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Bull markets in 'soft' commodities to hike coffee, orange juice prices

Last year's bull run in commodities was led mainly by oil, grains and gold. This year we've had spectacular bull runs in the "soft" commodities, which include mainly, coffee, tea, cocoa, sugar and orange juice.

Tea is at an all-time high; cocoa is at a 30-year high; and sugar is at a 28.5-year high. Orange juice reached its highest price in 15 months. Tea prices for the best quality broken pekoe, or BP1, surged to a record $5.02 a kilogram, up 70% since January.

Continue reading Bull markets in 'soft' commodities to hike coffee, orange juice prices

Are sugar prices headed for a fall?

A few weeks ago, we heard reports that sugar prices would rise because of weather conditions and supply/demand factors. Sugar prices recently hit a 28-year high, trading at 23 cents per pound.

New data suggests that sugar prices may drop as much as 24%, according to Craig Ruffolo of McKeany Falvel company. He says that markets are already anticipating lower prices well before the next Brazilian harvest.

Continue reading Are sugar prices headed for a fall?

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be devalued, lose reserve currency status

Despite the prospect of a more than doubling of the U.S. annual budget deficit for each of the next two years, the dollar has held up reasonably well so far against the world's other major currencies, actually rising against the euro and British pound, while falling against Japan's yen.

But a commodities guru says that won't last.

Commodities expert Jim Rogers says U.S. policy makers will devalue the dollar, undercutting the greenback's reserve currency status, according to Bloomberg News.

"They think that if you drive down the value of your money, it makes you more competitive, now that has never worked in history in the long term," Rogers said. He added that he is buying Japan's yen and started buying commodities, such as sugar, in October, calling low commodity prices "astonishing." (For full currency data, click here.)

Still, despite Rogers' superior performance predicting commodity cycles -- in 2006 he correctly predicted that oil would hit $100 and gold $1,000 -- not every economist is in agreement with his dollar devaluation thesis. Economist David H. Wang said that while the dollar will likely decline in value some, due to increased U.S. government borrowing, that does not guarantee a decrease in U.S. competitiveness.

Continue reading Jim Rogers: Dollar will be devalued, lose reserve currency status

Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) provides some sweet relief

While big ticket luxury may be a bit of a stretch for many investors right now, small luxuries are still within reach. Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (NASDAQ: RMCF) stands ready to provide sweet relief from bitter financial news. RMCF manufactures an extensive line of premium chocolates, fudge and other confectionary marvels. It also franchises stores to spread temptation far and wide. The company reported 1Q 2009 record sales of $26.6 million, up 2.4%. Net earnings declined by slightly more. The end results is flat diluted EPS of $0.16.

RMCF continues to expand its franchise model. The company opened 8 new franchise locations in 1Q alone, and plans to open a total of 35-40 new franchise locations in FY2009. Franchise, royalty and marketing fees helped counteract the negative effects of sharp cost increases for chocolate and sugar. The company has no current plans to increase franchise fees given the tough times in the retail sector. Nor will the company provide FY2009 guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainties. The company did declare its 20th straight quarterly dividend of $0.10. The stock trades right around $9, down 50% from its 52-week high of $18.04. RMCF may be a viable stock for bargain investors. No matter the state of the economy, chocolate is NOT a discretionary purchase for some people. Just make certain that due diligence includes extensive sampling of the entire product line. Expand your portfolio and your waistline at the same time.

Can Jones and Heinz cash in on potatoes and sugar, the stable commodities?

Is there a way to cash in on the commodities bubble without actually playing the commodities market? (Which, Andrew Tobias handily dismissed in The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need: "It is a fact that 90% or more of the people who play the commodities game get burned. I submit that you have now read all you need ever read about commodities.")

Yes, there are a handful of ETFs that specialize in commodities. The Wall Street Journal reports that investors are getting interested in farming stocks and companies like Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON) and tractor maker Deere and Co. (NYSE:DE). Smaller companies like China's AgFeed (NASDAQ:FEED), which produces animal food and pork, is trading at about $16, down from $20 a month ago, but still nearly triple its price a year ago.

Two food commodities that the boom has not impacted too much are potatoes (which are not really part of the international commodities market) and sugar, which is heavily subsidized and mostly doesn't trade on the open market. Sugar prices recently sunk to a seven-month low because of an oversupply, Reuters says.

Continue reading Can Jones and Heinz cash in on potatoes and sugar, the stable commodities?

Monsanto's genmod sugar beet plans crystallize

http://flickr.com/photos/uberculture/1527460229/According to a story in today's New York Times, American sugar beet growers have committed to planting a genetically modified strain that will allow them to control weeds via use of Scott Miracle-Gro's (NYSE:SMG) Round-up product. The farmers expect that the Monsanto-developed beet will lower their production costs by eliminating hand-weeding and increasing yield.

Expect this to trigger another round of public controversy about genetically modified crops, held in great suspicion by world markets. Although the product was approved by the U.S. government in 2005, reluctance among manufacturers to contend with public distrust of modified foods led growers to hold back on adoption.

Look for this issue to raise other sugar-related discussions, including U.S. and E.U. price supports and the lack of free access to these markets by third world sugar suppliers, and the environmental cost of cane sugar growing practices. If Monsanto (NYSE:MON) can overcome these objections, it will represent another major step in cultivating acceptance for other genetically modified crops, which would bode well for the company's future.

