Boeing (NYSE: BA) settled its seven-week old strike with machinists agreeing to a four-year contract. In the meantime, the company has lost precious time building planes including its Dreamliner, which is already over a year late for its first delivery. World airlines that have ordered the new aircraft are already in a snit.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "During the standoff, both sides dug in over issues such as job security and who had ultimate authority to run the factories, even as the national economy was undergoing a major upheaval." In other words, Boeing undercut the value of its shares when it could have settled on a similar deal a month ago. During most negotiations management knows how far it is willing to go, but holds out hoping labor will back down. In this case, that did not happen.
While Boeing management has been fiddling around, the company's stock has dropped to $42, near a 52-week low, and down from a period high of almost $99. Boeing faces angry customers, many of whom are asking for compensation for planes that will be late.
Boeing let labor shut it down while the economy went to hell in a hand-basket and its rival Airbus took whatever advantage of that it could. Boeing has a huge back-order of planes. Giving into the union would not have cost it much in profits. It has too many sales to fulfill.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The fight between Boeing (NYSE: BA) and its machinists may go on a long, long time. While that may be bad for the union, it is much worse for Boeing. Its customers expect prompt delivery of fuel-efficient planes, especially the new Dreamliner. Boeing's management gambled on getting the union to knuckle under and lost.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "As far as our members are concerned, we are in this one for the long haul," said Mark Blondin, aerospace coordinator and lead negotiator for the 26,800 machinists. The statement does not sound conciliatory.
Shareholders are getting the worst of it. Boeing trades at about $57, down from a 52-week high over over $107. With delivery delays, revenue is certain to drop.
Boeing's case with the unions is weak. The company claims it cannot give machinists a good three-year deal because earnings may not be strong that far out. With the company's tremendous backlog, it would be hard to imagine that being true.
Boeing's management will not be remembered well by history. They thought they had leverage in a situation where they had almost none.
However, Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer said what counts in work stoppages is not so much company/sector precedent, but "the reality of the facts on the ground ... the nature of the issues involved." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.
"The two sides are reasonably close on the standard pay increase, it's pension payment increases and the use of outside contractor for work that the two sides are far from agreement on," Bauer said. "Boeing is booming now and the IAM wants some assurance that their retirees' pension will not go the way of other corporate pension plans, which were revised lower as corporations faced tougher times. The two sides are still pretty far apart on that issue, as well as on the use of outside contractors." Boeing's shares rose 80 cents to $64.71 in Tuesday morning trading.
Given the above, a strike of less than a month "would be a moral victory," Bauer said.
The New York Times answered a question I had regarding how much striking International Association of Machinists (IAM) workers will get paid during their strike. The answer is that after the first two weeks, IAM workers take a huge pay cut. And though Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) will lose $100 million a day during the strike, striking may be more painful for workers.
The Times reports that "if the strike goes on for more than two weeks, union members will begin drawing $150 a week in strike pay. The typical pay for a union member is $27 an hour, or about $56,000 a year before overtime and bonuses."
If my understanding is right, the workers get no pay during the first two weeks of the strike and then take an 86% cut from their normal pay each week thereafter -- excluding overtime and bonuses. (This assumes that they normally make $1,077 a week for 52 weeks a year and that the $150 a week strike pay is pretax). With the high cost of food and gasoline these days, that kind of pay cut is going to hurt IAM members.
At 3 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow, 27,000 members of Boeing International Association of Machinists (IAM) will strike Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) according to Bloomberg News. As I posted this morning, IAM member anger is so deep that I was not surprised to learn that the federal mediator called in to find a solution could not avert a strike. The cost to Boeing is estimated to total $100 million a day -- reducing its earnings per share (EPS) by a penny a day.
IAM's website said, "Despite meeting late into the night and throughout the day, continued contract talks with the Boeing company did not address our issues," according to Bloomberg. And it quotes a Boeing spokesperson as saying, "We worked hard with the union and mediator. We pursued different options, but in the end we were too far apart to reach an agreement. We're open for further discussion but no talks are scheduled."
