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Playing the downside with ETFs

Using long-term seasonal cycle studies, Sy Harding was 100% invested until mid-May, when he exited the stock market. He notes, "We may have been early in taking bear fund positions, but it has now paid off."

In his Street Smart Report, the advisor now says, "We continue to expect the low won't be seen until the October-November time frame." In line with this view, he reviews the "downside ETF positions" in his model portfolio.

The advisor explains, "We believe the correction has just begun. We still expect a decline of 20% or more for the Russell from its peak to its low in the October-November time frame."

In his Aggressive Seasonal Timing Strategy portfolio, the advisor has been holding a pair of exchange-traded funds that bet on the downside: ProShares Short Dow ETF (ASE: DOG) and ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (ASE: SH)."

For those not holding these ETFs, Harding suggests buying now. He forecasts, "Wall Street and market pundits will be trying to hold the market up by focusing investor attention on earnings. But earnings won't matter as the real problem won't go away."

Continue reading Playing the downside with ETFs

Top Picks 2007: And the winner is ... financials

In recent posts, I have reviewed the newsletter advisors' Top Picks from 2007, first highlighting stocks that were in the healthcare, tech, and telecom sectors and then highlighting favorites in the out-of-favor metals and energy areas.

To conclude this review, I'm turning now to the most popular sector in this year's annual Top Picks report -- financial stocks. Of particular note this year is the type of financial stocks that rose to the top of the advisors' buy lists.

In past years, it was routine to see brokerage firms and large cap consumer banks among the Top Picks. This year, only one such company was chosen; Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) was selected as the favorite stock of both Mark Skousen and Kelley Wright.

Outside of Citi, the advisory community looked to an area that has rarely been cited in previous Top Picks reports --specialty finance companies. For example, Gordon Pape selected Brookfield Asset Management, which provides financing to real estate ventures.

Neil George chose a pair of companies spun off from Australia's Macquarie Bank. Both the Macquarie Infrastructure Trust (NYSE:MIC) and the Macquarie Infrastructure Group (OTC:MCORF) provide financing to global road, bridge, and airport development projects.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: And the winner is ... financials

Top Picks 2007: Fun at the fair with Sy Harding

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Stocks Report.

Cedar Fair, LP (NYSE: FUN) is the top conservative stock pick for 2007 from Sy Harding, editor of Street Smart Report. He explains, "With its recent $1.2 billion acquisition of Paramount Parks from CBS Corp., Cedar Fair now operates 17 popular regional theme parks, and five water parks, in 13 states in the U.S. and one province of Canada.

"Cedar Fair is noted for exciting rides, with roller coaster enthusiasts traveling the Cedar Fair circuit on a regular basis to check out the latest offerings. For instance, its Cedar Point Park in Ohio now offers 65 rides and 16 roller coasters, including Top Thrill Dragster, the world's tallest and fastest coaster, and Millennium Force, the world's top-rated coaster for thrills.

"Thrill rides for the brave, water slides, wave action pools, and the like, are only a portion of the magnetism for customers. The parks are family oriented, with attractions for smaller children themed around the 'Peanuts' comic strip characters, and a variety of upscale hotels and restaurants for parents.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Fun at the fair with Sy Harding

Top Picks 2007: Sy Harding sees gold at ASA

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

ASA Bermuda Ltd. (NYSE: ASA), a precious metals closed-end investment company, is the favorite speculation for 2007 from Sy Harding. The editor of StreetSmart Reports explains, "Its by-laws require that it have at least 80% of its investments in the stocks of gold, silver, platinum, or diamond mining companies.

"Its holdings at year-end 2006 were approximately 70% in gold mining companies, with its largest holdings including Gold Fields Ltd., AngloGold Ashanti, and Barrick Gold. The balance of its assets are in other natural resource stocks including Anglo Platinum, Anglo American PLC, and Impala Platinum.

"We expect the bull market in gold and precious metals, which began in 2001, will continue in 2007. Gold tends to move opposite to the U.S. dollar, and in the same direction as the price of crude oil and inflation in general. Many analysts believe the U.S. dollar will be in a continuing downtrend in 2007. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve says it is still concerned about rising inflation.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Sy Harding sees gold at ASA

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