Sun Microsystems' (NASDAQ: JAVA) preliminary numbers for the fourth quarter sparked an after-sessions rally on Tuesday. The tech entity said it should see somewhere between $3.7 billion and $3.8 billion for the top line. Earnings per diluted share will come in between $0.25 and $0.35 on a non-GAAP basis. Gross margin should be at least 44%.
Wall Street was apparently happy that Sun didn't expect an earnings bomb, according to this Reuters article. Understandable, considering the current state of the economy. It looks like Sun has an okay chance of meeting or beating earnings expectations. Reuters says that analysts are looking for 10 cents per share on a GAAP basis. Management is looking to do somewhere between 5 cents and 15 cents per share. It's too bad the range wasn't more narrow, but I guess the theme here is that if business is at least this good, then the shares are a buy.
As for me, I'm not sure I see the merit of the euphoria. Sure, things could have been worse, but that doesn't mean I want to buy Sun here. The stock has done horribly this year, losing 50% of its value year-to-date (at least before the rally). I think investors should be very careful about chasing values during these bearish times. It's hard to say how bad the recession will be, and how it will affect the tech names. Companies such as Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) have seen their stocks pressured by sellers. If the shares of those blue chips are having problems, I can't see why I'd want to chase Sun Microsystems.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
As expected, Apple announced today the launch of its next generation iPhone, and the new phone will come with a price tag that is $200 less than the current model. The new 3G iPhones are going to hit the market with a $199 price tag.
A big reason for the release of the the new iPhones is the desire by Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to hit their goal of selling 10 million phones by the end of the year. The new phone will have faster Internet connection and satellite navigation capabilities. If you are like me, and have been postponing the purchase of a new phone in anticipation of today's announcement, you will have to wait a bit longer. The new phones will be available on July 11.
While the new phones will be about half the price of the current models, the monthly service plans will be a bit higher. Look for a $39.99 monthly plan, plus another $30 monthly fee for unlimited data. This works out to be about a $10 monthly increase, but considering the improvements of the new phones, not too bad of a deal if you ask me. Supposedly the new iPhones will be able to download data twice as fast as the current model.
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. In general, turnaround and business model change plays are avoided, but there are exceptions to the rule, and one is Corning.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), once a reliable but slow-growth kitchenware and cookware company, today represents one of the signature corporate transformation stories of the digital age.
Corning is one of the leading providers of fiber-optic cable, which the company invented more than 30 years ago. Further, its substrates business did not draw Wall Street's attention until technological advances enabled the price-competitive production of flat panel displays in flat panel televisions, desktop monitors and notebook computers.
As cell phone usage continues to spread, more and more Americans are rarely, if ever, talking on landlines anymore. According to a new study, 3 out of 10 homes in the country are virtually completely relying on cell phones.
Cell phones are definitely more convenient, and the more we use them, the more we want to put the days of landlines in our past. According to the study, 16 percent of all homes in the country did not even have a landline installed during the second half of last year.
In addition to the 16 percent of homes that did not even have a landline, 13% of homes in the country had landlines, but reportedly never use them. For the most part, these lines are used exclusively for computers, or to have in the case of an emergency. Whenever you need to call an emergency service number it is advisable to use a landline, because it makes it much easier to identify your location.
Back in January, e-commerce giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) announced some very controversial changes to the site that led to an uproar and seller boycotts within the eBay community. One of the most controversial changes was the decision to remove sellers' ability to leave negative feedback on the buyers, and this change is slated to start this upcoming Monday.
The decision to remove the sellers feedback has led to many eBay sellers finding alternative e-commerce sites to sell their goods, and those who remained are very worried about the impact this decision will have on their business. Sellers insist that the feedback is crucial in sifting through the large amount of buyers that give sellers hassle during transactions, but eBay feels that the change will benefit everyone on the site and prevent sellers from leaving retaliatory ratings for buyers.
The two sides just cannot see eye to eye on this one. Sellers insist that the feedback system allows the site to have a better buying community, while eBay believes that the changes are "really to make sure that we've got buyer accountability and seller accountability."
When one travels in economists' circles, one tends to tap into the issues, controversies and policy ideas 'dismal science' practitioners are debating.
And one issue economists have rattled around concerns the speed of fiscal policy stimulus, or more accurately, the lack thereof. In the digital age, the internet has propelled a host of speed-enhancing changes, and it occurred to this group of economists that U.S. Government policy is decidedly behind the curve in this area.
Here's why: economist David H. Wang noted that the U.S., in an attempt to jump-start its economy stalled by the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years, has implemented a host of monetary policy changes to provide monetary stimulus quicker. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut key, short-term interests multiple times during a 10-week span (and later implemented additional rate cuts), and devised two, new, Fed-administered institutions to address the credit crisis, provide liquidity, and ensure the orderly operation of financial markets.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. But every once in while an exception is made, and with the above in mind, L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL) is worth a review.
L-3 makes secure and specialized systems for satellite, avionics, and marine communications, with a healthy percentage of its business coming from the U.S. Government.
Analysts like LLL's diversified revenue streams: specialized products (34%) intelligence/communications (22%) government services (25%), and aircraft modernization and maintenance (19%).
