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High-tech home gadgets: As housing fades, could these stocks shine?

Even as the housing boom fades, there's an argument to be made that people will get more interested in fixing up the house they have now that they are less obsessed with flipping condos in Florida.

Of course, that may not apply to the homeowners who are having trouble making payments on their hiked-up adjustable rate mortgages. But since the rich only get richer these days, it stands to reason that there would be more people willing and able to spend thousands on the sort of home appliance you could just as easily pay a few hundred for at Sears.

That makes investing in the companies that make high-tech home gadgets (see AOL slide show of some of the latest gear) an interesting proposition. If the housing market really tanks (it hasn't yet, I'd argue), these stocks would be somewhat insulated since none of them are direct plays on real estate. But if the housing market shakes its current limp and picks up steam, companies that make expensive gear for the digital home could do quite well. Meantime, some of these stocks are much cheaper than they were a short while ago.

Continue reading High-tech home gadgets: As housing fades, could these stocks shine?

Stock pickers: Happy days are here again

Each bull market has its unique way of demonstrating enthusiasm for stocks. In the late 1920s, it was stock market chatter at the local barbershop that was an indication of stock market excesses. In the 1990s, The Beardstown Ladies, an Illinois-based investment club filled with seniors, graced the covers of news publications.

What about this bull market? It appears it is jock stock pickers. Lenny Dykstra, of the 1986 New York Mets World Series championship team, writes for the TheStreet.com in its News & Analysis section. What does Lenny write about? The buying and selling of options on semiconductor and related stocks. Wow! That's not too risky.

It is time to take all those MBA diplomas and throw them out the window. Forget Graham & Dodd and the Efficient Market Hypothesis, go out and sell naked puts with Lenny Dykstra.

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods

The ninth name in my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS). Dick's is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and was actually established in 1948. The original concept was revamped and expanded during the past four years, and the company is on a high-growth trajectory. Dick's will be the most dominating purveyor of sporting goods and apparel in the United States.

Dick's stock closed at $53.40 on Friday and has a market capitalization of $2.8 billion. Dick's currently operates 294 stores, most in the eastern United States. The estimated revenue base for the fiscal year ending January 2008 is $3.8 billion, and for earnings per share I am estimating at $2.40. My January 2009 revenue and earnings per share estimates call for $4.5 billion and $2.95.

Dick's is taking advantage of a very fractured market. The preponderance of sporting goods sales occur in the big box retailers like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) or Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). It's simply a "small department" for these huge general retailers. The other big competitors have been mom-and-pop stores and a few other larger concepts that have struggled mightily. Dick's is both the growth engine and the consolidator in the sporting goods space. The company has room to grow to 1,100-1,200 stores over the next decade. In 2005, Dick's acquired popular Midwestern retailer Galyan's and with it, the terrific locations.

Sporting goods that Dick's offers range from the usual baseball, football, basketball, and hockey equipment and apparel to the eclectic tastes in golf, fishing, hunting, and more. Dick's is attuned to the electronic world and offers the best line of navigational equipment for boaters and fishermen. What Dick's offers to the sportsman is total selection and information by extremely well-trained salespeople.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods

The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Discussion

I have written up eight companies that have a chance to be among the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years and I thought it might be time for some discussion. You, the readers have sent in quite a bit of responses to the first six names. Most of your responses have been very positive and I certainly appreciate it. But many of you have been raising questions that I believe need a general response.

Let's put a few ideas and myths to rest once and for all.

The top 25 for the NEXT 25 years are bound to be smaller capitalization companies. By definition, they have to be. I recommend a number of companies on my website that are of a larger capitalization, but to make the list, the law of large numbers is against the larger cap names. If a $20 billion market cap names five folds over the next 10 years, that's a great return and no one should be unhappy. But if a $500 million market cap name goes to $20 billion in value, that's a 40 times return. So, the names will be of a smaller cap nature.

