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Oil drilling: 'Ludicrous selling; terrific values'

"Prices for energy stocks, including the drillers, are bombed-out and should be aggressively accumulated now," says resource expert Eric Roseman.

Here, the editor of The Commodity Trend Alert explains, "The absolute worst thing we can do is sell now." Here's his outlook on energy and drilling and a trio of buys.

"The pain felt by commodity bulls should abate shortly; this mind-blowing expansion of credit will ultimately fuel inflation to much higher levels. Eventually, long-term interest rates will rise sharply in the United States as the government grows hungrier to finance its out-of-control spending habits.

"What we're seeing now is a market that has gone from being obsessed with inflation just two months ago to one now worried about rapid deflation or an environment of declining prices. Combined with bad economic news overseas, the U.S. dollar has seen a violent reversal exacerbating the plunge in raw materials. It's been a brutal sell-off and the worst decline I've seen since mid-2006.

Continue reading Oil drilling: 'Ludicrous selling; terrific values'

Gushing gains: Income and growth at Kinder Morgan (KMP)

"Despite sharp intermediate setbacks, the bull market in energy is far from over," says Martin Weiss, editor of the Safe Money Report. Here, he looks at Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP).

"Earlier, there was some concern that a U.S. recession would dampen worldwide demand for oil, and that could still happen. But right now, the rapidly increasing consumption of crude oil by emerging markets is actually exceeding any declines in industrial nations.

"Kinder Morgan is an energy partnership that transports more than 2 million barrels of energy products every day - gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas liquids and more. It has two additional profit centers: Mammoth oil and gas storage facilities and a business supplying carbon dioxide, which is used to boost production from aging oilfields.

"All three of these businesses can be extremely lucrative in a rising oil market like this one. That's how KMP generated a record profit of $347 million in the first quarter - a big swing from a year-earlier loss of
$150 million.

"Partnerships like Kinder pay out quarterly dividends to 'unit holders' - the equivalent of shareholders in traditional public corporations. And KMP's latest payout is 96 cents per unit, up from 92 cents in the prior quarter and 83 cents a year earlier. The indicated yield is a hefty 6.5%.

"As much as we like KMP, we recognize that energy shares may be extended and could pull back in the near term. So here's what we suggest you do: Buy a half-position in KMP this month. Then hold back an equivalent amount of cash earmarked for a possible second bite at the apple later."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Best Stocks for 2008: Drilling for value with Transocean (RIG)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 is Transocean (NYSE: RIG)," says resources expert Curtis Hesler, editor of Professional Timing Service.

"Long after the last field is discovered -- and probably after the last oil well runs dry -- treasure hunters will continue to drill for oil. The best potential will be offshore.

"Transocean, the world's foremost deep water driller, recently merged with Global Santa Fe, the world's principal shallow water driller. The combination resulted in a new company retaining the name Transocean.

"With crude oil hitting new highs, rig rental rates will continue to skyrocket in a market with a chronic shortage of rigs to hire. Additionally, there are simply some drilling jobs -- especially offshore -- that no one else is qualified to tackle.

"The new Transocean is unique. It is in a business with virtually no ease of entry, and it is on a strong growth path. If I were to buy one stock without regard to price for a long-term portfolio, it would be Transocean. It is now THE powerhouse in offshore drilling."

VmWare (VMW) vs. EMC (EMC): An investor debate

"VmWare (NYSE: VMW) or EMC (NYSE: EMC): which is the better buy?" asks contrarian Joseph Hargett.

The analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research suggests, "The debate is likely to continue for quite a while, as more conservative investors back the tried and true success of EMC, while speculators continue to tout the potential for VMW."

"Both sides were recently dealt winning hands, as VMware -- one of the most successful IPOs this year -- bested analyst earnings forecasts by 6 cents per share, while EMC matched expectations but provided strong guidance for the coming quarters.

"Following the IPO of VmWare, EMC shares took a bit of a breather from their run higher, only to resume their uptrend once buyers came back into the market in late September. As such, EMC recovered in fine fashion and continues to set new multi-year highs.

Continue reading VmWare (VMW) vs. EMC (EMC): An investor debate

Nanotech favorites: 'Big' potential in 'small' ideas

A trio of emerging growth advisors see large potential gains from the "smallest" of ideas – nanotechnology. This broad field involves the study and manipulation of matter at an atomic level.

