U.K. home repossession claims by mortgage lenders increased 16% from a year ago to their highest level since the early 1990s, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

The U.K.'s Ministry of Justice said possession claims, the first step in the foreclosure process, increased to 38,688 in Q1 2008, from 27,530 in Q1 2007, Bloomberg News reported.

Anglo-American housing slump

London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks Friday the large foreclosure rise indicates that the air is easing out of the housing balloon, and that the housing correction that began in the United States, is "clearly washing shore in the U.K."

AIG (NYE: AIG) was the most respected insurance firm in the world when it was run by Hank Greenberg. But he is gone, along with the respect.

AIG managed to lose $7.8 billion in the last quarter, an impressive amount even by the standards of current bank and brokerage deficits. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The giant insurer also announced that it would raise $12.5 billion in capital to replenish its balance sheet."

Of course, the reason for the losses was, among other things, investment in instruments based on mortgages.

One odd piece of news that came out of the awful quarter from the insurance firm was that it would raise its dividend. It is hard to imagine where that cash will come from.

The smoke signal sent up by AIG is that the crisis involving US financial firms is not over. AIG did not say that the future was bright and the sun was coming out from behind dark clouds. Pessimism was the emotion of the day.

Watch for more big losses from banks and brokerage in the second quarter. AIG is a canary in a coal mine.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The ever-incisive FT columnist Martin Wolf offers prudent and timely advice concerning the reforms needed to ease credit market doldrums and right the global financial state of things.

One key practice Wolf would like to see addressed is bank / mortgage lender selling of mortgages they originate.

Designers of the practice had good intentions: It was designed to free-up capital so banks / mortgage lenders could have more money available for future homebuyers. A noble intention.

Unfortunately, as tradition reminds us, the road to perdition (and record housing sector slumps) is paved with good intentions. The problem, Wolf notes, is that the originate-and-distribute model encouraged banks / mortgage lenders to originate (in many cases for handsome fees) high-risk, very-poor-credit-quality mortgages with reckless abandon, because originators knew that the loan would be sold, and its status as a performing asset would be entirely someone else's problem. Save the best (mortgages), get rid of the rest.

It's not surprising, Wolf notes, that the originate-and-distribute model became laden with sloppy, irresponsible and even fraudulent loans. Wolf's reform: originators must be required to retain a portion of the equity of securitized loans. Hence, if / when they go bad, the originator loses money too.

Economic Analysis: Wolf's proposed financial / bond market reform is on the mark. If every party, including the originator, has a stake in a mortgage's repayment status, that will lead to higher-quality loans, while at the same time retaining the secondary market's benefit of freeing-up capital for new mortgages.

Countrywide (NYSE:CFC) got called before Congress. All of the elected officials and their staff members wanted to know how the mortgage firm screwed up by lending people without the resources money to buy homes. Was there fraud involved? Did brokers inflate buyers' salaries? Did they take down any pertinent information at all?

As would be expected, Countrywide said it had not done anything illegal. All that happened was that its people made a few mistakes. All that has been fixed and everything is fine.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Countrywide "told a U.S. Senate Judiciary subcommittee Tuesday that the company is taking steps to address concerns that misconduct in bankruptcy proceedings by mortgage companies is exacerbating the nation's foreclosure crisis." In other words, the company gave out loans which people could not pay and then beat them up with fees which they could hardly afford when they got behind on payments.

The FBI and a number of other agencies looking into Countrywide's practices. They obviously are not willing to settle for the company's comments before Congress. These investigators think that the mortgage operation knew a great deal about what it was doing and was doing it on purpose to make more money.

Countrywide can testify all it wants. There is no poll of home buyers, federal investigators. or Congressmen that will show anything other than the belief that the company is not telling the truth. Not even close.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is urging both mortgage lenders and government officials to step-up efforts to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

Bernanke, in a speech in New York on Monday night, also underscored his preference to have lenders forgive a portions of mortgages for selected struggling homeowners, Bloomberg News reported. Bernanke qualified his remarks by stating that the proposal should be tightly targeted to avoid providing an incentive for default.

