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High gas prices mean Americans likely to prefer homes closer to work

If one scrolls back into American history, one can detect a clear pattern of cycles or eras: periods of considerable economic expansion, followed by periods of less economic expansion. Periods of extensive public policy activity, followed by periods of less public policy activity. Periods of extensive suburban sprawl, followed by periods of less development.

As more and more Americans entertain the possibility that $4 per gallon gasoline, may, in the long-term, represent a price floor rather than a ceiling, one can detect the rumbles of a shift in housing preferences, so says economist Glen Langan.

"The 3-bedroom house with a back yard is still a goal. That's part of the American dream. The house with a yard 30 or 40 miles from work, is not," Langan said.

Case in point: the Denver metropolitan area. Suburban and exurban home prices in formerly preferred suburbs, are dropping more than in areas closer to the city center, The New York Times reported.

Denver will hardly be the only city affected, Langan said. "Many cities that experienced a 'long-commute' boom or an exurbia boom during the low gas price area are vulnerable," Langan said. "It's the 30-mile commute re-think." Another example of a city likely to be hit hard is Atlanta.

Continue reading High gas prices mean Americans likely to prefer homes closer to work

How to make suburbia work again in America

In another strange pastime of mine, I happen to really enjoy reading books about urban planning, touched off by what I felt to be a groundbreaking book by Jane Jacobs, Death and Life of Great American Cities.

The book describes in dry, yet powerful detail, how Jacobs' felt about modernist planners who "destroy communities and innovative economies by creating isolated, unnatural urban spaces." Instead, Jacobs argued for a dense and mixed-use urban aesthetic that would preserve the uniqueness inherent in individual -- like certain neighborhoods in New York City.

Whether or not you agree with Jacobs, suburbia did provide many families with clean surroundings and bigger houses and amenities (not to mention a longer commute). Today's New York Times looks at ways to take the best of suburbia and try to reinvent the concept.

In an article called "Can we uninvent suburbia?" Andrew Revkin looks at what a variety of different voices are saying about the matter, including:

  • The End of Suburbia, an award-winning 2006 documentary, provides a fascinating overview of how the sprawled lifestyle evolved, the hidden -- and not so hidden -- costs, and what lies ahead.
  • An article in the Sunday version of the Times that calculates the environmental costs of suburbia.
  • A great link to a website that follows "dead malls" as part of a process Revkin calls "retrofitting."

As elections are getting closer and closer, it will be interesting to see what vision of America the American voters stand behind.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 02:38 PM

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