No details have emerged about whether Boeing changed the terms of its proposed contract. However, it appears likely that given the six points of disagreement about which I posted this morning, this strike could last a long time. Bloomberg quotes one Wall Street analyst who calculates that "a month-long strike would shave 31 cents a share off Boeing's EPS and cost $2.8 billion in lost revenue."
The Wall Street Journal reports that Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) factory workers who belong to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) have voted to strike by a wide margin. However, thanks to the intervention of a federal mediator, the two sides have 48 hours to try to work something out. I cannot tell whether they will be able to find common ground.
Eighty-seven percent of IAM's "26,800 machinists rejected a proposed three-year contract that would have given members raises and bonuses totaling $34,000," according to the Journal. Boeing offered each union member a $2,500 signing bonus only if "the contract was ratified on the first vote." IAM's decision not to ratify costs workers that bonus. Boeing proposed an "11% pay raise over the life of the contract, as well as boosting pensions by 14% to $80 a month for each year of service. [The contract would pay the average union member] roughly $65,000 a year before overtime that averages $10,000 a year or more," according to the Journal.
IAM wants a bigger raise, more pension contributions, and lower health care payments. As the Journal wrote, IAM wants "pay raises of at least 13% and a larger pension amount. It also wants Boeing to abandon plans to have workers take on a greater share of certain health-care costs."
Boeing (NYSE: BA) can't take a strike. It has too much depending on the launch of its new Dreamliner. That launch has been delayed three times and carriers are already asking for compensation for their costs due to the fuel-efficient plane being behind schedule.
Boeing has been going at it with its large machinists union and it looks like the two sides have made no progress. According toReuters, the company's "largest labor union said on Friday it advised its members to reject the company's final contract proposal and go forward with a strike this week that could cost the plane maker $3 billion a month."
Boeing's logic is that it does not want to face high costs in the future when its revenue may be lower. But that logic is deeply flawed, and the union knows it. Boeing has a heavy delivery schedule that goes out at least five years for the Dreamliner and other planes. The company also says that deliveries over the next two decades will be strong due largely to demand in Asia.
Boeing management is making a tactical error and shareholders will pay for it. The stock is at $65, but the strike will send it to $50.
This is not the way to kick off the fall production season, typically a time when companies introduce new products and plans. Boeing (NYSE: BA) could lose up to $3.5 billion per month in revenue if a threatened strike by a machinist union occurs next week, USATodayreported Friday.
The potential action by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers could also delay the 787 Dreamliner program and other aircraft programs. About 27,000 machinists in Washington state, Oregon and Kansas would be affected.
Boeing's latest contract offer calls for an 11% pay increase in annual increments of 5%, 3%, and 3%, Bloomberg News reported Friday. Machinists would also get a $2,500 payment if they approve the new contract by September 3.
Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday Boeing "will probably have to increase its offer to the IAM, given what's at stake for Boeing."
"Boeing is in a position where it can increase its labor cost base. Revenue remains strong, with large backorders," Bauer said. "Those facts, plus the fact that Boeing can not afford any more delays in the 787 program, means the IAM has the upper hand in these contract negotiations. I'm sure the machinists don't want a strike, either, so my call would be for Boeing to up its pay raise offer to 6%, 5%, and 5% for a 16% pay increase." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) has been furiously negotiating with its machinist's union to avoid a strike vote by them that could come as early as September 3. Labor's greatest concerns is that Boeing has made a lot of money over the past several years, and workers have seen very little benefit from that.
According to Bloomberg, "The union says workers haven't had raises, except for cost-of-living increases, since 2004 and deserve to share in Boeing's $10.7 billion in profit since then." Boeing is taking the standard large company position: It cannot afford to sharply increase benefits without putting itself in jeopardy if its business slows.
Boeing might want to sharpen its pencil. A strike could cost it another delay for the launch of its new Dreamliner. It has already pushed back that date three times. Airline customers are so upset that some of them have asked for compensation. More delays could up the request for "damages" from carriers who still need the more fuel-efficient airplane.
The winner in a Boeing strike will probably be Airbus. It has had delays of some of its own products, including its huge A380 jumbo jet. But, most of those issues seem to be behind the European company. If Boeing can't deliver planes, Airbus can pick up market share.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Verizon's (NYSE: VZ) talks with labor have gone past their deadline. It is clearly good news that there has been no strike. The bad news is that one could still happen. At least 65,000 telecommunications employees are covered under the agreement being negotiated.