With high-growth companies early in their development, don't get hung up on lack of dividends. High growth companies do not pay dividends, nor should they. You want every penny of after-tax earnings to be plowed back into the business. Mature companies tend to pay cash dividends because their growth rates have slowed, the business lines are well-funded, and the excess cash is returned to shareholders. The downfall is that the stocks will not grow as fast in value as a high-growth company that is executing well. The big joke among portfolio managers when Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) declared its one time $3 dividend and initiated a quarterly dividend was that the party was over! When is the funeral? Microsoft was signaling that the high-growth, plow the earnings back into the business era was over. The stock traded sideways for nearly three years as Microsoft tried to get its footing back.

Continue reading The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Discussion

Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing

Last week I was reviewing investment banks for potential inclusion in one of our portfolios. I looked at numerous factors. Initially, what got me thinking about this sector was opportunity for growth versus good value of prices for the shares. At the time I concluded that Bear Stearns Cos (NYSE: BSC) was the best value with the greatest upside. It was hovering in the $153 to $156 range when I put in a limit order at $148 per share, good-till-canceled (GTC). After enough headlines about sub-prime lenders and financial sector woes that cast a giant shadow on most financial stocks, BSC reached my limit.

Last week the quality companies went down with the junk which should not happen, but it often does. Historically, this has presented me with wonderful opportunities to make a good buy and indeed I got scooped up at our $148 figure. Yesterday BSC closed at $153.83.

This morning, Brent Archer posted about Goldman Sachs, reaffirming one of Cramer's nine picks of the year. Allan Halprin also called our attention to The Savviest Stock Picker in America -- Ken Heebner of CGM Capital -- a must read. Heebner favors most of the investment banks right now. I just favor BSC. Here are the tantalizing figures for your consideration:

Continue reading Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing

Should you really love Goldman Sachs or Starbucks forever?

Just in time for Valentine's Day, Kiplinger's has published a list of "Stocks to Love Forever." I have two problems with that headline. One, you should never fall in love with any stock. Moreover, there are few stocks worth holding forever.

This is, of course, a gimmick. Personal finance magazines are filled with them because there are only so many ways you can write "10 surefire stock picks that will make you rich" or "Haven't made a killing in the market? Then you are a loser."

Anyway, the article picks out stocks that lots and lots of people like, which isn't particularly brave. That means that the good news may already be factored into the price. When reviewing these picks, it's important to remember that while these companies may be great, their stocks may not be the best buy right now.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) is up 50 percent, Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) is up 72 percent and Stryker Corp. (NYSE:SYK) is up 33 percent. The two laggards in the article are Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) , which is down 1.2 percent, and York Water Co. (NASDAQ:YORW), which is off 4 percent.

Most analysts consider Starbucks a buy. The median target price for the coffee chain is $43.12, about $10 ahead of where it's currently trading. York Water, which isn't widely followed, is a different story. Only on of the three analysts who follow the company consider it a buy, the two others rate it a hold. Only one analyst has set a target price and its $20. York Water is trading at about $17.

Let me repeat what every market pundit says, don't fall in love with any stock. Once you let emotions decide your investment strategy, you are asking for big trouble.

Cramer says buy Diageo, I say WAIT

Yesterday James Cramer went gaga about Diageo plc ADS (NYSE:DEO): His jubilance about this stock befitting his MAD MONEY antics, he gave many reasons why it has plenty of room to grow, even though it is up 30% since he made the "good call."

Diageo has been on my watch list for a couple of months and I considered it for one of my 2007 recommendations, but it did not make the cut. I looked at it again last night after perusing Jon Oggs report. Most of Cramer's discussion points are valid so I can only look at the fundamentals. I like this stock better at $70 than I do at $80 per share. And I liked it even more when Cramer bought it under $70. It has had a good run, but I would not buy it after the Cramer "pop"...in January, when the overall market is up, and the stock is at an all-time high, or close to it.