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) shares are trading higher after tech bellwether Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) reported a first quarter profit of $1.44 billion, or 25 cents per share, in line with analysts' estimates. While many investors were expecting weak results, INTC noted in a press release that microprocessor sales were in line with seasonal trends, which could be a good sign for MRVL. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MRVL.
After hitting a one-year high of $20.04 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $9.77 in January. MRVL opened this morning at $10.76. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.53 and a high of $10.95. As of 12:30, MRVL is trading at $10.91, up $0.41 (3.9%). The chart for MRVL looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just four months as long as MRVL is above $7.50 at August expiration. Marvell would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
We've speculated for months that Gilat was about to be acquired for a premium over its current stock price. The Israeli communications provider has been very active from a sales point of view, landing deals with the U.S. Postal Service, building a network for Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and expanding its global distribution. It had turned down offers earlier last year. Prominent hedge fund, York Capital, owned a big chunk of Gilat's debt, which it converted into stock last year, making it a 30% holder. Pretty bullish signal for Gilat.
Well, the firm announced that it is to be acquired by a group of investors for $11.40/share recently. I'm blogging this less as giving us a pat on the back (though, it does feel good to get one right) but to point out an interesting part of the deal.
The deal isn't supposed to close for another six months or so. Interestingly, in a squirmy market, this stock is trading almost 7% down from its acquisition price. A 6% return for six months, or an annualized 12%, isn't a bad return if you think the deal is going to go through. I won't handicap this deal, but the consortium appears serious about its offer and its ability to get the deal done. In a bad market, it's very possible that a deal like this falls through. We saw a similar thing occur with ECI Telecom, an Israeli buyout last year, that traded almost 10% below its purchase price leading right up to the deal.
Worth taking a look and doing the research.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) is falling today along with most other technology stocks after Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) cut its first quarter earnings outlook, citing weak memory chip prices. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TXN.
After hitting a one-year high of $39.63 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $28.00 in January. This morning, TXN opened at $29.71. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.53 and a high of $29.80. As of 1:00, TXN is trading at $28.93, down $1.00 (-3.3%). The chart for TXN looks neutral and improving while S&P gives TXN a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $35 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 12.1% return in four and a half months as long as TXN is below $35 at July expiration. Texas Instruments would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. But every once in while an exception is made for a non-conforming but innovative/promising company, and along this line EnerNOC is worth a review.
EnerNOC, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENOC) develops and provides clean power solutions to commercial, institutional, and industrial customers, as well as to electric power grid operators and utilities.
Analysts really like ENOC's next-generation, technology-based business model. The company uses its network operations center to remotely manage electricity consumption across a network of end-use customer sites and to make electric capacity and energy available on demand to grid operators and utilities.
QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) shares are trading higher, regaining the losses made during yesterday afternoon's sell-off, after tech giant Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) posted a first-quarter profit of 86 cents per share, beating analyst estimates of 81 cents per share. The news has investors excited about the tech sector, with some analysts saying that the industry may be able to squeak by during the economic slowdown without too much collateral damage. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on QCOM.
After hitting a one-year high of $47.72 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $35.17 in January. QCOM opened this morning at $41.96. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.75 and a high of $42.87. As of 11:15, QCOM is trading at $42.67, up $0.72 (1.7%). The chart for QCOM looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just two months as long as QCOM is above $35 at April expiration. Qualcomm would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.
The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Intuitive Surgical. (Note: Intuitive Surgical is only for investors who can tolerate high risk.)
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) has developed the da Vinci Surgical System of software, hardware and optics that allows doctors to perform robotically-aided surgery from a remote console.
Analysts believe 2008 revenue will move substantially higher on instrument and accessories sales, pricing power and high-definition system upgrades. Yes, high definition is coming to surgery, too.
Longer term, analysts see Intuitive's technology broadening to new surgical procedures. Margins remain massive and are likely to approach 75% in 2008. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for ISRG are $5.05/$6.81.
Some investors / readers probably are not aware that the Internet -- critical as it is today for commercial activities and the flow of information -- was not designed to handle the volume and complexity of today's web tasks. Moreover, the appearance of Internet bottlenecks created an opportunity for Akamai Technologies.
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: AKAM) solutions accelerate and improve the delivery of Internet content and applications.
Analysts like Akamai's broad, 1,800-member customer base, including many blue chip companies. Further, analysts also like the fact that AKAM has continued to deliver material revenue increases and earnings gains, despite infrastructure and related expansion investments.
Further, the consensus among analysts is that 28,000-server Akamai will continue to have a competitive advantage in its key business segments for at least the next two years. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for AKAM are $1.68 to $2.04.
The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Texas Instruments.
Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) is the world's third largest semiconductor company, with operations in more than 25 countries.
In general, analysts see TXN's revenue increasing 5-8% in 2008, with the company likely to increase its leading market share in the analog segment; a smaller annual revenue increase is expected in the handset digital segment. Further, analysts say TXN is well positioned to benefit from increasing use of higher-end analog products. Meanwhile, higher plant utilization and a recent restructuring should aid TXN's bottom line. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for TXN are $2.09/$2.31.