According to Reuters, "Verizon, which has not commented on issues under negotiation, has about 103,000 workers in its telecom unit, which covers residential and small business telephone, broadband and video services."
If the workers walk, Verizon's non-cellular businesses go to hell. Installations of broadband and TV service could come close to being suspended. That means the company's ability to compete with cable TV operations practically goes away. Verizon's customer service would also suffer.
This is probably a fine time to a stay away from the company's stock. It trades at $34, near a 52-week low. A prolonged strike could push the shares below $30.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The list of reasons that oil is trading near $150 a barrel gets longer by the day: speculation, greed at OPEC member countries, rising consumption in India and China and so on.
Perhaps the most worrisome aspect of oil prices is supply interruptions in major exporting nations. Worries about Nigeria and Iran have helped move the cost of crude up over the last few months. Now another big threat can be put on that list.
Oil workers at Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company, have gone out on strike. Brazil is a modestly important supplier of crude, but with the recent discovery of large off-shore deposits, its role is likely to grow.
According to Bloomberg, the strike "may cut Brazilian daily oil output by more than half."
The strike raises two problems, one short term. The psychology of oil prices is so fragile now that even rumors of supply interruptions push crude up. The other, more important problem, is in the future. Brazil's new and significant oil reserves will make the world more dependent on the country for crude. If the workers can strike now to get higher wages, they can strike later. That puts Brazil's output at a level of permanent risk.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Another strike for the entertainment industry. And, it comes just as a recession threatens to cut into TV ad revenue and movie ticket sales. That is not good news for companies like CBS (NYSE: CBS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), which already trade near 52-week lows.
Investors are understandably worried that consumer concerns could hurt entertainment spending. Who has extra money to see "Spider-Man XII"? Marketers often cut budgets for costly broadcast TV ads when the economy looks grim.
Now, the Screen Actors Guild may go on strike when its contract runs out on June 30. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "The two sides have made little progress on key issues including compensation for actors when their work is used on DVD or new media such as the Internet."
Once again, the internet comes up as the one thing entertainment companies should fear. It has been used for illegal downloads of music and movies. Many younger people would rather hang out on YouTube than watch pay-per-view movies online. Now, actors want a portion of internet revenue.
If the actors are not careful, while they are on strike and the entertainment world is shut down, the internet will eat the whole industry.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
After hitting a one-year high of $43.20 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.47 in March. This morning, GM opened at $18.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.63 and a high of $18.34. As of 12:10, GM is trading at $17.63, down 80 cents (-4.0%). The chart for GM looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $25 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in four months as long as GM is below $25 at September expiration. GM would have to rise by more than 43% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
GM hasn't been above $25 since February and has shown resistance around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy gets back on track, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GM might find around $23, where it topped out back in late April.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GM or AXL.
The three things that do the most to push up oil are weakness in the dollar, the dynamics of supply and demand, and natural disasters or manmade disturbances in the pumping of crude. Add to that, if OPEC is right, rampant and wide-spread speculation by traders.
The supply of crude out of the UK has been, for the time being, interrupted by a strike. According to Reuters, the strike over pensions began at a Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, operated by BP (NYSE: BP).
The strike raises the issue of whether Western governments should allow workers in oil fields and on pipelines to strike at all. The availability of oil and the huge jump in price to $120 makes a strong case for calling it a "strategic asset." The term has been applied to crude for many years, but it did not mean much when prices were lower and there was, at least from the standpoint of perception, ample supply.
The government of the U.S. needs to intervene and send the strikers back to work, or replace them, if necessary. Oil at $120 has as much chance of wreaking the economy as the credit crisis. The U.S., Europe, and Japan can only handle the pressure of so much commodity inflation. At some point, fighting inflation will become more important than cutting interest rates. Then, even Solomon will not be able to decide what to do.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Boeing
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At 3 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow, 27,000 members of Boeing International Association of Machinists (IAM) will strike 
Waiting for the other shoe to drop: The looming credit crisis
Closing Bell: Dow down 7.7%; GE, YHOO, MS fall, PGI, MNT soar
Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)
