sub prime posts
FeedPosted Feb 1st 2008 11:32AM by Aaron Katsman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Personal finance, Stocks to Buy
With all eyes this weekend on whether the New England Patriots can go undefeated for the whole season and beat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, here are two stocks that should move up nicely so that you can go to Disney World on the profits.
Ing Groep (NYSE: ING) is certainly best of breed. The bank is very well run, and has not had to write off too much for subprime. It is currently trading with a dividend yield of 5.2% and has a tiny PEG of 0.77. This is a stock that Tom Brady can take to the bank.
Host Hotels and Resorts (NYSE: HST), formerly Host Marriott, the largest hotel real estate investment trust (REIT) in the US, owns some 120 luxury and upscale hotels in North America. Most of its hotels operate under the Marriott and Ritz-Carlton brands and are managed by sister firm Marriott International. Other brands include Four Seasons and Hyatt. It is currently trading with a 4.9% dividend yield and very close to the 52-week low. As the economy starts exiting the slow growth mode, it should do well.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 2/1/08.
Posted Jan 15th 2008 10:10AM by Kevin Kersten (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, , Morgan Stanley (MS),
Due to the losses on mortgages, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is expected to take a big hit to earnings this quarter when it reports on Thursday. Analysts estimate the company may lose $4.57 per share, and the stock could face some more rough weather before it gets through all the financial subprime loan turbulence on its books.
Looking back at past earnings, the stock is not headed in a good direction right now. The stock beat estimates for 11 quarters in a row, but that record turned around last quarter when it reported a 45 cent loss and dropped 9% on the earnings release. With Merrill Lynch looking at a $4.57 earnings hit this quarter, things could get worse before they get better.
Continue reading Merrill Lynch's earnings to be short of stellar
Posted Nov 3rd 2007 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Competitive strategy, Getting started, Comfort Zone Investing, Stocks to Buy, Housing
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Financial stocks is a wide net to throw over many industries: credit cards, insurance, mutual funds, banks, savings and loans, stock brokers, mortgage bankers. They all do something a little different but are tied together by one element: money. They use yours to make a profit. There's one other common trait at the moment: sub-prime mortgages. They've hit everyone of these industries, creating havoc and opportunity for investors.
It may be a good time to start buying a few of these downtrodden stocks. The reason: the sub-prime mortgage mess will be over at some point. However, no one knows that point. Merrill Lynch took a write down of more than $8 billion when two weeks before management said it would be closer to $5 billion. Other brokerage firms had similar problems. Banks and insurance companies around the world are getting out of mortgage investments because of their sub-prime losses. There will definitely be more fall out.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Time to buy financial stocks?
Posted Oct 18th 2007 2:45PM by Michael Fowlkes (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Bad news, Industry, Consumer experience, Market matters, Bank of America (BAC), Economic data, Housing, Federal Reserve

Over the past several months Wall Street experts have been debating whether or not America is headed to a recession, and according to a new CNN poll, a large percentage of Americans think that the
country has already entered a recession.
Concerns over a possible recession have been lingering for most of the year, as housing prices have steadily fallen, while prices for gas and food continue to rise. But the sentiment really started to take hold this summer as the subprime mortgage meltdown started to spread. These concerns are only going to grow today after a weak
Bank of America Corp (NYSE:
BAC)
earnings release.
As the weak housing market continues to deteriorate CNN finds that nearly half of all Americans are now under the impression the country is already in a recession. According to its recent poll, 46 percent of U.S. residents believe the country is in a recession, with 51 percent thinking we have not.
The report also showed that black Americans are taking a much more pessimistic stance on the current economy. CNN shows that 69% of all black Americans feel the country is in recession, while only 42% of white Americans think this is the case.
Continue reading Has America fallen into the dreaded 'R' word?
Posted Aug 9th 2007 10:30AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), , Wells Fargo (WFC), Stocks to Buy
There's no question that big banks have suffered this year as the spreading gloom from the subprime market has made large-scale lending a shaky prospect. Investors have registered their pessimism, sending the collective value of the biggest institutions down 6-7% on the year. Yes, the real estate market is in the doldrums and appears to be headed for another 6-12 tough months. But there is hope for these beaten-down securities.
The question for investors now: Is this the time to start buying these stocks? I say yes, and here are my reasons.
Keep in mind that these downturns are understood and even modeled for by many investors.
Dampening all is the effect of skyrocketing default levels on home mortgages. Many homeowners now face severely declining net worth, as home values have fallen anywhere between 5% and 35%, depending on location. I have yet to meet anyone who has told me their home value is up these past two years -- we are all in the same boat.
Companies that are primarily in the mortgage business have been laying off employees, even closing their doors for good. These one-trick pony businesses rode the crest of massive success to the current massive failure. But the big banks are in a different position.
Continue reading The major bank stocks: Is it time to buy?
Posted Jul 31st 2007 11:35AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Industry
MGIC Investment Corp (NYSE:
MTG) and
Radian Group Inc (NYSE:
RDN), the two mortgage insurance companies that are set to merge, announced last night that one of the cash cow partnerships that was to be used to give a boat load of cash to shareholders is not much of a cash cow anymore.
