A second stimulus package would help lessen the effects of a U.S. recession, many economists -- including the Chairman of the Fed -- agree, but whether Congress can pass one by year's end remains an open question.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke boosted a second stimulus package's prospects by arguing in Congressional testimony Tuesday that the likelihood of a protracted slowdown stemming from weak U.S. economic fundamentals, aggravated by the financial crisis, convinced him to support a new round of fiscal stimulus, Bloomberg News reported.

Bernanke underscored that he was commenting only on a potential fiscal stimulus package's economic impact/merits: the decision to approve/reject a package and the composition/form of any package remains the decision of Congress.

Second stimulus check ahead?

What are the chances taxpayers will receive a second stimulus check/tax rebate?

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday the worsening economy "appears to be shifting the political winds in Washington and they [elected officials] may very well pass a second stimulus package."

"I think the prospects of a $150-$200 billion stimulus package passing are pretty good," Wang said. "The main problem is unemployment. Retail sales are down and businesses are trimming back payrolls, which means unemployment will continue to rise. Rising unemployment is bad news for earnings and for the economy, so any stimulus package that creates jobs would be a help. The stimulus could also provide a refinance provision to allow homeowners to refinance mortgages with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at lower rates of, say, 5.5-7%."

Bernanke's testimony occurred on the heels of a White House about-face on a second package. The Bush Administration is now "open to the idea" of a second package, White House Press Secretary Dana Pirino told Bloomberg News Monday.

With unemployment rising and the signs of slowdown all around, is a second tax rebate or second stimulus check from Congress up ahead?

The U.S. economy continues to slow. More than 800,000 jobs have been lost since the slowdown began about a year ago, and many economists say the lay-offs are likely to continue or even increase.

Meanwhile, the world's major industrialized nations are striving to stabilize the global financial system and end a credit crunch that could further damage economies around the world.

Well, the answer to the question about a second stimulus check may very well rest on the answer to this one: Who are you voting for on Election Day, November 4?

Key factor: 2008 Election

Congressional Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, have vowed to push for a second stimulus package totaling up to $150 billion to help jump-start the anemic U.S. economy, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

The Internal Revenue Service is reporting that it still has about 5.2 million tax rebate checks which it cannot send out because the people who should get them have not filed a 2007 tax return. According to a report in USA Today, these citizens only need to fill in a few lines on IRS form 1040A, in order to get their money. The IRS says that veterans and retirees, those who could use the money the most, make up the major portion of the population that has not yet received it's rebates. The IRS expects to issue 124 million rebate payments by year's end. So far, about 76.5 million of those payments have gone out.

Ever since Monday I've been stuck with a pressing dilemma: What to do with my economic stimulus payment. To be frank, I was actually surprised to receive a letter from the IRS this week since the payment schedule for those who had filed their returns electronically had passed. I assumed that I was unable to qualify for one.

Without giving away my adjusted gross income, I always knew that I wouldn't get the full $600 that was distributed to most single taxpayers, but I wasn't exactly sure if I'd get a fraction of that. And I don't mean to seem ungrateful or anything, but when I read the letter and found out that I would receive a windfall of $6.95, as you can imagine, I was kind of taken aback, so I immediately called friends and family members to inform them of my newfound fortune.

I mean, what exactly is a person to do with $6.95 in this day and age anyway? With soaring inflation, I'll be lucky to buy myself a one-way bus ticket down the block.

At least consumers with full-sized payments took to the malls in the second quarter, boosting retail sales – let's see how long that lasts. But I just don't know how my $6.95 is going to stimulate anything. I've narrowed my list of options. Here's what I've been grappling with.

Most Americans are giving their tax rebate to Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). It should hardly be surprising that with oil at around $130 and the prices of most commodities used to make food doubling over the last year, the the money from Uncle Sam will not go for a new PlayStation.

The tax rebate was meant to stimulate the economy. Instead, it may be going to a fairly narrow group of companies including credit card firms and oil behemoths. That was hardly the plan, but, in an odd way, the government's program to get money to the consumer may be fueling inflation, at least in the energy sector.

The more the consumer spends on gas, the more likely it is that gas prices will stay high.

