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Is Disney's 'High School Musical' fad fading?

As a Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholder, the High School Musical juggernaut is important to me. It means money for the company. It means a point of distinction for Disney that adds value to its content and differentiates it from other media businesses such as News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). It means that tweens have something realistic to relate to that reflects their own days of breaking out in song while walking through school (okay, that was a joke).

But I was disappointed to hear that a reality show extension of the brand is having a tough time in the ratings. According to this blog post at The Hollywood Reporter, the show, called High School Musical: Get in the Picture, had the worst ratings on Monday night. It's some sort of competition show with a prize related to being in some sort of video in the Musical franchise.

I'm not sure of the specifics, but my main concern is that it couldn't offer any competition to CBS (NYSE: CBS) or General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC. Remember, Disney's big model is to take its content and spread it around to enhance the value of the company's other platforms. It's all about the synergy. Unfortunately, it didn't work this time. I honestly thought that ABC would have seen huge numbers from the kids on this one. It makes me wonder if Musical might be getting long in the tooth.

Continue reading Is Disney's 'High School Musical' fad fading?

In unusual move, NBC refunds ad dollars as ratings slump

NBC Universal took the unusual step of giving advertisers cash back for weak performance in prime time ratings during the Fall 2006-Spring 2007 season, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday [subscription].

Typically, a broadcast network will offer advertisers additional time if a ratings shortfall occurs, but NBC has none to give, Reuters reported. NBC, a division of General Electric (NYSE: GE), is in fourth place in the network ratings wars, and currently has no standout new programs that media buyers desire, The Journal reported. GE's shares gained 30 cents to $37.33 in Wednesday morning trading.

Some industry executives blame the ratings dip partially on the Writers Guild of America strike that began November 5 and that has reduced the supply of original material, Reuters reported. Others cite technical changes in a new ratings formula, or the continuing audience 'fragmentation and dilution,' whereby the networks are losing viewers to specialized cable TV channels and internet activities. However, one experienced analyst believes that while the above variables play a role, the key driver of any ratings change remains a television network's core component: programming.

Continue reading In unusual move, NBC refunds ad dollars as ratings slump

Will the World Series be a home run for Rupert Murdoch?

News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch is probably too busy plotting world domination to spend much time worrying about something trivial like baseball -- until now.

America's pastime is about to start post-season play, most of which will be televised on the company's Fox television network. Already, there was one huge surprise as the Philadelphia Phillies overtook the New York Mets to win the National League East. But this isn't the type of surprise that the media mogul probably likes because a team from a smaller media market beat one from a larger one.

Remember that last year's series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers had record-low television ratings. Advertisers pay a premium price for television spots on the World Series because of the huge audience it attracts. Fox probably has guaranteed that the commercials will be seen by a set amount of viewers and must refund money to advertisers if these targets aren't hit.

Continue reading Will the World Series be a home run for Rupert Murdoch?

NBA Finals see lagging ratings

Even the majesty that is LeBron James couldn't trump Tony Soprano. Game 2 of the NBA finals, which aired on Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC Network, saw a drop in ratings as the San Antonio Spurs won 103-92, going up two games to none against the James-led Cleveland Cavaliers.

Early numbers revealed that the game posted an overnight rating of 6.9 on the network, drawing 5.6% of U.S. TV households. This represents a 24% drop from the previous year's 9.1 rating for Game 2 of the Dallas Mavericks/Miami Heat series. NBA officials cited The Sopranos season finale for a large reason why folks weren't tuning in to catch some hoops. Available in 30 million households, the HBO show drew 11.9 million viewers; the game attracted 8.5 million viewers during the same hour-long time slot.

But The Sopranos finale was just one hour on one night. Maybe the sagging ratings are because both San Antonio and Cleveland are relatively small markets (number 37 and 17, respectively)? Or perhaps in the post-Jordan era, people just don't care as much about professional basketball?

According to USA Today, ESPN's NBA playoff broadcasts this season averaged 2.4% of cable TV households - on par with the rock-bottom numbers of 2003 - while ABC says its regular-season games (up to the finals) have seen ratings drop 40% from 2003 levels.

To maintain a fleeting hope that this year's finals won't set an all-time ratings low, ABC needs the series to go 6 or even 7 games. With the Cavs now down three games to none, that's a severely unlikely possibility.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

World watches while Bonds chases record

Last night, Allan Kreda commented on how Barry Bonds' personal bottom line might fare if (when) he topples Hank Aaron's home-run record (he's currently 10 runs shy at 746). The controversial slugger is lacking in lucrative endorsement deals and facing hefty legal fees. Not that I feel too badly for the guy.

