Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.

Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.

In what is becoming standard practice in retail, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) reported a same-store sales increase of 2.1% in January while competitor Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) experienced a same-store sales decline of 1.6% from the year-ago period. Surprising? Not at all.

As the economic stimulus bill hangs around Capitol Hill and more and more Americans are becoming unemployed, Wal-Mart is continuing to experience an influx of business that's coming in from the competition. This will continue throughout 2009. Even though Wal-Mart won't be giving monthly same-store sales forecasts for the time being, the retailer will be one of the very few shining lights in retail this year.

With the hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. Government bailouts and the largest mess in decades within the U.S. financial system, will consumers draw back their wallets and purses this holiday season and hurt the U.S. economy even more? Although retailer Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has seen same-store sames growth from the late Spring to now, not all retailers have been as lucky. Sentiment says consumers are leaving non-discount stores and flocking to Wal-Mart and its low prices. No big surprise, really.

This means retailers will have to 1) get aggressive on marketing and promotion that differentiates their brand and positioning, or 2) compete on price and make that known to the shopping public. How about making sure customers know where to find goods (hint: don't change store layouts to accommodate holiday promotions) as well as the old-fashioned value proposition?

Art Hammer from consulting firm QualPro told Reuters that "What we have seen is that fire sales are not working ... the people who still have money seem to be spending the same total, but are getting a little bit better merchandise or a little bit better service. Wow -- heavy discounts not working in a down economy? Sounds odd, right? But that's the theory. So, as the holiday season gears up for what could be the lousiest season in a decade or more here in a month, we'll see if expert sentiment is correct.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Encore Energy, Corporate Executive Board, FTI Consulting and Great Lakes Dredge were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Stanford believes shares of Encore Energy Partners LP (NYSE: ENP) are reasonably valued, and started shares with a Hold rating and $20.50 target.
• The Corporate Executive Board Company (NASDAQ: EXBD) was initiated with a Neutral at Baird, as they have concerns regarding the slowing economy near-term.
• Baird also started shares of FTI Consulting Inc (NYSE: FCN) with an Outperform rating and a $64 target, as they believe the company is well-positioned for continued strong growth driven by positive macro demand and specific company drivers.
• Banc of America initiated Great Lakes Dredge and Dock Corporation (NASDAQ: GLDD) with a Neutral rating and $10 target. The firm believes near-term visibility is closed by an unsettled Army Corps/domestic funding policy and is looking for a more attractive valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Jefferies initiated Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc (NYSE: BJ) with Buy ratings and a $58 target and $46 target and shares of Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) with Hold ratings and a $62-$65 target and $66-$69 target, respectively.
• Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Wachovia.