the aden forecast posts
FeedPosted Jan 6th 2009 12:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Mutual funds, ETF Investing, Commodities, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2009
This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.
Pamela Aden, in her industry-leading The Aden Forecast expects a rebound for gold-mining stocks. What's her favorite way to play this sector? Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX).
"Most markets fell sharply in 2008 as the financial crisis intensified. Gold shares were especially hard hit as gold and the stock market both declined, increasing the downward pressure on these stocks.
"Currently, all of these markets are bombed out and extremely oversold. This means that stocks and gold are poised to move higher, and gold stocks will indeed benefit on both counts.
"Demand for physical gold has been incredibly strong in the last quarter as prices fell during the credit crisis squeeze. You'll remember that gold, like most assets, was sold during the deleveraging when selling was rampant.
Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)
Posted Jan 28th 2008 2:47PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Yamana Gold (AUY), Goldcorp Inc (GG)
"Will there be a recession or not?" asks Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. In The Aden Forecast they note, "The scales are now tipping to inflation," which they view as bullish for gold and silver.
"Sure, the economy will probably slow down in the months ahead and stagflation is also a likelihood. That is, slower economic growth combined with inflation.
"The Fed and the world's largest central banks are working together in a massive, historical concerted intervention to provide all the money and liquidity that's globally needed to keep things rolling along. Money supply, for instance, is soaring at a 16% growth rate, the most in 47 years.
"The latest producer price figure strongly supported our view since it was the highest in 34 years, showing inflation running at a 38% annualized rate. Since producer prices lead consumer prices, this is a huge red flag that big inflation is coming.
"The new record high in the gold price is telling us the same thing, and so are the record highs in oil and the commodity markets. In other words, if a serious recession were coming, gold and commodities would not be soaring.
"Gold is an inflation barometer and the action in this market alone is signaling that inflation will very likely dominate the economic scene in 2008. Inflation is bad for bond prices. It usually means higher interest rates and this time is not an exception.
Continue reading The Adens: Best bets in gold & silver
Posted Dec 28th 2007 10:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Brazil, Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"There's no question that this booming growth in the emerging countries has been a huge factor driving the strongest markets," explains Pamela Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast.
"Three billion people are now participating in the global economy who weren't involved before and that's a dramatic force.
"As these countries build their infrastructure, demand for raw materials has soared. Again, this mega-trend is poised to continue, along with strong growth.
"My favorite conservative way to play this trend is with the Materials Select SPDR (ASE: XLB), which moves with the raw materials sector. Instead of picking individual stocks, this provides a good way to generally profit from what's happening globally.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: ETF favorites with Materials (XLB) and Brazil (EWZ)
Posted Dec 21st 2007 1:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"The commodity markets have been rising strongly in recent years, propelled by growing demand," says Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast.
"The ongoing boom in China and other emerging markets has been driving these markets higher and there's no sign this will end any time soon. This has consistently placed commodity-related stocks like energy, natural resource and precious metals into the top performing stock category. The same will likely apply in 2008.
"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 for investors to take advantage of the rise in precious metals is by buying the StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund. Since gold's rise still appears to be in its early phase, it should do well in the year ahead based on demand alone.
"The same is also true of energy. China's demand has been a primary factor driving the oil price higher. With the Olympics coming to China this Summer, this demand is unlikely to diminish. A good way to benefit is to buy the Energy Select SPDR (ASE: XLE), my favorite speculative ideas for 2008."
Posted Nov 10th 2007 4:10PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, , , Commodities, Stocks to Buy
This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".
"Gold's recent move to a new highs clearly reinforces that the metal's six year bull market is alive and well," say leading resources experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.
In The Aden Forecast, the sisters -- who have accurately forecast the bull market since its start in 2001 -- explain why they believe this upmove is part of a mega-trend that will last for many years to come.
"As the dollar falls further, gold will continue to head higher. And the unprecedented trade deficit nearly guarantees that the dollar will continue to slide. Lower U.S. interest rates reinforce this as well, and again that'll be good for gold.
