This post is part of Japan: A Special Report for Investors.

"Japan's tsunami has struck worldwide," says Richard Moroney, the editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, which has maintained a model portfolio of blue chip stocks for over 50 years.

Here, he reviews a number of the top buy recommendations in the newsletter's portfolios to determine the potential risk posed by the recent tragic developments in Japan.

Stocks cited as "Focus List Buys" are are those issues that the service expect to significantly outperform the market over the next 12 months.

Analyst Upgrades

• Ryder (R) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• HCP (HCP) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Hertz Global (HTZ) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Lincoln National (LNC) to buy from neutral and T. Rowe Price (TROW) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Protective Life (PL) and Janus Capital (JNS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• National Instruments (NATI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Team Health (TMH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Analyst Upgrades

• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (MOS) to buy from hold and raised its price target to $78 from $64 citing improving ag fundamentals and the potential for BHP (BHP) to issue a higher bid for Potash (POT), which Citi feels would bode well for Mosaic.
• Cowen upgraded VMware (VMW) to outperform from neutral, citing recent share weakness and the company's significant growth opportunity.
• Citigroup upgraded CareFusion (CFN) with a $29 price target, citing valuation and the potential for margin expansion.
• Pfizer (PFE) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Stryker (SYK) was upgraded to buy from gradually accumulate at Soleil.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $5.50 from $4.25 citing valuation and expectations for the company's competitive position and gross margins to improve.
• Barclays upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing long-term earnings growth as the company benefits from declining charge-offs and credit costs. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
• JPMorgan upgraded Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $22 from $19 citing the FTC approval for the acquisition of Jacobs Ranch mine and valuation.
• Bebe Stores (NASDAQ: BEBE) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK - option chain) stock is falling today after advisors to federal regulators recommended that the company's bone-growth putty for spinal surgery should not be approved for expanded use. The advisors were concerned about a lack of scientific rigor in SYK's clinical trials of the putty. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SYK.

This morning, SYK opened at $33.55. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.34 and a high of $33.89. As of 11:50, SYK is trading at $32.73, down $1.31 (-3.9%). The chart for SYK looks bullish and S&P gives SYK a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

"Stryker (NYSE: SYK) is a bargain at 15.1x next 12-month EPS," says J. Royden Ward, editor of The Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter, a service which focuses on stocks that would be well-suited to the investing strategy of Ben Graham, legendary value investor and mentor to Warren Buffett.

"Stryker develops, manufactures and sells specialty surgical and medical products. Its orthopedic division makes hip, knee and other implants.

"SYK also makes a wide variety of medical products and instruments ranging from hospital beds to medical video cameras, surgical drills and saws, and instruments for implants.

Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) closed at $39.93. MDT is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on November 18. MDT November 40 straddle is priced at $3.50, December 40 is at $5.50. MDT December option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Covidien (NYSE: COV), a medical solutions device provider, closed at $37.07. COV is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 17. COV November 40 straddle is priced at $4.40, December 40 straddle is priced at $6.40. COV December option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) closed at $57.14. ABT December option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK), a medical technology company, closed at $47.70. SYK December option implied volatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

In a choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market, discretion dictates that one looks for companies where the demographics are running in the company's favor. Health care services in the United States is one such sector, and in this category, Stryker Corp (NYSE: SYK) is worth an evaluation.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) is a leading provider of artificial hip, prosthetic knee and trauma products.As one might sense, orthopedic implant demand is robust and looks to remain so in the immediate years ahead, and probably beyond. Not only because the U.S.'s population is aging, but also the population in key international markets.

Analysts see sustained, double-digit earnings growth driven by the above demand and by new product launches. Further, Stryker also has modest pricing power, and analysts also see market share gains in selected business segments. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SYK are $2.40/$2.88.

The risks? A negative change in Medicare reimbursement rates would hurt Stryker's results. The company also remains vulnerable to the emergence of a 'game changer' -- an innovative product launch by a competitor in one of its tech-intensive business lines.

The First Call mean rating for SYK is: Buy [22 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $82.00 [high: $90, low: $74].

Stock Analysis: Stryker is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from SYK's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $48.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) will report third quarter EPS on 10/12.

• Alex Brown says: "Given attractive risk/reward verses our $47 TP, we reiterate Buy."
  
• Investors and analysts have frequently called for the sale of NBC Universal because of its declining revenue and GE's 'Six Sigma' discipline not being compatible with Hollywood sensibilities.
  
• GE October option implied volatility of 24 is above its 26-week average of 20 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK), a medical technology company with a broad range of products in orthopedics and medical specialties, closed $73.14.