Dean Foods: Dairy dudes demanding dollars due

Dairy product marketers such as Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) are continuing to warn consumers, economists and investors of the pressures that rising corn prices will soon be placing upon our economy. The pursuit of an unfettered increase in corn based ethanol production is raising inflationary pressures on consumer pocketbooks by increasing the feed costs for dairy, beef , pork and poultry farmers. When coupling the feed cost increases with the higher prices for fuel and fertilizer, we have a recipe for inflationary spikes in consumer food prices which will most probably reach well into the double digits over the next three years.

National Milk Producers Federation spokesman Chris Galen said ethanol usage has led to higher costs for corn and wheat products, which in turn affects the cost of other products, as reported by UPI. Twice within the last six months Dean Foods has faced analyst downgrades as a result of the pressures that rising fuel and feed costs are putting on dairy producers large and small. One downgrade occurred in March and another occurred just this month. Those companies such as Dean Foods, which have their primary focus in dairy products, will be harder hit than companies which have broader focus similar to Kraft.

The opinion is expressed that investors who wish to play the ethanol game should be focusing their intentions on cellulosic ethanol interests rather than ethanol operations based on corn and sugars. While the profitability of cellulosic ethanol does not reach the same levels as ethanol from corn, in the long run the vastly lowered degree of raw material price volatility and the greatly reduced level of controversy will have cellulosic ethanol investors sleeping much more peacefully than their corn-fed brothers.

Splenda vs. Equal: Battle of the Brands

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

I never paid that much attention to the pink and yellow and blue packets on the table when my wife and I go out for breakfast a couple of times a week. I'm not a consumer of artificial sweeteners, so when I learned that we wanted to add one more match-up to our Battle of the Brands feature, this one focusing on Splenda and Equal, and that it was going to be up to me pull it together, I thought: Oh boy, what am I going to have to say about that?

But I've never been one to pass up an opportunity to learn something new. I began with what I did know, which wasn't much: the makers of Splenda and Equal were in the news recently -- something about misleading advertising and sour grapes. Besides, weren't these yellow and blue packets really second banana to the ubiquitous Sweet'N Low pink packets? Shows how much I know: turns out Sweet'N Low's virtual monopoly on the artificial sweetener market ended back in the 1980s, when Equal took the lead. Since Splenda was introduced in 1999, however, it has exploded, with sales of more than $200 million in 2006, or about 60% of the U.S. artificial sweetener market. Equal's sales have dropped about $30 million in that time, while sales of sugar have dropped $85 million. No wonder sugar producers and the makers of Equal have gone after the makers of Splenda in court.

For someone who doesn't know his blue packet from his yellow packet, what really is the difference between them?

Continue reading Splenda vs. Equal: Battle of the Brands

Sugar or Corn? Where to invest your money

It's been quite a run for Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) and Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) these past few years; they have benefited from all the buzz around ethanol, and the corresponding rise in corn prices. But where corn syrup was once a cheap alternative to sugar, it may not be anymore. Just as companies like Coca Cola and PepsiCo switched from cane sugar to high fructose corn syrup years ago because of rising sugar prices, they may now be switching back to sugar. This would probably be a victory for health advocates, who have long criticized high fructose corn syrup, and many point to it as one of the many factors involved in the obesity epidemic, particularly in children who consume soft drinks.

If you're interested in investing in sugar stocks, whose companies will prosper if there is a move away from corn syrup, take a look at this list from John Markman at MSN Money.

Pepsi funds HFCS study, says it, sugar are equal: but still might switch to sugar?

When I was writing about Jones Soda Co. (NASDAQ:JSDA) and their announced switch to sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup as sweetener, I didn't read all the way to the end of the Wall Street Journal [subscription required] story. I should have, though, as it's really the big news.

PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP) funded a study on high fructose corn syrup, which indicates that sugar and high fructose corn syrup have nearly the same effect on the body, and found no difference in the way the two substances contribute to weight gain. (The study is being written up for submission to a journal by researchers at UC Davis.) Pepsi is promoting this study heavily and said in response to Jones' move, "To say cane sugar is healthier than HFCS just isn't true. Marketing a myth for a competitive advantage is irresponsible and short-sighted."

But. But! Pepsi is working on some versions of its most popular sodas, including Sierra Mist and Pepsi itself, that contain sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup -- along with the removal of some preservatives and artificial colors. This news, reported by Beverage Digest magazine, seems at cross purposes with Pepsi's spokesman's claim.

If Pepsi is so sure high fructose corn syrup is safe -- and so interested in making sure consumers believe it -- why would it even dream of converting? Something tells me we haven't heard the end of Pepsi's evaluation of HFCS.

Of sugar, Jones Soda, health, and a really happy writer

jones valentines day sodaI may have mentioned a time or two that I avoid products with high fructose corn syrup. In fact, I avoid nearly all sodas because of that (in my opionion) toxic, terrible-tasting and generally unhealthy ingredient. While some scientists hem and haw, I subscribe to the theory that high fructose corn syrup is one of the major causes of obesity and the increase in diabetes in our country.

So. I don't drink it, even though I'd love to be a regular quaffer of Jones Soda Co. (NASDAQ:JSDA)'s quirky flavors. I reviewed the company's "Love Potion #6" Valentine's Day beverage back in February and thought the taste was lovely, but the presence of high fructose corn syrup ruined the experience for me.

Today Jones announced they'll be switching to cane syrup in favor of the processed HFCS. And I'd just like to say that I'm really, really happy. CEO Peter van Stolk says this "truly differentiates Jones and provides the consumer with a healthier alternative" -- I couldn't agree more. Finally I have a widely available (Jones Soda is sold in Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) stores, among others), interestingly-flavored soda that doesn't cause me major health concerns. I'll happily let my children drink Jones (in moderation, naturally) even though sweetened sodas are strictly forbidden in my household.

Now, if I can only pick a favorite flavor...

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:05 AM

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