The price-to earnings ratio is only average at 16 to 17, but the price-to-sales ratio is too high for my taste at 4.71, especially when I am looking at other opportunities with lower P/E's and P/S's near 1.0. DEO with a price-to-book of 6.75 also looks expensive to me. On the positive side, the return on equity and invested capital are great and the dividend yield approaching 3% is stupendous.

The opportunities in China and India are everything Cramer says, but there is no rush. We have seen from the slow methodical starts other companies have made in these countries that there is time. A lot of time. These opportunities will last for decades and DEO does not have that many competitors with comparable resources. From my perspective it is worth waiting. There are better opportunities. Perhaps when Cramer stops talking about it and we drift into a calmer February, or the annual summer doldrums soften the market, Diageo will move up on my list.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.
Be sure to read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Dow Jones OK, but Dow Chemical better

I expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will continue its upward trend in 2007 although not by the same margin that it did in 2006. On the other hand, I expect The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) to beat the DJIA and be one of the success stories of the year. I outlined many reasons for this in Dow Chemical: a solid pick for 2007. Three weeks have passed since this story was published, but I am feeling even better about it today than I did originally.

I have already outlined the fundamental financial data, stock buybacks and dividends, but there is another trend that will contribute to stronger returns: The fall in oil prices, a major cost component in many of its 3500 products, is down by 30%. This should be a very positive influence on DOW's bottom line during the next few quarters. While lower oil prices reduce product costs, lower overall energy prices will also contribute to profits because DOW has major infrastructure as an old line company. Unlike services companies and Internet companies that keep plant and operations to a minimum, companies like DOW pay a penalty when energy prices go up and receive a benefit when they go down. It is as if they were running a brokerage account with margin leverage; the good times and bad times are exaggerated.

We have already witnessed James Cramer do an about face on technology stocks and he has started to turn more Bearish on the overall market after being all hyped up just two weeks ago. My picks will haunt me all year. I did not make one pick I could not live with, this year, and for the next ten.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure and read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Cramer pumps Tech, then hates it days later

My co-blogger Jon Ogg must feel like a play-by-play announcer at a hockey game. Since last week, on January 12, 2007, he posted Cramer sticks with tech and is against oil, only to post a few days later, Cramer really hits tech as a sell, gives five names to hold. Last week held some upside for Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) according to Cramer ... not any more ... he has new information. Is this a story of Cramer vs Cramer where he plays both parts?

Following Cramer is fun and might sometimes be rewarding. He knows a lot about the stock market and has some valuable insights to share; so there is an education to be had by those who can decipher the jargon and tolerate the antics. For me, it is more entertainment; I liked his radio broadcasts much better.

I think keeping up with all his "picks" or "calls" is like standing on a whirling top trying to maintain balance and enjoy the excitement of the moment but knowing it will slow down sometime soon and you will topple over.

I disagree with Cramer about the upside in 2007. He is overly optimistic by my measure. We will have an up year but the road map will be similar to last year and we should all be buying solid companies that pay dividends.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure and read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Huaneng Power on FIRE and I don't know why - I hate that

Huaneng Power International (ADS NYSE: HNP) was up yesterday and it is up again this morning. More than 5% in two days. It has been on the rise since we acquired it last summer at $26.35. I have written about this company several times in the last few months and it is one of my seven picks for 2007: Huaneng Power: Get into China for 2007.

In the past I have pointed out that HNP would be a much more advisable investment than Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which is the current market "darling". This has come to pass and we (my investment company) are up so much that HNP is now one of our top three holdings. As of this moment it is trading at $38.74, a 47% rise. This would have net a 94% annualized return if you had acquired it when I first wrote about it, as it has for me. But there is more. You cannot ignore a stock that pays a dividend currently at 3.3% on top of that kind of return.

