Southwestern Energy's (NYSE: SWN) stock has meandered since the June 5, 2009 Buy recommendation at a price of $42.38, but rare is the day you should sell an oil and natural gas play, hence I'm Reiterating the Buy rating.
And the reason is obvious enough: natural gas and oil (which, by the way, was down, but only briefly, and never out) - will represent preferred U.S. energy sources for at least the next decade.
It goes without saying that natural gas/oil plays are favored in this neck of the woods.
And with good reason: natural gas and oil, which, by the way, was down (but only briefly), and never out -- will represent preferred U.S. energy sources for at least the next decade. And with the aforementioned in mind Southwestern Energy Co. (NYSE: SWN) is worth a review.
Barclays upgraded Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm believes Spectra's valuation is attractive and that the dividend is secure.
Soleil upgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback and maintains a $45 target on the stock.
Friedman Billings upgraded O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) to Outperform from Underperform on valuation and the company's better than expected sales and earnings acceleration. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Sell List.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Hold from Underperform on valuation. The stock has gone down 40% since they initiated coverage on September 19. The firm maintains a $29 target.
Barclays upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing the $425M private equity investment, which reduces liquidity risk, and its reduced cost structure.
tw telecom (NASDAQ: TWTC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
AmeriCredit (NYSE: ACF) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings.
Analyst downgrades:
Jefferies downgraded Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE: MIC) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's sensitivity to the economic slowdown and funding risk. The firm lowered their target to $9 from $40 after the company announced a dividend reduction.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was cut to Sell from Neutral at UBS due to the company's exposure to potential generic competition and a lack of new products.
Friedman Billings downgraded Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered their target to $42 from $50 to reflect the risk of further production cuts.
Credit Suisse lowered Acme Packet (NASDAQ: APKT) to Neutral from Outperform.
Delta Petroleum (NASDAQ: DPTR) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank to Sell from Hold.
Siemens (NYSE: SI) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at UBS.
Analyst initiations:
Goldman initiated Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) with a Buy rating and $27 target as they believe it is making progress in becoming a mid-sized specialty biopharmaceutical company. The firm expects the company to be active in M&A and to spin-off or divest its slow-growth or fast-growing assets, such as virology and oncology.
Goldman believes Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) needs a "radical transformation" and restructuring that includes a break up, spin and merger in order to outperform over the next several years. Shares were assumed with a Sell rating and $19 target.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $65 target at Banc of America. The firm prefers to be on the sidelines given uncertainties surrounding 2009 revenue growth and the potential for negative rhetoric out of Washington on pharma costs.
Acorda (NASDAQ: ACOR) was started at RBC Capital with an Outperform rating and $30 target.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $100 from $95 on increased likelihood of an acquisition after Roche (OTC: RHHBY) reaffirmed commitment to its $100/share offer.
Baird expects Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) to gain market share in 2009 in mobile phones, IPTVs, and digital TVs. Shares were upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) to Outperform from Market Perform as they see limited earnings risk and an attractive risk/reward.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was raised to Buy from Add at Calyon.
Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies.
The energy debate rages on as oil and gas futures bounce around with 30% corrections. Which side of the energy debate are you on? Bears say that oil and gas prices are coming back down to earth. Speculators and hedge funds bid them up, global demand is slowing and alternative forms of energy will soon replace the fossil fuels we've come to depend upon. Bulls argue that oil and gas supplies are dwindling at the same time that the emerging market economies (China, India, Brazil and 20 others) need more. As their middle class population builds they too will want cars, air conditioning and electricity and demand will increase. Most oil reserves are in countries with unstable governments and when geopolitical events get ugly, prices tend to skyrocket.
I'm a long term energy bull -- 10% of my money has been in energy stocks for the last several years and today I maintain that allocation for two reasons. First, I believe in five years, oil and gas prices will be higher than they are today. Second, owning energy is a great hedge against other asset classes like stocks, the US dollar, and inflation.
No one knows which way energy prices will go next week or month so I continually rebalance my portfolio. As my energy stocks rise, I trim them and when they fall, I add to them. If my portfolio goes to 12% energy, I sell them back down to 10% and vice versa.
Now comes the easiest part – which stocks do I pick? Easy you say? Yes – because I don't worry about stock picking due to a miraculous new invention I'll discuss below. I own three energy stocks: the U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index (NYSE:IEO), the U.S. Oil Equipment & Services Index(NYSE:IEZ), and S&P Global Energy (NYSE:IXC). Through these three stocks, I own about 200 energy stocks in precise allocation percentages to parts of the energy sector, weighted according to my own preferences – 60% is in IEO, 30% is in IEZ and 10% is in IXC. Why pick stocks when I can own them all? Here's what I mean.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Ensco International (NYSE: ESV) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they find the company's long-term EPS growth and potential upside from the GOM/Mexico jack-up market compelling.
Friedman Billings upgraded Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) to Outperform from Market Perform following the better-than-expected Q2 report. The firm raised Juniper's target to $29 from $27.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent weakness. Southwestern's target was raised to $43 from $40.
Merrill also upgraded Delta (NYSE: DAL) to Buy from Neutral.
Analyst downgrades:
Baird downgraded Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) to Neutral from Outperform following the company's weak Q2 report and guidance.
Merriman cut Nautilus Group (NYSE: NLS) to Sell from Neutral to reflect the company's dependence on the consumer home fitness market at a time when consumer spending trends are weakening. The firm believes shares are overvalued and could potentially decline to the $4.00-$4.50 level.
E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight.