Bernanke's speech came about one week after the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), a major mortgage lender, announced it will modify at least $40 billion in troubled mortgage during the next two years to keep customers in their homes, Bloomberg News reported Monday. The action could help as many as 265,000 homeowners, the bank said.

The New York Times reports that Federal National Mortgage (NYSE: FNM) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage (NYSE: FRE) have a tiny sliver of capital to support a mountain of mortgages. To put it in perspective, their level of borrowing is almost twice that of the enormously over-leveraged investment banking and hedge fund industries. With the collapse of the housing market, Freddie and Fannie are in trouble. And when you get to the scale of these two, so is America.

As I posted last month, it could cost $1 trillion to bail out Fannie and Freddie. These hybrid organizations are a key cog in the mortgage industrial complex (MIC) that has gotten the world into its current capital crisis. Fannie and Freddie buy "conforming" mortgages from their originators and then package and sell the mortgages as securities. But these two have a mere $83 billion in capital to support $5 trillion worth of debt and other commitments.

This 60-to-1 ratio is almost twice the 32-to-1 ratio of the highly leverage investment banks and hedge funds. And like any company with hard-to-value assets, Fannie and Freddie have unrealized losses. In their case, those total $20 billion -- they've already taken $9 billion worth so far this year. By 2007 they had guaranteed or invested in $717 billion of subprime and Alt-A loans, up from almost none in 2000. And many of those are not worth that much.

AP reports that Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) lost $893 million in the first quarter. That $1.60 a share loss was not exactly what analysts had forecast -- they were looking for a profit of two cents a share.

Meanwhile the LA Times reports that Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo took in $10.8 million and cashed out $121.5 million in stock gains as his company got hammered by losses on sub-prime loans in 2007. Mozilo also enjoyed perks worth $176,513, including $44,454 in rides on the company's jet; $23,755 in automobile use; $8,581 in country club dues; and $31,238 in company-paid tax and investment advice. Mozilo faces an informal U.S. inquiry into his stock sales.

And Countrywide's financial condition is deteriorating fast. It set aside a $1.5 billion reserve to cover loan up 62% from $925 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Moreover charge-offs totaled $606 million during the first quarter. Fortunately, Countrywide has an exit strategy. In January, Countrywide agreed to sell itself to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) for about $4 billion in stock. The question is whether Bank of America will pull out of the deal now that it sees the rising costs it will incur if it moves forward. Since Countrywide trades 15% below that takeout price, the market has its doubts.

Investors don't seem happy with today's announcement -- the stock was down 5% in premarket trading.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

The FBI says that deceptive practices at hedge funds and some banks may have made the subprime disaster worse. According to Reuters, the head of the agency said the bureau's investigation of potential fraud in the U.S. home mortgage industry now encompasses 19 companies in "cases that may have a substantial impact on the marketplace."

While insider trading and accounting fraud may be part of any charges which emerge, one of the biggest single issues may be the sales practices of the firms which sold subprime paper to their clients. The subprime instruments were often presented as having high credit ratings and safe risk profiles. Of course, it didn't work out that way. Another problem may be whether mortgage banks were completely honest in what they told home-buyers about how their loans would work as their interest rates increased over time.

Some of the investigation is a witch hunt. Large banks which took subprime instruments onto their balance sheets had plenty of genius-level analysts who could have examined the products. At most firms, so one skipped that part. Caveat emptor and all that. Individuals who took on home mortgages sold by people who did not want them to read the small print is another matter.

Rumors are that Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) could be targets of the probe. Countrywide (NYSE:CFC) is already under investigation. One news report on the potential scandal said that FBI head man Robert Mueller told a meeting of lawyers "that their corporate clients should come forward and admit any wrongdoing before the FBI or Justice Department become involved.."

That'll be the day.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

For the second time in four months, the International Monetary Fund has cut its 2008 global growth forecast, citing the worst financial crisis in the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

IMF now expects the global economy to grow 3.7% in 2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4.1% growth, Bloomberg News reported, citing an IMF document it obtained at the meeting of Southeast Asian deputy finance ministers and central bankers in Vietnam. The IMF also said there's a 25% chance global growth will drop below 3% in 2008 and 2009.