According to The New York Times, "Recent surveys underscore that many households are now too worried about the rising cost of driving and eating to spend freely, even as cash lands in their laps."

It is the law of unintended consequences at work, meaning that money back from the Treasury may do nothing to make the economy better.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's prediction that the 2008 tax rebate will create 500,000 jobs may come up a tad short, if a Bloomberg News survey is telling.

The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecasts a stimulus package-induced job increase on 158,500 -- far short of Paulson's forecast, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Paulson and other Bush Administration officials are hopeful the stimulus package will create jobs both directly and via spin-off effect -- for example, jobs created in manufacturing when goods are purchased; and jobs created in feeder industries to the manufacturing sector, etc.

The administration views the tax cut as intrinsic to jump-starting a U.S. economy slowed to a crawl (or perhaps already in negative growth) by its worst housing recession in more than 15 years, and by record-high oil and gasoline prices. (Oil traded Friday up $2.21 to $133.02 per barrel. Oil is up about 100% in 12 months.)

Economic Analysis: Analysts and economists vary regarding the tax rebate's job creation potential, and the 158.5K Bloomberg survey estimate is most likely on the mark. It's possible the tax rebate could create 500,000 new jobs, but the U.S. economy would have to experience an extraordinary boost in GDP growth in 2H 2008. The more likely scenario: only modest GDP growth in 2H 2008, which will make the Bush Administration the first administration to preside over a net drop in payrolls since the Eisenhower Administration in 1960, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Tax rebates are starting to arrive, and many retailers are looking for ways to get your money from you with enticing deals.

The Associated Press reports that Congress has reached an agreement on an economic stimulus package. The report does not estimate the total size of the package, but it says that taxpayers will receive rebate checks ranging between $300 and $1,000 per household. Businesses will get tax breaks as well.

And the devil is in the details. Under the tentative plan, families with children would receive an additional $300 per child, subject to an overall cap of perhaps $1,200. Rebates would go to people earning below $75,000 and couples with incomes of $150,000 or less. Workers would have to have earned at least $3,000 in 2007 to receive the rebates.

Businesses would receive $70 billion in tax breaks to invest in plants and equipment, and the plan would give small businesses more generous expensing rules and allow businesses suffering losses now to reclaim previously paid taxes. Furthermore, the plan would raise the size of the mortgages that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) could buy from $417,000 to $700,000.

So what does this all mean to you?

This one may make the record books for an approved, federal stimulus package, if it becomes law within a month.

U.S. Congressional officials from both parties and White House aides announced Thursday morning they have reached a tentative deal on an economic stimulus plan, an aide close to the negotiations said, Reuters reported.

"We have an agreement in principle," said the aide, who spoke on condition he not be identified. Plan costs were not immediately available.

The Democratic Party-led U.S. Congress and the Republican Party-led White House have been negotiating a $140-160 billion fiscal packaged aimed at stimulating the U.S. economy, which most economists believe is growing well below trend-growth levels. Many believe the economy is growing at about 1.0-1.5%, if it hasn't already fallen into a recession.

The major public policy players in Washington appear to be lining up in support of a fiscal stimulus package to help jump-start the ailing U.S. economy.

Professor Emeritus David E. RePass of the University of Connecticut once said that, "Congress doesn't react, unless not reacting will result in the Congress bearing the wrath of the American voter."

In this instance, it looks like the Congress has heard about, or has at least taken the pulse of economic conditions in their home districts, and is set to act on a stimulus package. And, by all accounts, it looks like they may do it in near-record time. (The late writer Mark Twain would add here, "Famous last words.")

Fiscal stimulus: full speed ahead

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said she expects to introduce an economic stimulus package after she meets with President Bush next Tuesday, CBS News reported. Further, on Friday, President Bush outlined a proposed $140 billion stimulus plan, which will include tax cuts and other tax credits, The Wall Street Journal reported. In his statement Friday, Bush did not provide specifics, but lawmakers close to the White House said the administration is set to propose tax rebates of $800 and $1,600, for individuals and households, respectively, and is set to provide businesses with a 50% tax deduction for new equipment purchases, The Journal reported.