The point of my story is not that this was a great pick, or that HNP still has decades of growth ahead of it. The point of my story is that sometimes a stock may rise significantly for the reasons that made you believe in it in the first place. However, when a stock appreciates at the rate that HNP has with no spectacular story, no stock purchase announcement from someone like Buffett, no analyst calls, no spectacular earth shattering contract, it makes you wonder what's going on.

I often wonder what is going on behind the scenes. Is there some foreign intrigue? Is there manipulation? Is there something I should know about but cannot find out? I hate it when that happens.

It could be just the market playing catch-up to where the stock should have been after lingering between $27 and $31 for three years. I believe this is what technical analysts (I'm not a believer in that) call 'building a base.' As deep value investors we bought at what we thought was a very cheap price, allowing for some safety to the down side and lots of room above; and I made my readers aware of it at that time. I wish I had more specific information about what has caused the sudden rise in the stock, but I don't. I do know that I am not a market mover, just a small investor -- but I'm glad I made this one.

Did anyone reading this blog buy HNP in the past six months? What made you invest?

If you want to learn more about my thoughts on HNP click the story above. If you want to see the seven picks read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is his seventh of seven for 2007.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) This is an unbelievable value in my opinion, and even more incredible because it has been hiding in plain sight. This stock has gotten some attention because it has a P/E of 5.8. That will get a lot of people's attention. But the metrics for this company are amazing, top to bottom. I have been discussing low P/S ratios in this story and for VLO the figure is 0.39. Yesterday this stock closed at $52.01. That means if the price tripled, to $156.03, yes tripled!, the P/S would only be 1.17 which is very very low. Try finding any other large cap companies with that low a P/E and P/S. There are not many, and they are usually stocks of companies that are out of favor, and deserve to be.

There is much more to the story. The book value, a favorite of Graham and Buffett, is 1.83. Well, it is not less than 1.0, which is what they would be looking for. But consider this: VLO has hard assets like refineries and land, whose book value has to be tremendously understated, since they are all old ledger entries. That tells me the 'real' book value is far greater than it would be if the company's assets were re-appraised to current value -- meaning that 1.83 might very well approach 1.0.

Continue reading Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007

Time Warner: clear direction means clear pick for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) is his sixth of seven for 2007.

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) On this one James Cramer and I agree 100%, but I was there first! We are in at $12.10. I also agree with Cramer that TWX could easily be $28 to $30 per share in a year. The company has cleared out a lot of old baggage, reduced debt, bought back shares, completed the acquisition of Adelphia, now Time Warner Cable and cleaned up the Comcast relationship. Management has made bold moves with AOL, radically changing the business plan, now offering free service and continue to focus each business segment. Even BloggingStocks.com has grown tremendously since TWX bought Weblogs, Inc. in October 2005.

There are some notes of caution because few stories are perfect. When I first noted the value in TWX months ago its P/S was 1.24 -- the lowest of our BloggingStocks -- and I said, very worthy of consideration. Now it is 2.34, so this is not what is driving my interest. The P/E of 19.87 is no bargain, either, and the ROE, ROA and ROIC are way to low for me to even discuss. What I think is compelling about the story is that TWX is just now beginning to come out of its shell. Parson's honeymoon period is long over, new large shareholder Icahn is looking over everyone's shoulder, the cable business is ready to rock big time, and AOL finally has clear direction and a rudder. And BloggingStocks ... well, who knows -- great editors, great team, great potential!

TWX does pay a dividend yield of 1% but it should be higher. If it does not increase ROIC than the company should give the money back to us, the shareholders. I expect that we will see the metrics improve significantly over the next few quarters as it reports growing earnings. (Read the Company Profile.)

PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) is his fifth of seven for 2007.

PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) Okay, I admit it, I love this company! I bought it at $44 and again at $55 per share. You could have bought in at anytime in the last two years and made good money. This is one of my best buys ever and I have been beating this drum promoting it since I have been writing for AOL, so if you never bought in, it was not because you did not have any notice. When I first mentioned PTR about seven months ago it was around $100. Its all time high is $140.49 and it closed last night only pennies less $140.42. That is an annualized return of 70+%. I give Barron's full credit for bringing this company to my attention, and they did so prior to the release of information from Berkshire Hathaway indicating that Warren Buffett purchased $1.3 billion dollars of the company. Give Buffett credit though, he did see it first...again.

I cannot tout PTR as being a bargain based on the P/S of 3.51. There are a lot of people following this company and, the faster it has gone up, the more attention it gets, as it hits new highs every few days. What I can say is there is a chance it will come down in the next few months after an earnings report and some profit-taking, or maybe some relief in the price of oil. When it does I would jump in with both feet. When I first examined this company and its future potential I found a P/E of 9.5, a P/S of just over 1.0 offering a 5.4% yield or there abouts. So in this world where there are no sure things I thought I had found one. You can be absolutely sure that the people of China will use more oil tomorrow than they did yesterday, more this year than last, and that will go on for many decades!

Continue reading PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007

Huaneng Power: Get into China for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Huaneng Power International (NYSE:HNP) is his fourth of seven for 2007.

Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP) Yes, I know you have heard me push this stock before. If you regularly read my stories you have heard it many times. This is one of my favorite companies and, unless something changes, it will remain so for the rest of my life! It is particularly attractive in a Roth IRA where you can collect the dividend tax free. So lets start with the yield of 3.44%, that's nice. Add to that you have some foreign exposure, but through the NYSE. Now consider it is the largest power company in the largest, fastest-growing market.

Need more, Barron's (my favorite read) gave me another reason to examine HNP for investment, although unwittingly. The magazine wrote an article highlighting several Chinese REITS that have done extremely well and suggested the sector has plenty of room to run for years to come. Well, these REITS are all listed on the Hong Kong exchange. That is a place I do not feel comfortable doing any trading for the time being. I also do not feel I have enough information to distinguish one from another, despite Barron's worthy attempt to educate me. But consider this: no matter whether one or all continue to develop properties successfully and make tons of money, they will all need power. HNP is most likely to be the provider of that power.

China has so much to do in the next 30 to 50 years in expanding its economy, that HNP seems solid even if you overpay now. Since I started proclaiming this as a must-own stock it is up over 40% in real terms and much more on an annualized basis. The shares have climbed so much (you can't see it but I'm taking a bow, thank you very much) that I must express a word of caution. I bought in at $26.35 and it closed at $36.35 last night. This remains a stock to own but the entry point is harder to know, so I am going to recommend you dollar-cost average and buy shares on a periodic basis, so that in the long run, you are on board this train, even if you do not always get a short-term bargain. It is at an all-time high and that is not usually the best time to buy. But we are not trying to time the market, just appreciate it over time. (Read the Company Profile.)

Home Depot: Despite Nardelli, an asset-rich pick for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) is his third of seven for 2007.

The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) -- Like many of my picks, you will find I look for out-of-favor companies with depressed stock prices and compelling stories, while ignoring most analyst banter. Home Depot has been buying back shares all year, and on December 14, 2006 it announced it would buy back another $3 billion worth -- why? While sales and profits are growing, its same-store-sales have been depressed by the reduction in housing starts and declining home sales in many markets. Its shareholders have been restless and a buyback is a quick way to add shareholder value. It also shows confidence in the current value and supports it at the same time. HD closed yesterday at $39.56.

Starting again with the P/S ratio of 1.05 we find another eye-opener, and it has a below average P/E of 13.66 with an above average yield of 2.31%. Again, we find the ROE, ROA and ROIC all top the P/E: Return on Equity (TTM) 22.98 Return on Assets (TTM) 14.21 and Return on Investments (TTM) 20.7.

Continue reading Home Depot: Despite Nardelli, an asset-rich pick for 2007

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