In The Forbes/Wolfe Emerging Tech Report, Josh Wolfe says, "One way for individual investors to gain exposure to nanotech is to invest in publicly traded investment firms making private VC-like investments such as Harris & Harris (NASDAQ: TINY) and Arrowhead Research (NASDAQ: ARWR)."

Wolfe explains, "Arrowhead and Harris & Harris have both grown about 46% annually since 2002 and both market caps are around $250 million. Arrowhead tends to invest in really early stage companies and TINY tends to invest in syndicates of other top venture capital funds."

The advisor continues, "TINY offers a neat way to slip into its private industry deals. I know these guys first hand and the kinds of bets they're making are heavily skewed to the upside. They might lose 100% of any investment on the downside - but they're swinging for 500% or more on the upside."

Continue reading Nanotech favorites: 'Big' potential in 'small' ideas

Six stocks for a fee-free starter portfolio

Chuck Carlson is the newsletter industry leader in DRIPs, or dividend reinvestment plans. Not surprisingly, then, his newsletter is called The DRIP Investor.

For those unfamiliar with these programs, DRIPs are dividend reinvestment plans, which are set up by companies to make it easier and more cost-effective for individual investors to buy and accumulate long-term positions by reinvesting dividends back into additional shares.

Usually, the commissions and other related costs of DRIPs are low, and in some cases, free. Says Carlson, "All things equal, a DRIP with no fees is better than one that charges fees."

He continues, "To be sure, I'm not suggesting investors should automatically discard a DRIP because it charges fees. Still, fees erode investment returns, so taking fees into account in your selection process makes sense."

To help investors find the most cost-effective way of building portfolios, the advisor has conducted a review of "fee-free" plans. Using a proprietary system that ranks 5,000 stocks based on over 100 metrics, he has developed a "starter portfolio" for those with limited investment funds. Such a starter portfolio, he notes, could be developed with as little as $1,000 to start.

He notes, "If I were constructing a reasonably diversified starter portfolio of six "fee-free" stocks, I would focus on the following issues:

Continue reading Six stocks for a fee-free starter portfolio

eBay: A 'high class, high cash flow' buy

Bill Martin – well-known for his role as founder of the Raging Bull website – now shares his trading and investment advice in his always-intriguing FindProfit newsletter.

And while noting that his latest buy "strays a bit from our usual small-to mid-cap focus," he is nevertheless willing to "step up and buy web giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY)."

After watching EBAY for years, he says, "we believe that the stock now represents an attractive purchase for long-term investors."

Ne notes that the stock began underperforming in 2005 as growth in its core marketplace business slowed and Google gained operating steam. Meanwhile, he says, the stock is now over 20% below its 52-week high and equal to the levels it traded at in early 2004.

In his view, EBAY is now an "attractive growth at a reasonable price stock." He forecasts that the company should generate nearly $2 billion in free cash flow in 2007 despite, he notes, high levels of capital expenditures.

The advisor notes, "To us, EBAY increasingly looks like the kind of high-class company that Warren Buffett loves: it has a strong brand and franchise, it generates substantial returns on equity, it is positioned to grow for as far as the eye can see, and it is in a position to reinvest its cash flows at high rates of return."

Continue reading eBay: A 'high class, high cash flow' buy

Oil expert dances the 'contango'

You won't see the contango on Dancing with the Stars; rather its a term used in the futures market to describe the difference in value when the price of a commodity for future deliver is higher than its spot price.

It's also the reason why resource expert Ivan Martchev thinks the US Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) is an excellent short-term trading vehicle but a "terrible" long term investment.

The editor of The Vital Resource Investor explains, "Geopolitical events going on in the Middle East are bullish for oil prices but not necessarily bullish for oil stocks. How come? An attack-driven spike in oil to new highs (proportionately more so the longer the conflict) would likely slow a slowing economy even more."

As a result, he notes, investors should not ncessarily expect to see quick gains in oil stocks if the oil price spikes. He notes, "In conflict-driven spikes that are presumed to be temporary, oil stocks in the past have tended to divorce themselves from the price of oil."

Rather, to play a short-term spike in oil price, the advisor prefers the US Oil exchange-traded fund. As noted at the start of this post, he explains, "USO is a terrible buy-and-hold idea because of the contango in oil futures."