HSBC lowered Daimler AG (NYSE: DAI) to Neutral from Overweight.
The S&P 500 is down 12% this year. But some stocks are doing spectacularly well.
My newsletter, which has been picking three stocks a month for the last five and a half years, has found several of them. This year, it's up 29% so far. That increase is the rise in the average stock mentioned in the newsletter since its initial mention through the end of June. And it uses a 2% stop loss rule which automatically sells any stock that has declined by 2% and charges that decline against the returns.
With oil prices on the rise, these three are likely to benefit. But at some point, their valuations will exceed their earnings growth. So keep a close eye on them.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says forget calling a financial bottom -- everything you need is right in front of you.
Do you think this week will finally end the oil inventory nonsense? Do you think this week could be the breakout where oil doesn't trade on the slight build or the "heavier than expected" chatter?
I sure hope so.
Yesterday was a horrible market, but midday, when the market was really beginning to roll over, the whole complex turned. This was quite an achievement given the overwhelming collapse of the futures and the propensity of the bears to push things down.
Today with the futures breaching $140 -- remember, I think they're on the way to $150 -- we can see the error of relying on these numbers, which I have said for years now are meaningless. Witness how many times the inventories have been more full than expected and yet oil has doubled.
I want to go back to the cheaper-than-oil stocks, though. Natural gas. Oil has to go down $65 to get to where natural gas is right now. Meaning that historically oil trades at six times the price of natural gas. So natural gas -- forget the season, which is supposed to be bad for nat gas -- needs to come higher.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks rise because they're doubly blessed. Integrateds fall because they aren't.
So many people have been puzzled why the major integrateds have not moved with the last $30 rally in oil's spot price. The answer?
They can't take advantage of it.
They either didn't believe, and therefore didn't drill, or they have been so in the crosshairs of sovereign lunacy that they haven't been able to. They didn't have the rigs or they judged that the rigs were so expensive that, like 1980, they would look like dopes when oil came back to $40-$50, where many thought it would. (Go back and check even last year's research for price targets, most of which were from the oil companies' themselves.)
Or maybe it didn't matter anyway. So many of the contracts these companies have signed with governments around the world are either being abrogated or just outright confiscated that you have to ask yourself "Who can invest under those scenarios?" Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) in Venezuela. Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (Cramer's Take) and now BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer's Take) in Russia. You can't continually invest billions and then write it off because the contracts you wrote don't mean anything.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: J Crew, Ryanair and Sigma Designs were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded shares of J Crew (NYSE:JCG) to Sell from Hold following the company's lowered guidance as they expect slowing sales to push shares lower. The firm cut their target to $34 from $42. Wachovia downgraded J Crew to Market Perform from Outperform based on lower growth rate forecast, sourcing costs, and competitive pressures.
Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) was cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS to reflect the rise in fuel costs and lower face prices.
RBC Capital downgraded Sigma Designs (NASDAQ:SIGM) to Sector Perform from Outperform following the Q1 report and cited pricing pressure.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Piper downgraded Costco (NASDAQ:COST) to Neutral from Buy.
Ashland (NYSE:ASH) was cut at JP Morgan to Underweight from Neutral.
Friedman Billings cut Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN) to Market Perform from Outperform and removed the stock from the Top Picks list.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says as crude goes higher, it makes more and more sense to go for other energy options.
Every day that oil goes up, there is a new set of technologies that had formerly been priced out of the market that comes back to life. Let's take wind. Wind, in itself, just seems so stupid. It needs, well, wind. Much of our country doesn't have enough wind to make this economic. There are only certain regions that can really benefit.
But when oil is at $130, SO WHAT! The parts of the country that have a lot of wind are nuts not to do wind. Wind, when properly integrated into the grid, costs 4 cents a kilowatt. The issue has been shortage of everything that goes into a windmill, because nobody in the chain thought it was worthwhile to mass-produce them. So even though the cost is low, no companies felt it was worth it because the market seemed so niche.
In other words, it was the wind supply chain that was the problem, because we only thought in terms of gigantic plants that created energy. But with nuclear not an option -- never will be in this country, if you ask me -- natural gas falling out of favor post-Katrina as being unreliable, and coal simply intolerable because of the climate problems, wind has become the most natural fuel of all.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
I don't normally toot my own horn, but stock picks I made earlier this year through my investment newsletter have done far better than the S&P which has fallen 6% since the beginning of the year.
Each month my newsletter mentions three stocks. I average the percentage changes in the stocks I mention at the end of each month. I also have a stop loss rule in which stocks that decline by 2% are sold from the theoretical portfolio and the -2% return is included in the average for the month.
The top three performing stocks through April are:
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The energy debate rages on as oil and gas futures bounce around with 30% corrections. Which side of the energy debate are you on? Bears say that oil and gas prices are coming back down to earth. Speculators and hedge funds bid them up, global demand is slowing and alternative forms of energy will soon replace the fossil fuels we've come to depend upon. Bulls argue that oil and gas supplies are dwindling at the same time that the emerging market economies (China, India, Brazil and 20 others) need more. As their middle class population builds they too will want cars, air conditioning and electricity and demand will increase. Most oil reserves are in countries with unstable governments and when geopolitical events get ugly, prices tend to skyrocket. .gif){kind=logo}
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I don't normally toot my own horn, but stock picks I made earlier this year through my investment newsletter have done far better than the S&P which has fallen 6% since the beginning of the year.
Nuclear power is on the comeback trail
Apple backs AT&T in continuing spat with Verizon
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