• SYK will report EPS on 10/17.
  
• SYK has been frequently subject to unconfirmed buyout chatter.
  
• SYK October option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) volatility elevated at 42 into iPhone. AAPL's iPhone will be in stores on Friday June 29th. Thomas Weisel says: "Checks suggest Macs are strong; iPhone in, just as iPod seems to be peaking; raising estimates." AAPL is expected to report earnings in late July. AAPL July and August option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) implied volatility at elevated into 7/19 earnings and guidance. SYK, a medical technology company with a broad range of products in orthopedics and medical specialties, will report earnings on 7/19. Goldman Sachs CO says: "we are removing SYK from the Americas Investment Buy list. There is no change to our constructive stance on SYK, as the outlook for volume/pricing trends and free cash flow generation remains solid." SYK July option implied volatility of 24 is above its 26-week average of 21 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today are: Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) and General Motors (NYSE: GM).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Smith & Nephew plc (NYSE:SNN) announced the acquisition this morning of Swiss company Plus Orthopedics for $889 million in cash. This will solidify Smith & Nephew's position as the number 4 global player. The other three major firms are Stryker Corp. (NYSE:SYK), Zimmer Holdings (NYSE:ZMH), and soon to be acquired Biomet Inc. (NASDAQ:BMET). Biomet is undergoing due diligence by a group of private equity firms led by the Blackstone Group. The transaction is expected to close by October of this year.

The orthopedic sector has the wind at its back. The approval process for an orthopedic device is rigorous, but not as lengthy as the cardiac device sector. The marketplace is global in nature and the demographics are about to enter the sweet spot.

With 78 million U.S. baby boomers alone, and another 80 million-plus baby boomers in the European markets, the aging of this group is ripe for the sector. New hips, knees, elbows and shoulders will see record recipients as each year unfolds. Besides the basic joint-replacement products, the spinal sector is also expected to see massive growth. Minimally invasive surgical procedures are expanding the addressable market as the risk profile for such surgeries is significantly less. The dread of osteoporosis affects nearly 700,000 women in the United States alone.

Stocks futures are positive in early morning trade, indicating to a similar start for stock.

Stocks might get a push higher today from several done deals, deals in the making, or possible deals. The strengthening dollar against the euro and the yen could also support stocks.

Today marks the beginning of a very busy week. The Federal Reserve will meet tomorrow and announce its decision on interest rates tomorrow at 2:15 p.m. Eastern. By and large, the market doesn't expect the Fed to move interest rates, especially after Friday's job report.

On Thursday, member nations of OPEC will meet. For now, oil prices fell below $62 a barrel ahead of the meeting, as there are mixed signals as to what the members would decide.

Finally, a key inflation indicator, Consumer Price Index, is due to be released Friday morning. Today, however, only wholesale inventories data for October are due for release at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

But, as I mentioned earlier, today the buzz is all about the deals, the ones already signed and the speculated ones:

According to the Financial Times, the Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) might announce a $100 million deal as it takes on a majority stake in Chinese chain HomeWay.

Brazilian steelmaker Companhia Siderugica Nacionale (NYSE:SID) raised its bid for Britain's Corus Group PLC (NYSE:CGA), topping an offer by Tata Steel of India.

British insurer Prudential Plc (NYSE:PUK) received a "very preliminary" approach, possibly from Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), for its Internet-banking business Egg, but rejected it.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) had seen strong interest and fierce bidding for its Aston Martin unit. Speculations are now that the line could sell for more than $1.2 billion.

The New York Times reports that Sabre Holdings Corp. (NYSE:TSG), owner of the Travelocity, is in talks with two groups bidding for company for more than $4 billion.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Harrah's Entertainment Inc.'s (NYSE:HET) board will meet Wednesday to discuss a buyout offer. In what seems to be a separate offer, a group led by Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) and hedge fund D.E. Shaw might also bid for Harrah's.

Smith & Nephew Group Plc (NYSE:SNN), is close to bidding about $11 billion for Biomet Inc. (NASDAQ:BMET). It could face competition from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Stryker Corp. (NYSE:SYK) and Zimmer Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ZMH).

A few other companies with deal stories today: Trimble Navigation (NASDAQ:TRMB) that bought @Road (NASDAQ:ARDI) for $496 million, or $7.50 a share. Gannett Co. (NYSE:GCI) that may sell its U.K. newspaper unit Newsquest. Pearson (NYSE:PSO) and LG.Philips LCD (NYSE:LPL) also made unrelated deals.