"Meanwhile, U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the record high oil price means the trade deficit is going to stay huge. It'll also contribute to inflation by keeping upward pressure on consumer prices.
"So in a way, it's a vicious circle that goes something like this: high oil = large trade deficits = a weak dollar and high inflation. Spending and money creation = inflation, which all = higher gold.
Continue reading Top resource ideas: Gold and silver from the Aden sisters
Posted Oct 21st 2007 10:10AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Oil, Stocks to Buy
"The asset boom continues," say Mary Anne and Pamela Aden in The Aden Forecast. "All of the pieces have fallen into place. Following the Fed's move to lower interest rates, a recession is now less likely than it was a month ago, while inflation is now more likely.
"There is really every reason why oil should stay strong. Tensions in the Middle East with the threat of possible supply disruptions alone will keep pressure on the oil price. Then we still have the chance for hurricanes threatening the Gulf of Mexico's platforms, refineries, and pipelines.
"The reason this is so sensitive is because the world is dependent on oil and this demand is growing by leaps. As our good friend Doug Casey notes, The International Energy Agency reported that they see an oil supply crunch within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the West's dependence on the OPEC cartel.
"This is a very real possibility and in spite of temporary dips as we saw with the credit crunch, high oil is here to stay. Our first technical target has been $90, with a further move to $100 after that.
For new energy positions, the Aden sisters recommend Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO), and Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG). For investors who want a diversified portfolio of energy holdings, they recommend the Energy Select SPDR (AMEX: XLE) and the iShares S&P Global Energy Fund (NYSE: IXC).
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment commentary and favorite stocks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Jul 25th 2007 12:04PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: China, Newsletters, BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (BHP), Stocks to Buy
If you could buy only one commodity stock, what should it be? Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, long-standing experts in the natural resources sector, think that one stock should be BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).
The editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "The hot Asian markets are keeping demand strong for commodities. Indeed, the commodity move has been gearing up, one by one. Some markets will be stronger than others at times, but they are all in a major rise with demand being the driving force, which makes this mega move even more powerful."
The advisors continue, "China and Asia in general have been booming for many years now. The slowing economy in the U.S. caused concern that the fiery growth in Asia would cool down. It certainly could with time, but so far there are no signs of this at all."
Meanwhile, they notes, demand for raw materials remains and 2007 may end up seeing China's economy expand at the fastest pace in 12 years. To benefit from this trend, the sisters says, "BHP Billiton has long been one of our favorites because it's the best way to stay invested in the whole raw materials sector."
They notes that Billiton is the world's largest mining organization, stating, "It's a leader in steel making, it's the world's third largest producer of copper and nickel, second largest exporter of coal, fourth largest producer of uranium... and the list goes on." They conclude, "So if you have to buy just one natural resource company, let it be BHP."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.
Posted Mar 2nd 2007 11:45AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: India, China, Russia, Newsletters, ,
With gold turning down from its recent highs, some have questioned whether the 6-year bull market in metals may be ending. According to Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, the evidence points to the opposite conclusion. Indeed, they note, "Gold and silver have everything going for them and their rises have a lot further to go."
Here, the resource experts and co-editors of The Aden Forecast explain the six key factors they see that are pointing to higher metals prices.
The first two reasons are spending and money. They explain, "The world is swimming in money and that's the fuel that's been driving money assets and commodity prices up. But the magnitude of what's currently happening has never been seen before in world history."
The Adens points out that the U.S. is the world's largest debtor nation and "the government keeps spending money it doesn't have."
Since the government doesn't want to cut spending or raise taxes to reduce its debt, they note, "It simply produces money to cover its expenses, which is what governments throughout history have always done, and this amount is also huge."
In fact, in just over the past year, they observe, the amount of paper dollars that've been created is equal to half the value of all the gold that's ever been produced worldwide over the past 2,000 years, which is about $2 trillion. And it's not just the U.S. "Other countries are pumping out money like mad too. In Europe, for instance, money has been growing at the fastest rate in 17 years."
Continue reading The six reasons to own gold and silver