Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., believes that the global stock market will fall by up to 30%. The strong rebound following last year's calamity is likely to be impeded by profit-taking on the upswing. Basically, an increase of 70%, he says, will lead to a decrease of 20 to 30%.

The greatest risk in a recovering stock market comes from the increase in new stock and bond issuances, Mobius says. To participate in these new deals, investors would have to liquidate existing positions, which can put downward pressure on the market as a whole. Money doesn't come from nowhere, and new capital will come on the backs of the previous investments.

One of the greatest investors of the 20th Century, Sir John Templeton, died today in the Bahamas at age 95. If you've invested with a contrarian style or in emerging markets, you probably owe some thanks to what he probably would've called "progress" in those fields.

In the investing world Templeton was known for the work he did on the Templeton Growth Fund, where he was one of the few investors to beat the S&P over the long haul. "If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd," he once said.

Templeton did that by exploring the then-completely exotic world of emerging markets. "The other boys at Yale came from wealthy families, and none of them were investing outside the United States, and I thought, 'That is very egotistical. Why be so shortsighted or near-sighted as to focus only on America? Shouldn't you be more open-minded?'"

He also looked for beaten down and neglected companies. He famously bought $100 worth of 104 companies trading at less than $1 in 1937 and quadrupled his money in four years.

In the rest of the world he was known for financing research into what he called spiritual "progress." He felt spirituality and religion were neglected. To change that, he started offering the Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion in 1972, which always makes sure it gives out more money than the Nobel Committee.

Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), an asset management company that works under the name Franklin Templeton Investments, came out yesterday with strong numbers. They reported income of $518.3 million, or $2.12 per share diluted, on revenues of $1,685.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. In the quarter ended September 30, 2007, net income was $436.9 million, or $1.76 per share diluted, on revenues of $1,629.1 million. For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, net income was $426.8 million, or $1.67 per share diluted, on revenues of $1,427.8 million.

Operating income for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 was $635.7 million, as compared to $541.4 million for the prior quarter and $508.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006.

In what many considered a very challenging environment for the asset management industry, they continue to grow their business. The stock has gotten pounded along with the rest of the market, and is over 30% off its' high.

This seems like a great long-term play. Their are many catalysts that should help drive earnings in the coming quarters.

1) A 33.3% increase in its quarterly dividend over the dividend paid the prior quarter and the same quarter last year. The company has increased its annual dividend rate every year since 1981.

2)10 million shares stock buyback

3)The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China's largest commercial bank, selected Franklin Templeton Investments to manage its newest Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor fund for domestic Chinese retail and institutional investors.

This may be the biggest driver going forward, as they will get a big chunk of Chinese retail and institutional money.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has a position and is long BEN. He has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 1/25/08