In January 2008, the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.1%, the lowest since 2003, from 4.4% predicted in October 2007. At that time the IMF said last year's increase in credit costs resulting from defaults on mortgages aimed at borrowers with poor credit histories was hurting the rest of the economy.

Econobrowser suggests that housing prices could drop 50% from their peak. While it was initially skeptical about such a huge drop which was suggested by a commenter, its re-examination of this based on recent developments, and what the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal say led it to conclude that such a summit plummet was plausible.

Sunday, I posted on the possibility that it could take 10 years for housing prices to recover based on an interview with the Warren Group and comparing the current housing tumble to the one in the 1990s. Combining this with the Econobrowser's pessimistic scenario suggests that we could be in the longest and deepest housing price decline in American history.

I do not understand the details of the analysis presented here but if my reading of the post is correct, it concludes that the Case-Shiller index of housing prices, one which seems to have more credibility than the one produced by the government's OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) House Price Index (HPI), is that prices could fall 50%. Econobrower notes "that only a slightly more pessimistic than average forecast implies a 50% decline in house prices as measured by Case-Shiller, relative to peak."

So if you bought a house for $300,000 in 2006, it could be worth $150,000 when the housing market hits bottom and take until 2016 to recover to its original price. How about that for an ownership society?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Alphonso Jackson resigned today as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, becoming the latest Bush administration official to leave under a cloud. No word on a replacement.

Jackson, who most Americans couldn't name in a bar bet, is under investigation by the FBI. He allegedly helped a friend who was paid $392,000 by HUD in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and allegedly punished the Philadelphia Housing Authority (PHA) for nixing a deal with another friend, the record producer/developer Kenny Gamble, according to The Associated Press. The PHA filed a lawsuit.

"At a congressional hearing this month, Jackson repeatedly refused to answer questions about the Philadelphia redevelopment deal," the story said. "Last year, the inspector general at Jackson's department found what it called 'some problematic instances' involving HUD contracts and grants, including Jackson's opposition to money for a contractor whose executives donated exclusively to Democratic candidates."

Financial eras, like social periods, are often defined by moments or epiphanies when decision makers and/or citizens realized that a serious flaw/mistake/problem was occurring through time, and across space, and needed to be corrected.

The ever-incisive FT columnist and economist Martin Wolf describes one contemporary concern that's likely to be addressed: the failure to align the interests of managers with those of investors.

My BloggingStocks colleagues Peter Cohan and Zac Bissonnette have also written on the subject on several occasions in this space, and now the FT's Wolf has assembled additional data that may very well lead to public policy changes, both in Wolf's United Kingdom and in the United States.

The Fed has opened itself up to take some fairly weak securities from banks in exchange for funding to keep them liquid. According to Reuters: "The U.S. Federal Reserve is taking a risk by opening up its own balance sheet to the same poisonous securities that have strained banks to the limit."

The agency may feel it has little choice other than to swap good money for bad securities. The problem is that, if it does not, some large financial institutions could fail. The Fed can wait to see if the value of the securities increase over time as some subprime mortgages are paid off and locked up credit markets start to trade again. But, to think that the investments will ever be worth $1 for $1 that the Fed lends out is highly unlikely.

That means that the government has gone all the way to bailing out these companies and that tax-payers will foot the bill for tens of billions of dollars of "losses" at the Fed.

But, even if the tax-payer is asked whether he would like to pay a few more dollars to help big financial institutions stay in business or lose his job in a huge recession, he is likely to vote for paying the extra money.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The ever-incisive FT columnist Martin Wolf offers a stark and sober analysis of the United States' current financial and economic predicament, but it's an analysis well-worth reviewing, if one has the time.

A synopsis is provided here, but first, full warning: read the analysis when you're feeling well and in a good mood, not during other times.

Margin call. Forced sale (liquidation). Stock / asset price decline. Cascading sales. Margin call. Forced sale (liquidation). Stock / asset price decline. Cascading sales. Margin call.

Concerned that current financial market and economic conditions might produce the above - - the dreaded financial vicious cycle? (It's also known as the financial decelerator.)

So is the International Monetary Fund, which is why the organization took the highly unusual step of recommending that governments should be prepared to use public funds to support struggling global credit and financial markets.