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Best Stocks for 2008: Emissions standards boost Tenneco (TEN)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Our favorite speculative play for 2008 is auto supplier Tenneco (NYSE: TEN)," says Bill Martin, editor of BullMarket.com. "The stock has been hammered along with the rest of the auto parts sector of late due to weak US auto sales and a slew of analyst downgrades.

"However, the company is taking market share, and is a solid play on tightening global emissions standards. On a macro level, there is considerable momentum in favor of emissions regulations right now, and this is allowing Tenneco to expand into additional markets, rapidly expand its technology road map, and win customers with the most innovative products available. In fact, we view Tenneco more as a technology company in a high-growth market than simply an auto parts supplier.

"The company faces a number of headwinds, including production cuts by the Big Three US automakers and rising steel prices. So far, though, the company has been able to 'outgrow' its weaker markets and mitigate input costs through aftermarket price increases to OE customers.

"Tenneco should also benefit from reducing the leverage on its balance sheet. We anticipate that growing cash flows and the increased size and diversity of its business will lead to a lower cost of capital and allow shareholders to benefit from reduced interest expense. Taken all together, we think Tenneco will be a solid performer in 2008 amidst low expectations."

Analyst upgrades: TEVA, NVAX, COCO, FIC and TEN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Teva Pharma, Novavax, Corinthian Colleges, Fair Isaac and Tenneco were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Outperform from Market Perform following Teva's better-than-expected Q3 report and guidance.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) to Buy from Neutral based on positive expectations for Ph I/IIa pandemic influenza data, the start of clinical trials for seasonal influenza, and expected announcement of a vaccine product candidate in Q4.
  • Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill following its better-than-expected Q1 report and guidance.
  • Citigroup upgraded of Fair Isaac (NYSE: FIC) to Buy from Hold shares to reflect the company's strong Q4 results and improved outlook.
  • Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia based on valuation and revenue opportunities in commercial truck market.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst initiations: SVU, SPWR, LKQX and CHTR and PUB

MOST NOTEWORTHY: SuperValu, SunPower, LKQ and Charter Comm were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Banc of America started shares of SuperValu Inc (NYSE: SVU) with a Sell rating and $34 target as they believe the company will struggle to modernize its store base and reset its pricing to more competitive levels over the next 12 months.
  • William Blair initiated SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) shares with an Outperform rating, citing the company's large market opportunity and strong technology/market positioning.
  • LKQ (NASDAQ: LKQX) was started at Deutsche Bank with a Hold rating and $35 target. The firm believes the company's growth projections are priced into shares.
  • JP Morgan initiated Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) with an Overweight rating, as they expect the company to be able to refinance its maturing debt over the next five years and generate attractive returns.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst downgrades: STM, BIIB, ACBA and XTXI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: STMicroelectronics, Biogen Idec, American Community Bank and Crosstex Energy were today's notable downgrades:
  • Lehman downgraded STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) to Underweight from Overweight, as they expect the company to underperform its peers.
  • UBS downgraded Biogen Idec Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) to Sell from Neutral, citing valuation and their belief that there would be no significant premium if the company was bought.
  • American Community Bancshares (NASDAQ: ACBA) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel, based on valuation.
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded Crosstex Energy Inc (NASDAQ: XTXI) to Neutral from Buy, citing valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • PepsiAmericas Inc (NYSE: PAS) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral by HSBC.
  • Amodcs Ltd (NYSE: DOX) was removed from the Conviction Buy List by Goldman Sachs.
  • Citigroup assumed coverage of Tenneco Inc (NYSE: TEN) with a Sell from a Hold.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to Equal Weight from Overweight.

Analyst downgrades: CFC, MHP, SMRT and USG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: McGraw-Hill (MHP), Stein Mart (SMRT), USG Corp (USG) and Seacoast Banking (SBCF) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) to Neutral from Overweight based on expectations for a decline in credit market issuance activity.
  • Stein Mart (NASDAQ: SMRT) was cut to Sell from Neutral at Merrill, citing macroeconomic concerns and the impact on margins and comps.
  • Matrix cut USG (NYSE: USG) to Sell from Buy and removed them from the Focus List, Matrix cited the 55% cut in excess cash per share over the past year, which makes shares expensive on a performance-adjusted basis.
  • Stifel views Seacoast Banking (NASDAQ: SBCF) as overvalued, downgrading shares to Sell from Hold, given earnings growth headwinds from credit quality and net interest margin compression...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

More Countrywide Financial news

Rising tides: Trader targets a trio of technology trends

Noting that it's always harder to swim upstream, trader Bill Martin looks into groups set to benefit from "rising tides" in the year ahead." Martin, the original found of the Raging Bull website, now features his stock advice in his FindProfit newsletter.

In his latest issue he looks at themes for "nimble investors in the year ahead," including a trio of tech trends - emissions control, print-on-demand, and web analytics.

New Emission Technology:

Martin explains, "Thanks to new government regulations that kicked-in in early 2007, and with additional rules on tap for 2010, the opportunities around automobile and truck emission technologies continue to grow."

His top picks include Tenneco (NYSE: TEN), which he says, "Should be a prime beneficiary, as it has already locked up a number of valuable design wins that are going to market this year and next."

His other top pick is Corning (NYSE: GLW), which is best known for its LCD glass and fiber businesses. Martin notes, "Corning is set to ramp its Environmental Technologies business, thanks to its innovations in diesel emission technologies. We believe that this upside is not priced into GLW stock, and thus we would be interested in accumulating the stock on weakness.

Print On-Demand Technology:

"Enabled by brisk advances in printing technologies, the world of large-scale printing is poised to rapidly change," observes Martin. He notes that it is now becoming more cost competitive for companies and consumers to print exactly what they need when they need it, rather than the inefficient and wasteful process of warehousing thousands of varying forms, brochures, stationery, etc.

He notes, "This is a tectonic shift for the printing industry that will drive consolidation among providers, while rewarding companies that jump out in front with the latest technologies." His picks to play this trend are Cenveo (NYSE: CVO) as well as VistaPrint (NASDAQ: VPRT).

Web Analytics:

"With online advertising, e-commerce, and other Internet businesses becoming increasingly sophisticated," notes Martin, "and with ever-larger dollars at stake, businesses are spending big bucks to track the behaviors of their website visitors, the efficiency of their marketing dollars, and to see how the online channel relates to their other markets."

One early big winner, he notes is Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR), which he says, "has grabbed the lead in this nascent market." Another beneficiary of this trend is the number-two player in the industry, WebSideStory (NASDAQ: WSSI). He adds, "We believe that the rising tide of web analytics is going to benefit more than just Omniture, and have also added WebSideStory to our buy list."

Steven Halpern is the editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, a free daily website which features the latest stock picks from the nation's leading financial newsletters.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 05:14 AM

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