
On Thursday, stocks fell 4.3% shortly after the opening, then rallied back to break-even on Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) earnings only to be crushed before the close on lousy earnings by Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
It's this kind of extreme volatility that sends money managers to Clancy's Bar, since it gives few hints as to the market's true direction.
Contrary signals are everywhere.
The bulls point to a tenacious support at S&P 500 (SPX) 800 to 820; an oversold stochastic, which almost gave a buy signal on Wednesday; grossly oversold internal indicators yesterday; and high fear numbers by the Association of American Investors (AAII) and others.
But the bears say that a breakdown is almost upon us and point to the higher CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a foreboding series of charts, and a world banking crisis that seems to have no end.
So, what's an investor to do?
One of the first things that I did was to redraw the support line at S&P 820 to reflect the lows at 804 on Tuesday and Wednesday. This results in a broader major support zone at SPX 800 to 820. A break of that zone would probably result in an immediate test of the closing low of 752.
At 752, we could hold again by forming a double-bottom and a volatile sideways market for the rest of this year.
But if S&P 750 is crushed on high volume, look out below, since there is little support before 620-650.
Sam Collins is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.
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