Continue reading Oil expert dances the 'contango'

Former Disney exec bets on Opsware

Bill Martin, editor of FindProfit, looks at IT automation software maker Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW) – and a "high profile" insider buy in the stock from former Disney (NYSE: DIS) exec, Michael Ovitz.

Martin notes, "Michael Ovitz, a director at the company, a longtime Hollywood power broker, and the one-time president of Disney, picked up 58K shares at $6.40 on March 14th, increasing his holdings to 941,300 shares."

The advisor points out that the purchase occured after the stock hit a 52-week low following its recent earnings report.

And this wasn't the first time Ovitz went into the market to buy shares; Martin notes that it was the seventh time since April 2004 that Ovitz has purchased shares of OPSW. This latest buy, he observes, was Ovitz's first purchase since June 2006.

Overall, he notes, Ovitz has bought 605,000 shares since May 2005, at an average price of $5.86, investing approximately $3.6M.

Martin says, "Ovitz has a history of well-timed buys at OPSW. He has managed to get in at favorable prices, and the stock has traded higher in the months following each of his previous six buys."

Like Ovitz, Bill martin has bought shares of Opsware on several occasions, He has traded the stock three times in his model portfolio. Now, following Ovitz's latest buy, he has decied to add the stock back to his own portfolio.

He states, "I would now argue that OPSW is one of the best growth stories in software today. While still not cheap, we believe the stock will grow into its valuation. TWe consider it a high-growth company with strong upside potential. he latest purchase buy Ovitz only adds to our conviction that the stock is a buy at current levels."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Input/Output: A 'seismic' opportunity

Kenneth Reid notes in its most recent earnings call, Schlumberger cited seismic services are the most rapidly growing segment in its business. To play this trend, the editor of The Spear Security Industry Analyst focuses on a company that specializes in the sector -- Input/Output (NYSE: IO).

He explains, "Seismic surveys shoot sound waves into the earth or seabed and analyze the reflections to locate the oil and gas reserves below.

The company was founded in 1968 but according to Reid, has been tranforming itself in recent years to become a provider of a full range of seismic imaging products and services.

Its product lines now includes advanced seismic acquisition equipment, along with the software, data processing services and data libraries necessary for modern land and deep-sea oil and gas exploration.

And while the company sells products for traditional 2D and 3D surveys, Reid is particularly impressed with the company's move into sophisticated time-lapse (4D) and full-wave imaging. Using a grid of more than a thousand sensors, the system produces high definition images of rock structures, natural fractures and the fluids in underground reservoirs."

He notes that the technology is already in demand. I/O sold $60 million worth to the national oil company of India and has an even larger project underway with Chinese energy firm Sinopec, he explains. He also notes that over the last year, I/O worked with British Petroleum in Wyoming and a major project for Apache is just starting month in Texas.

He adds, "This is an advanced technology that has yet to be fully deployed and it is the reason we think I/O has a particularly bright future."

Beyond the technology itself, he likes the company's growing global market. He notes that the Houston firm's footprint now includes offices Canada, Latin America, Europe, China, Russia, Africa and the Middle East.

He concludes, "We think I/O will reward investors over the balance of 2007 and beyond."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

VoIP boosts bandwidth bets

Despite the difficulties faced by Vonage (NYSE: VG), the future for VoIP -- Voice over Internet Protocol -- remains attractive to growth-oriented advisors. Jim Oberweis Jr. notes, "VoIP is finally gaining traction -- and people are now getting rid of their phone lines in droves, as the quality of VoIP has dramatically improved."

Indeed, the money manager and editor of The Oberweis Report notes, "At my home, we've replaced our regular phone service with a VoIP connection and I find it virtually indistinguishable from traditional land-line connections."

For those unfamiliar with the technology, he explains, "With VoIP, your voice is converted into a digital signal that travels over the internet. The price is right -- around $35 bucks a month -- for unlimited calls around the world."

Importantly, he does not see the upside opportunity among telephony service providers. Rather, he sees the potential among companies that make the equipment that enables VoIP networks to operate.

He notes, "VoIP is causing an exponential increase in demand for bandwidth." And that, he notes, takes lots of investment and equipment. It represents, he suggests, "the renaissance of the telecommunications equipment industry after six long years in the doldrums." So what companies will benefit from this renaissance?

Continue reading VoIP boosts bandwidth bets

Jovine: It's time to buy Time Warner

Down from its 2000 high of nearly $100 a share to $20 in recent trading, Jason Jovine believes the time has come for long-term buy and hold investors to buy Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE:TWX).

