Except for the safe haven of U.S. treasuries and the U.S. dollar, most other commodities are getting slaughtered in the wake of the Japanese crisis.

Here are some prices of nearby contracts compared to five days ago:

• WTI crude is trading at $97.68 per barrel, down from $105.
• Wheat is at $6.89 per bushel, down for $7.89.

There's a catch-22 in world food supply and demand. The demand for food from developing nations is putting pressure on supplies across the globe. But governments are getting increasingly nervous and worried about unrest. To try and preempt civil disturbances, governments have stepped in and are buying food staples. This government buying is driving prices still higher.

Algeria and Saudi Arabia have announced extraordinary purchases of wheat, driving prices to a two and a half year high. Last week Algeria bought 600,000 tons of wheat, much more than usual. Saudi Arabia announced plans to double the size of its wheat stockpile.

This year get ready to open your wallet wider and expect higher credit card bills for the basics like food, clothing and energy. You are probably wondering what is going on. While you weren't paying much attention, the price raw commodities surged in 2010. Corn, sugar, wheat, cotton, coffee and soybeans prices soared last year, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

A confluence of factors pushed prices up. We had and still have demand explosion from China and India. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's monthly food index which monitors a basket of commodities including meat, dairy and sugar rose for the sixth straight month to a record.

Fierce weather conditions are wreaking havoc on agricultural crops around the world. The latest disaster is the cyclone hitting Australia's sugar crops. Australia is the world's third largest sugar exporter.

Raw sugar futures jumped 4% to settle at 35.31 cents per pound and traded as high as 36.11 cents as reported in the Wall Street Journal. The cyclone Yasi is one of the strongest storms to slam Australia. Losses from the storm are estimated at $505.7 million.

The storm is adding to an exceptionally poor harvest in Australia. This year's crop yielded only 3.6 million tons, the lowest in 20 years. Output from Brazil, the world's number one producer was also disappointing.

This year we've seen sharp price increases in commodities, especially in the weather sensitive agricultural sector. Coffee and sugar are in the spotlight this week.

Processors who buy raw commodities and process them into consumer products are caught is in a price squeeze. On the one hand they must pay more for the raw product and on the other they are up against consumers who are cost conscious.

If you had to pick a commodity market dominated by rumors, it would have to be sugar. On Nov. 3, our headline read: "Sugar Surges to a 30-Year High on Tight Supplies." Then, just over a week later, our headline read: "Sugar Plunges from a 30- Year High." And now today's headline describes another surge. What is going on?

First, the facts:

• Sugar stocks are at their lowest level in two decades, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.
• The International Sugar Organization cut its prediction to a 60% smaller surplus of 1.29 million tons. Some analysts have forecast an even tighter surplus.

Last week, investors' were concerned about sugar shortages in the Brazilian crop and that India may have to curtail sugar exports. Sugar prices hit a 30-year high as a result. But when India announced it could have a sugar surplus of 3.5 million metric tons, sugar futures recorded the biggest single day drop since 1980, The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported.

India's announcement of a surplus was more than triple market expectations. That news added to the sell-off as sugar futures plunged from 33.39 cents per pound to 29.66 cents per pound (each 1 penny equal $1120). Meanwhile, in Brazil, the backlog of shipments has eased. The lineup of vessels waiting to be loaded was down to 56 from 124 in August. Now the market players must reassess supply and demand and probable price targets.

Reuters quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as saying: "We're not in the business of trying to create inflation. Our purpose is to provide additional stimulus to help the economy recover and to avoid potentially additional disinflation, which I think we'll all agree could also be worrisome."

Bernanke claims that inflation is below the Fed's 2% target. That's hogwash! Sure if you use the "core" CPI, which leaves out food and energy, that may be the case. Not to worry.

First we had record cotton prices due to crop shortages. Now we have the same situation in the the sugar market.

The big producers of sugar are Brazil and India. Brazil dominates the market with half of the world's exports. The country has experienced a smaller-than-normal harvest. Inventories are at their lowest levels in decades. Unica, the country's cane industry association, said that production was down 30% in the first half of October from 2009, as reported by the Financial Times.

Get ready to pay more for your next chocolate bar. The 2009-2010 cocoa supply shortfall is estimated at 124,000 metric tons, according to Fortis Bank Nederland NV and VM Group. The supply situation is intensified by an increase in grindings, up 3.3% from last year.

The London spot market is setting 21-year records. Cocoa for May delivery climbed 0.7% to 2,344 pounds ($3,581 a ton).

Forward futures contracts on the ICE exchange show a bullish trend. July cocoa reached $3,242, the highest level since January 29.

Last year we heard that the lack of sugar supply was chasing prices higher. Adverse weather caused severe damage to sugar crops in Brazil and India. There were all kinds of stories about dry weather, wet weather, anything that would make buyers rush in before prices skyrocketed. The stories drove sugar prices to a 29-year high.

This year the situation has changed. Sugar supply is increasing. Prices have dropped 41% since reaching a high on Feb. 1. India, the world's second largest producer, estimates that this year's crop will be about 17 million metric tons.

Sugar is one of the most basic commodities. Countries throughout the world are wanting sugar. Supplies of sugar are reaching a 20-year low this year. The shortage may become especially acute in the third quarter.

Here some supply/demand statistics:

• India the biggest importer may need an extra 2.5 to 3 million tons to meet a 7 million ton deficit.
• China, the biggest consumer after India may have a deficit of 3.3 million tons.

We are back riding the bull today in commodities. The dollar is down with the March futures contract trading at 77.89, down 0.33.

Crude oil is trading at a high of $81.16 per barrel in the February West Texas contract, up $1.64. Brent crude is up $1.70 to $77.63 per barrel.

The metals are higher with LME (London Metals Exchange) copper up 1.3% to $7,525 per ton, triggered by a strike at a copper mine in northern Chile.

Last year's bull run in commodities was led mainly by oil, grains and gold. This year we've had spectacular bull runs in the "soft" commodities, which include mainly, coffee, tea, cocoa, sugar and orange juice.

Tea is at an all-time high; cocoa is at a 30-year high; and sugar is at a 28.5-year high. Orange juice reached its highest price in 15 months. Tea prices for the best quality broken pekoe, or BP1, surged to a record $5.02 a kilogram, up 70% since January.

A few weeks ago, we heard reports that sugar prices would rise because of weather conditions and supply/demand factors. Sugar prices recently hit a 28-year high, trading at 23 cents per pound.

New data suggests that sugar prices may drop as much as 24%, according to Craig Ruffolo of McKeany Falvel company. He says that markets are already anticipating lower prices well before the next Brazilian harvest.