One group that is hoping to benefit as Bonds continues to chase the record is television broadcasters. Polarizing personality or not, Barry Bonds is keeping baseball fans interested in seeing a new entry in the record books (even if an asterisk is involved).

Walt Disney's
(NYSE: DIS) ESPN is hoping to break into its normally scheduled programming whenever Bonds comes to bat once there is the potential to tie or break the record. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) FOX is working with Major League Baseball to air an extra game (outside of its set broadcast schedule) when the record-breaking is imminent.

Continue reading World watches while Bonds chases record

The CW unveils Veronica-free fall schedule

I may have to call in sick for the remainder of the day. My second-favorite show in recent memory, Veronica Mars (number one is the U.S. version of The Office), has apparently met a premature end, as I feared. The precedent has certainly established that critical acclaim and a rabidly loyal cult following aren't enough to save a show (I should know, as a fan of Arrested Development, My So-Called Life, Twin Peaks, Freaks and Geeks ... now I'm getting depressed). But the fat lady has merely warmed up and is waiting in the wings; while the snarky show about the teen P.I. isn't on the CW's fall schedule, it may be considered as a mid-season replacement. Frankly, I wish they'd just put all of us out of our misery. (Edit: Apparently life support has been pulled; the latest update indicates Veronica is officially canceled. Help me.)

Returning: America's Next Top Model, Beauty and the Geek, Everybody Hates Chris, Friday Night Smackdown, The Game, Girlfriends, One Tree Hill, Pussycat Dolls Present (midseason), Smallville, Supernatural.

Canceled: 7th Heaven, All of Us, Gilmore Girls, Reba, Runaway, Veronica Mars (?).

Continue reading The CW unveils Veronica-free fall schedule

Will NBC play the Virginia Tech card?

Temptation, in the form of a package from a madman, landed on NBC's front door this week just as it was reeling from its worst viewership numbers in twenty years.

Last week, ratings for the General Electric's (NYSE:GE) network's prime time programming were their lowest since Nielsen Media Research began using people meter measurements in 1987, and perhaps the worst ever. In light of this, will NBC treat the tragedy with restraint, or give in to the temptation to Geraldo the story to boost ratings?

On average, a paltry 6.8 million viewers tuned in to a lineup full of has-beens (Scrubs), wish-they-weres (30 Rock), and never-will-bes (The Real Wedding Crashers). Only two of their shows, Deal or No Deal and ER, were among the top 30 network programs. Fox's American Idol juggernaut pulverized all competition on both Tuesday and Wednesday night, outdrawing NBC fourfold.

Start the blame game by focusing on Law and Order ABCDEFG... The only life left in these series is in Sam Watterson's wooly eyebrows. Rumor has it the final episode will investigate the death of a network executive, tossed off the roof after suggesting NBC could do just one more spinoff...

Given its woeful recent performance, I can't imagine anything that would challenge the network's sense of ethics more than receiving the Virginia Tech killer Choo Seung-Hui's confession package. I'll be watching with great interest to see just how far the network is willing to exploit the scoop to compensate for a lack of compelling prime time offerings.

Has Cramer hit bottom with Sponge Bob?

In my recent travels I was flipping through channels in my hotel room and came across James Cramer's Mad Money show. I could not believe my eyes; I think Cramer was lying down on the floor, hugging a Sponge Bob Square Pants doll. Did anybody else see that? Was I imagining?

This is a guy I used too look forward to hearing on the radio. He spoke with callers and discussed their portfolio's and how to diversify, offering solid advice to those interested in learning. I used to get in email discussions with Cramer years ago when he had the time to answer emails. This is a guy that had plenty of interesting ideas, and I know he still does... but I did not hear any that day. He went on to make some glib comments about a few stocks and took some calls but I found it entirely unwatchable after ten to fifteen minutes. I was amazed and bewildered. He backed up nothing that he said with the slightest depth of thought. Instead I witnessed him stab the doll with a knife and throw the mutilated doll across the room. Funny? Entertaining? Not to me ---- how sad I thought. This must be the end. He has gone wacko for ratings.

In Hollywood they have an expression they use when a television show has run out of ideas, They say "it has jumped the shark". This comes from a Happy Days episode, the long running TV show, where in one of the last shows Fonzie was surfing and jumps over a shark. You knew it was over when you saw that. Well that is the feeling I had when I saw Cramer curled up with Sponge Bob. He has jumped the shark! It's all over, and it is ironic that it came to pass that a creature of the sea was involved again.

Perhaps I'm wrong? Maybe I'm too serious? Has he gone too far? Is this necessary in a show about investing?

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 06:27 AM

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