Shares of retail giant Best Buy (BBY) traded higher Thursday morning after the company posted better-than-expected earnings for its fourth quarter.

Going into the earnings report, analysts had been expecting to see Best Buy report earnings of $1.84 per share for the quarter. Best Buy topped estimates by posting earnings of $1.98 per share.

Target Corp. (TGT) is one of the top ten largest retailers in the U.S. by sales, competing mainly with Walmart (WMT), Best Buy (BBY), Macy's (M), Sears (SHLD) and Costco (COST). The recent economic environment has revealed that the firm is highly exposed to U.S. macro-economic trends that impact retail spending, such as high rising energy prices, lower home values and downturns in the economy. Although Target positions itself as a "cheap chic" retailer, consumers are still cutting back on goods such as apparel and electronics, both of which play an important role in Target's total sales.

Target (TGT) has not been a good stock at all since the turn of the year. Take a look at the twelve-month chart. Find where the shares were on Jan. 3. Got it? Now, do you see what happened since then? I don't think you can miss such a big drop.

The 52-week low for the retailer is $48.23; the 52-week high is $60.97. The equity finished down 0.7% to $51.30 on Monday. Volume, thankfully, was below average. That lack of conviction could be a saving grace.

What a difference a few months can make. Back in December, I was a bit bearish on Big Lots (BIG). That was at $29.50. Know what the stock closed at yesterday? Its final price was $41.33. And that's rather close to the 52-week high of $42.27.

To fully appreciate how dramatic the rise in the stock has been requires a look at the one-year chart. Impressive, isn't it? I guess I should have been a stronger believer in the retailer. So, what should I be thinking now?

Retail giant Target Corp. (TGT) reported its fourth quarter results this morning, and a strong holiday shopping season helped boost profit by 11%.

The company reported earnings of $1.38 per share, slightly lower than the $1.40 that analysts had been expecting. During the same period last year, the company earned $1.24 per share.

Analyst Upgrades

• Athenahealth (ATHN), Ensco (ESV), Pride International (PDE) and Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• CIRCOR (CIR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Shaw Group (SHAW) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to buy from neutral, as well as Intrepid Potash (IPI) to neutral from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Carlisle (CSL) to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Perhaps it is the cynic in me, but I was not surprised to read this story about Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) from Bloomberg. The news outlet obtained an e-mail that was sent to Walmart managers instructing them to raise prices on an average of 1,800 types of toys per store. The managers were instructed to perform the price markups "as soon as possible" and were told that the price changes were "to better enable your store and the company to have a successful financial month."

Walmart stated that these price increases went into effect because temporary discounts on products (including toys) ended on November 30. Spokesman Ravi Jariwala, spokesman for Walmart, said in an e-mail, "Once a rollback ends, the item returns to its original everyday low price." That said, Eric Johnson director of the Center for Digital Strategies at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth noted that "In previous years Wal-Mart has come out and hammered everyone with unbelievably low toy prices ... They stepped away from that this year and after Thanksgiving their prices have crept back up."

Big Lots (BIG), a retailer whose colleagues include Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT), was feeling the wrath of the sellers on Friday. The stock closed down 5% to $29.50. Volume was above the norm.

According to Briefing.com, the company made 23 cents per share in the third quarter. Unfortunately, that was one penny below the overall forecast. In addition, guidance for Q4 wasn't too striking, and same-store sales experienced only slight growth.

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Red Hat (RHT) to overweight from neutral.
• Honeywell (HON) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Regal-Beloit (RBC) and Actuant (ATU) were upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• RW Baird upgraded MedAssets (MDAS) to outperform from neutral.
• Savvis (SVVS) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at William Blair.

GameStop Corp. (GME) is down about 3.8% at the time of this writing. That places the quote at $20.20. Volume is pretty heavy. The 52-week low for the stock is $17.12; the 52-week high is $26.05. Looks like the market isn't exactly sure what to do with this company as the shares are at a comfortable distance between the two extremes.

Earlier today, the video-game chain reported earnings for the third quarter. According to the press release, net income, on an adjusted basis, came in at 38 cents per share. That was one penny above the estimate. Total company same-store sales increased 1.1%.

Last week, Macy's (M) and JCPenney (JCP) kicked off the retail earnings season by posting better-than-expected earnings for the most recent quarter. Many more quarterly reports from retailers are due this week, and by and large expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are high.

Walmart (WMT), the king of retailers, is expected to buck the trend, though. Analysts anticipate that the Bentonville-based company will report that its third-quarter earnings grew only 6.7% year-over-year to 90 cents per share. During the three months that ended in October, Walmart announced an acquisition in South Africa and kicked-off the holiday shopping season, and revenue for that period is predicted to have risen 3.0% to $102.4 billion. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, analysts so far expect sequential and year-over-year growth of both earnings and revenue. Walmart results have not fallen short of consensus estimates in the past five quarters.

I was reading a rather interesting article in The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) about the potential for a holiday toy war between Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT). The price war centers on toys because "parents will buy stuff for their kids even when the economy is awful."

The article adds that shoppers have attempted to buy the "biggest toy bargains" while "ignor[ing] stores' other offerings." However, the article is quick to point out improving economic conditions suggest that retailers have a reason to believe the shoppers will look around the store a bit more and be quicker to part with some cash. Is this a safe assumption? Yes, I think that it is. However, I have a couple of reservations.

Analyst Upgrades

• KeyBanc upgraded Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to hold from underweight based on Singapore performance and a potential revaluation of the yuan.
• ThinkEquity upgraded Seattle Genetics (SGEN) to buy from hold based on the positive SGN-35 HL data. The firm raised its price target to $16 from $12.
• Merriman upgraded Applied Signal (APSG) to buy from neutral with a $28 to $31 valuation range, citing greater confidence in earnings estimates and the company's recent contract wins.
• Siliconware Precision (SPIL) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
• Pulte Group (PHM) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Greenbrier (GBX) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.