The editor of The Tycoon Report asks, "This stock went down over 80% in the last seven years! What in the world happened?"

One primary factor was the market itself. Indeed, we all remember the bear market phase beginning in 2000. Another factor was its sector. Jovine notes, "Anything related to technology had led the market to its peak in the 1990's, and anything related to technology from 2000 on was to get severely punished regardless of the company or its earnings."

In addition, the advisor points to the merger with AOL as part of the problem. "This merger was announced near the stock's high," he explains. "After that, of course, we had the terrorist attacks on 9/11 and the accounting scandals which later followed."

Now, however, he sees the company's problems as being in the past. He says, "I believe that the stock has been punished enough and is now a very good buy."

He notes, "Overall revenues last year rose by over 4%. In their family of companies -- including AOL, HBO, Time Warner Cable, Turner Broadcasting System, New Line Cinema, Warner Bros. Entertainment, and Time Inc. -- the growth mainly came from Time Warner Cable and their networks, where revenues increased 34% and 7% respectively."

Meanwhile, he points to the stock's price to earnings ratio at about 12.5. He says, "Just as a point of comparison, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSK) has a p/e of about 32. In other words, you are paying a lot more for the earnings of Comcast than you are for Time Warner's. I know that they do not have the same exact business models, but I still believe that Time Warner is undervalued at this price, and the comparison is still valid."

As to future prospects, he adds, "I think that Time Warner will either exceed or come in on the high end of their earnings projections when their next earnings announcement comes out in early May; stay tuned."

The stock, he concludes, is best suited for those with a long-term horizon. He says, "In my view, investors should buy the stock and hold it. This is an investment."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

NetEase: An Internet play in China

"There are still many years of spectacular growth ahead for China, which should culminate with the Olympics," notes Charles Payne, editor of the top-tier Wall Street Strategies newsletter. Payne is also well known from his weekly appearances on FOX TV's Bulls & Bears and FOX and Friends.

And while he cautions, "You definitely want to be out of that market when the trumpet begins playing the Olympic theme," he currently highlights select opportunities, such as his latest recommendation, NetEase.com (NASDAQ: NTES).

The company -- headquartered in Beijin -- was founded in 1997. Payne notes, "Netease operates an interactive online and wireless community in China, providing Chinese language content and services through its online games, wireless value-added services, and Internet portals."

The firm's online games business, he notes, focuses on massively multiplayer online role-playing games. In order to participate in these online games, users purchase prepaid point cards which he notes are are sold in China through wholesalers, Internet cafes, software stores, supermarkets, bookstores, newspaper stands, and convenience stores.

Continue reading NetEase: An Internet play in China

Just do it: Run with Nike

When looking for growth, Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecast, notes that he avoids speculative and expensive "hypergrowth" stories and prefers to focus on steady growers with reasonable valuations and the ability to exceed expectations."

Among his current favorite growth ideas is Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE). He explains, "The company hopes to increase its annual sales to $23 billion by fiscal 2011 ending May, up from $15 billion in fiscal 2006, as part of a five-year growth strategy announced in February."

He notes that the firm's plans include expanding its retail presence with the addition of 100 new company stores worldwide over the next three years, half in the U.S.

In addition, the company is expected to divide the Nike brand into six categories -- soccer, basketball, running, men's training, women's fitness, and sports culture -- to better target consumers. Moroney says, "Management expects to reach its sales growth target without the help of new acquisitions."

Continue reading Just do it: Run with Nike

Gold: Hesler's 'quintessential hard asset'

An estimated 85% of financial success is being invested in the correct asset class, estimates Curtis Hesler, who is confident that the correct asset class for investors today is hard assets.

The editor of The Professional Timing Service uses several proprietary models to determine whether one should be in financial assets or real assets. One of these models is his Annual Asset Allocation Model.

He explains, "Its advice is simple as it will only point us in one of two directions -- financial (paper) assets or real (tangible) assets. The purpose of the model is to tell us which of these two assets offers the best potential reward for the lowest risk."

In recent months, the model has pointed toward real assets, suggesting that the risk of holding paper assets has been high. Hesler notes, "Although trading profits can be had in stocks, financial assets under these circumstances can turn very bad, very quickly -- as the recent market debacle illustrated."

Continue reading Gold: Hesler's 'quintessential hard asset'

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 05:34 PM

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