C-Bass, a partnership owned by both MGIC and Radian, "
has been materially impaired," MGIC announced last night. Back in the Spring, when MGIC and Radian announced they were going to merge, management said the massive amount of cash in C-Bass, along with a second co-owned partnership called Sherman, was to be given back to shareholders. Total consideration was estimated between $1.75 to $2.0 billion. Well, I guess that is not going to happen.
MGIC said the $516 million in book value as of the end of June could be completely wiped out. I have not seen any news on the Sherman partnership as of yet. C-BASS is principally engaged in the business of investing in the credit risk of subprime single-family residential mortgages.
The MGIC and the Radian transaction is a classic example that investors should always be skeptical of management in any company, even when they are generally as well-respected as MGICs.
However, when companies merge in an industry where the fundamentals are rolling over, as is the case in the mortgage business, it is often best to stay away. Do not bottom fish in this sector yet, there is likely much more bad news to come.
Posted Jun 25th 2007 2:15PM by Michael Fowlkes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Consumer experience, Housing
According to The National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell again during May to the lowest level in the past four years. This news should really come as no surprise as the sub-prime mortgage problems continue to weigh down the ailing housing market.
As the number of existing home sales falls, so does the average price for homes in the market. Last month was the 10th straight month of falling home prices, and there really is no sign that this trend is likely to reverse any time soon. So, on the bright side, for all of you looking to buy a new house, the home of your dreams is getting more and more affordable each passing month.
The average price for an existing home across America is now only $223,700. This represents a 2.1% drop from last year.
A few years back it was definitely a sellers market, with prices shooting through the roof. Those days are gone. It has been a long time since I heard any of my friends bragging about how much money they just made flipping their most recent home purchase.
Continue reading Look at the bright side: Your dream home is getting more affordable!
Posted May 21st 2007 9:20AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newspapers, Magazines, Internet, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Teva Pharm Indus ADR (TEVA), salesforce.com inc (CRM),
MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
- The U.K. Times reported that Warner Music Group Corporation (NYSE: WMG) is expected to offer EMI Group (OTC: EMIPY) a "£100 million sweetener" to try and keep the company from accepting an offer from private equity.
- According to The Observer, Royal Bank of Scotland (OTC: RBSPY), along with its partners Fortis and Banco Santander Central Hispano (NYSE: STD), hope to "table" a £47 billion offer for ABN Amro Holdings (NYSE: ABN) this week.
- The Observer reported that a private equity consortium is considering a $15 billion offer for Virgin Media Inc (NASDAQ: VMED).
- Cadbury Schweppes ADS (NYSE: CSG) is planning to return £5 billion to shareholders through a special dividend or share buyback, according to The Observer.
- The Sunday Telegraph reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) will offer to buy out the pension schemes of some of the leading FTSE100 companies next week.
- Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) may be looking to acquire British social networking site Bebo, the Sunday Telegraph reported.
- The Bollywood film producer, Eros International, is expected to announce a partnership with Google Inc's (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube, the Sunday Telegraph reported.
- Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited's (NASDAQ: TEVA) Copaxone will face generic competition for the first time, but will not see an impact immediately, Ha'aretz reported.
WEBSITES:
- The Orange County Register blog looked at a transcript from IndyMac Bancorp Inc's (NYSE: IMB) first quarter conference call, where the CEO Michael Perry said: "When you see that delinquency number in the press of 13% subprime delinquencies, it's hugely understated. It is absolutely hugely understated. And the prime delinquencies are overstated. The subprime delinquencies are more like 18, 20, 22% delinquencies and that's where I think you're going to see the problems."
Posted Apr 3rd 2007 11:20AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Magazines, Commodities
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Larry Jeddeloh of TIS Group, publisher of the Market Intelligence Report, was put on
Barron's Magazine (subscription required) interviewee pedestal this past weekend. Jeddeloh foresees a market drop of 15% to 20% post April.
Jeddeloh cites subprime mortgage woes and global central bankers still biased toward raising rates that could translate into a much quicker drop in GDP growth than investors are expecting. Actually, for such a substantial drop to occur, credit conditions will have to be much tighter than the market is currently discounting.
Is this a possibility? Remember the yield curve has been inverted for some time, meaning banks have had a tough time making money from the brainless act of taking deposits in and investing them in medium-term treasuries. Further, income derived from providing mortgages will also be down. The business that has continued to grow is fee income--whose growth has been masking weakness in other areas.
The Fed, prior to lowering rates during the past ten years, has liked to see liquidity conditions get tight before fueling up the monetary pump again. Maybe this will happen again.
Areas that Jeddeloh liked are similar to areas we have been blogging about -- cotton and gold. See
our blog from last week on corn and cotton as to why cotton might be an attractive place to look for profits.
Regarding gold, the strategist has a $3,800 price target, expecting gold to mirror what stocks did from 1982 to 2000, increasing 1,400%. As we have blogged about in the past,
Newmont Mining (NYSE:
NEM) is a good place to look.