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Finanical crisis: BNP head thinks worst behind us

Baudouin Prot , CEO of one of Europe's largest and best run banks, BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), said that he believes that the worst of the subprime mess is behind us. What makes this statement important is that BNP is one of the few major banks not to take a serious hit from subprime. The bank estimates that their exposure to subprime is minimal this year and was only about 200 million Euro in '07.

In a Marketwatch report, Prot says: "There are no doubts the crisis isn't over. However, the worst should be over and I believe that in the second semester the crisis may normalize."

While I am skeptical of any bank CEO telling me that the worst is behind us, as they certainly have their own agenda of keeping their stock prices up, when the CEO of a bank that has had little exposure to the crisis tells me that he thinks the tide is turning, I would listen. After all he has an interest in watching some of his competitors fall further, as he could then swoop in and buy on the cheap. The fact that he isn't talking down the industry means that he truly thinks that we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

No one seems ready to call a bottom in the financial sector, but with this report, investors may want to start researching the financials that are in the best shape, as we may potentially be near a bottom.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.

Sirius could be off to the races with potential cash flow positive numbers expected in fourth quarter

Last night, Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) said it passed the 6 million subscriber mark, hitting a lowered subscriber target.

More importantly, Sirius said it will hit its free cash flow guidance number. Historically, upstart communications stocks begin to perform very well when they turn free cash flow positive.

Sirius said subscribers increased 82% versus year-end 2005, adding 2.7 million net subscribers in 2006 - a big number despite the subscriber forecast being lowered.

Mel Karmazin said in previous meetings with the investment community that he expected Sirius to turn cash flow break even by the fourth quarter of 2006, and expects to generate $1.0 billion in free cash flow by 2010. Mel is on target. Mel, seldom, if ever, has missed a cash flow number.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 12:15 PM

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