Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Nine catastrophe bonds have matured so far in the first quarter of 2010, removing $1.8 billion in risk-transfer capacity, according to data from Reuters. The insurance industry has compensated with $508 million in new cat bond risk capital, with the busy fourth quarter helping to absorb what is maturing now. Only one cat bond has closed so far this year, The Hartford's (HIG) $180 million Foundation Re III. But, the first quarter is usually a quiet one for the cat bond market.

It partly replaces the $105 million in protection that Foundation Re D afforded. Swiss Re (SWCEY) and SCOR (SCRYY) are also among the insurance companies with bonds maturing that have at least partial coverage from new cat bond issuances. Another four bonds have matured, however, with no new related issuance, affecting Munich Re (MURGY), AXA (AXA) and others.

The end of a year means a rush of data from the insurance and reinsurance industries, as treaties are renewed for the coming year. Catastrophe bonds are a part of this annual orgy of data production, as a flurry of activity occurs in December, with the industry's commitment to this form of alternative property-catastrophe risk-transfer setting the tone for the year to come. The cat bond market isn't big enough to push reinsurance rates, but you can generally get a sense of what the coming year will look like for cat bonds based on pricing for traditional reinsurance.

The catastrophe bond market is still running strong. This alternative to reinsurance, in which insurers can package up their risk and sell it to investors, may be a small part of the market, but carriers are clearly committing to it.

Swiss Re (SWCEY) and Scor (SCRYY) both have launched cat bonds, for $150 million and $75 million, respectively. This brings the fourth quarter issuance total to $840 million and the 2009 year-to-date tally to just over $2.6 billion, based on information from Artemis.bm and Guy Carpenter's GC Capital Ideas.

Mother Nature and mankind took it easy on the insurance industry in 2009. The total cost of both natural and man-made catastrophes fell profoundly in 2009, from $267 billion to $52 billion.

Insured losses fell, as well, according to Swiss Re (SWCEY). Insured natural catastrophe losses dropped to $21 billion, with the man-made variety hitting a mere $3 billion. Combined, insured losses pushed up to $50 billion in 2008, thanks in large part to the effects of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

• Oppenheimer upgraded Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT) to Perform from Underperform after the FDA's Arthritis Advisory Committee voted 14-1 in favor of approving Krystexxa for gout.
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) to Buy from Underperform and raised its target to $27 from $18 based on expectations that margin expansion will be higher than Street expectations.
• UBS said Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has limited downside risk given the improved outlook for the graphics processor market and professional solutions business. Shares were upgraded to Neutral from Sell and its target was raised to $11.50 from $8.
• BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie.
• Neutral Tandem (NASDAQ: TNDM) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Central Garden & Pet (NASDAQ: CENT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

• RW Baird upgraded LHC Group (NASDAQ: LHCG) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for raised 2009 guidance. The firm has a $36 target on the stock.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Swiss Reinsurance (OTC: SWCEY) to Buy from Hold following the CEO change as the firm views it as a positive move.
  
• Wachovia upgraded DuPont Fabros (NYSE: DFT) to Outperform from Market Perform because it thinks the company has taken major measures to mitigate its liquidity risk by obtaining additional debt. The firm also notes that the company signed several new leases.
• Goldman added Air Products (NYSE: APD) and Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• MSC Industrial (NYSE: MSM) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair.
  
• Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.

• Jefferies upgraded NeuStar (NYSE:NSR) to Hold from Underperform on valuation following the recent weakness and raised their target price to $15 from $12.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the recent pullback has created an attractive entry point into the name. The firm has a $27 target on the stock.
  
• UBS upgraded Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Wyeth (NYSE:WYE) to Buy from Neutral based on valuations. Pfizer's price target remains $18 and Wyeth's was raised to $50 from $38.
• Methanex (NASDAQ:MEOH) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
  
• BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) was raised to Buy from Hold at RBS.
  
• Anadys Pharma (NASDAQ:ANDS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

• Baird upgraded Carlisle (NYSE:CSL) to Outperform from Neutral and lowered their target to $25 from $33 following the company's Q4 results citing attractive valuation and solid execution.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Talbots (NYSE:TLB) to Hold from Sell on valuation as they believe the company's cash flow is improving and does not expect the company to face bankruptcy in next three years.
  
• Jefferies upgraded shares of Spectra Energy (NYSE:SE) to Hold from Underperform on valuation following the company's Q4 results and raised their target price to $15 from $11.75.
• Costco (NASDAQ:COST) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) and LG Display (NYSE:LPL) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Alpha Natural (NYSE:ANR) was raised to Buy from Hold at Natixis.

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) to Buy from Sell and added shares to its Conviction Buy List citing valuation. The firm also upgraded the Semiconductor Capital Equipment Sector to Attractive.
  
• Morgan Keegan believes Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) will emerge from the slowdown as a stronger company with greater market share and expansion into adjacent markets. Shares were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform.
• Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
  
• Daimler (NYSE: DAI) was upgraded at UBS to Neutral from Sell.
• Friedman Billings upgraded Mariner Energy (NYSE: ME) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation and the company's upcoming catalysts in the deepwater GOM.
• Swiss Reinsurance (OTC: SWCEY) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

• Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
• Deutsche Bank cut Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) and Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) to Hold from Buy and Suncor (NYSE: SU) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Sell from Hold after cutting their oil price forecast for 2009 to $60/bbl and 2010 to $58/bbl.
  
• Merrill downgraded Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) to Neutral from Buy on expectations the company's coatings end markets will worsen and chemicals division will see pressure next year.
• Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) was lowered at Citigroup to Hold from Buy.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BP Plc, Swiss Reinsurance and A. Schulman were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of BP Plc (NYSE: BP) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they believe the company is at an inflection and net income should grow 22% in 2009.
  
• UBS upgraded Swiss Reinsurance (OTC: SWCEY) to Neutral from Sell on the company's balance sheet, which they believe is solid, but still sees material risk to consensus estimates.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded shares of A. Schulman (NASDAQ: SHLM) to Buy from Hold as they believe the new CEO has had a significant positive impact and that downside is limited from current levels.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
  
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  
• BMO Capital upgraded Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• Goldman upgraded Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to Neutral from Sell.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.

• The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
• According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.