more jobs will be created in coming months.

Continue reading The Obama administration 'misread' the economy, says Joe Biden

Google's PowerMeter will monitor your power

It seems that we are moving ever closer to the home of tomorrow that we were promised in those Tom & Jerry cartoons (remember those?). Search giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) announced that it will enter into the burgeoning "smart grid" business, which will help reduce electrical energy consumption.

How will the technology work? Well, GOOG has developed a free service called PowerMeter, which consumers can use to track energy usage while it is being consumed in their homes or businesses. Don't worry, this isn't some Big Brother situation, GOOG is not becoming the all-powerful Oz here. According to the head of GOOG's philanthropy arm (yes, they have one), the technology will "depend on a whole ecosystem of utilities, device makers and policies that would allow consumers to have detailed access to their home energy use."

Continue reading Google's PowerMeter will monitor your power

Mortgage applications drop to eight-year low as buyers wait for government incentives

Mortgage applications fell almost 25% last week with new loan applications for home purchases hitting an eight-year low, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. People continue to sit on the sidelines, waiting for prices to drop. Who wants to buy a home today if the price for that home might be lower soon after the deal closes?

Adding to that wait-and-see attitude are some major incentives that could be part of the stimulus package making its way through Congress. The biggest incentive of them all is a Senate provision that would give all home buyers a $15,000 tax credit. Who wouldn't wait to see if that provision survives the House/Senate negotiations?

Continue reading Mortgage applications drop to eight-year low as buyers wait for government incentives

Why the Treasury should rethink its rescue plan

While Washington wrangles over $820 billion to stimulate the economy, the Fed and the Treasury have already invested or guaranteed $9 trillion to keep the financial system from imploding. For some strange reason, this much bigger figure seems to fly out the door with no public debate; little clear idea of how it's being spent; or what benefit it's creating. Now the Treasury is poised to announce its own plan to rescue the financial system. I think that plan needs work.

However, the Treasury plan will not be announced as originally scheduled on Monday because there seems to be a concern that it would complicate the passage of the stimulus plan. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) has estimated that it would cost $4 trillion to absorb all the banks' troubled mortgage and consumer debt.

Will Treasury propose a plan to use government funds to do this absorbing? If so, it would mark the biggest example in American history of letting private interests reap profits from their bad decisions -- in the form of keeping their bonuses which total about $100 billion over the last several years -- while sticking the public with the resulting losses which so far exceed $1 trillion.

Continue reading Why the Treasury should rethink its rescue plan

Closing Bell: Stimulus package hopes trump ghastly unemployment numbers

Today's rally came on strong as horrible unemployment data showed the need for a much stronger stimulus package. Expect a big package Monday, or at least expect a huge sell-off in many banks and financials if not. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:


Dow 8,280.59 +217.52 (2.70%)
S&P 500 868.56 +22.71 (2.68%)
Nasdaq 1,591.71 +45.47 (2.94%)

Continue reading Closing Bell: Stimulus package hopes trump ghastly unemployment numbers

Buy American -- yes or no?

Do you agree with the "Buy American" provision in the U.S. stimulus package The House of Representatives recently approved? It would cover all the steel and iron used in the "shovel ready" projects.

As you might guess, all the free traders came out of the wood work. They are afraid of getting countries like China upset, saying the "Buy American" measure would be a move toward protectionism.

Continue reading Buy American -- yes or no?

Can Obama plan add four million jobs?

President-elect Barack Obama has said his $700 billion stimulus package will add three million jobs to the economy. Skeptics don't think this is possible because the recession has grown stronger at a speed most economists did not anticipate.

Now, Obama's people think he can do ever better. According to the AP, "President-elect Barack Obama countered critics with an analysis Saturday by his economic team showing that a program of tax cuts and spending like he's proposed would create up to 4.1 million jobs." That math is hard to defend.

The economy lost 540,000 jobs in December. Some experts say it could stay on that pace for the first half of this year. If so, the economy will drop another three million jobs. Certainly looking at the full year, the three million number is certainly reasonable.

Much of the Obama plan is based on building out infrastructure for the energy grid, medical IT, and public works. Programs of that magnitude could take several quarters to get in place. They will involve complex logistics and new agencies to supervise them. By the time most of that is up and running, it could be near to the close of the year.

The reasons that adding four million jobs in America is unlikely is that the economy will shed jobs faster than a stimulus package can ad them, certainly during the period when the economy may be taking its hardest hit. Obama can't fill in that hole fast enough, let alone build a mountain on top of it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a editor at 247wallst.com.

Obama's 'Buy American' Plan -- and why it's stupid

As President-elect Barack Obama prepares his economic stimulus package, his advisers are looking into inserting a "Buy American" plank. An Obama spokesperson told Bloomberg that "We are reviewing the buy American proposal and we are committed to a plan that will save or create 3 million jobs, including jobs in manufacturing."

Earlier this week, I wrote about the fallacy of job creation and "job saving." It sounds nice politically but it is, in aggregate, bad policy.

The Bloomberg piece contains a number of quotes from participants that are troubling. Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen said that "we obviously want to focus our investments in areas where American industry will benefit." Van Hollen added that the stimulus is aimed at "generating American jobs."

Here's the thing: Taxpayer money should be used for the benefit of the taxpayers, and projects and infrastructure investments should be chosen based on their merit -- with job creation as a side effect.

Taking an enormous amount of money and spending it unnecessarily to create jobs while simultaneously enhancing the waste with a "Buy American" provision is just a bad idea. It would be a bad idea if we had the money and it's even worse because we don't.

Would you believe that $600 billion dollars has been put into the US economy?

Ben Bernake has initiated the biggest cash infusion in Federal Reserve history -- a stunning $600 billion dollars that has been put into the US economy.

How did he do it? The Federal Reserve has been buying Treasury securities, which creates a credit on bank balance sheets and thus adds new money to the banking system. This in turn allows the banks to use the money for loans and mortgages. Plus, the Fed has been active with offering US Treasuries at auction, which have been scooped up by eager investors. Just today the "bid to cover" in the Treasury auctions was 4.4 percent. That means that there were 4 times more bids than the securities offered on auction. Investors are seeking safety in US Treasuries and are willing to accept a near zero rate of return.

So is this strategy going to work? The problem is that individual buying of US Treasuries does little to stimulate the economy. What is happening is a shift from lower quality securities into the safety of US government backed securities. A devastating side effect of these actions is that it drives down the prices of other lower quality securities.

One may guess that eventually this excess cash will work its way back into the equity markets but for now we are in a holding pattern.

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Last updated: May 24, 2013: 03:12 AM

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