Down from its 2000 high of nearly $100 a share to $20 in recent trading, Jason Jovine believes the time has come for long-term buy and hold investors to buy Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE:TWX).
The editor of The Tycoon Report asks, "This stock went down over 80% in the last seven years! What in the world happened?"
One primary factor was the market itself. Indeed, we all remember the bear market phase beginning in 2000. Another factor was its sector. Jovine notes, "Anything related to technology had led the market to its peak in the 1990's, and anything related to technology from 2000 on was to get severely punished regardless of the company or its earnings."
In addition, the advisor points to the merger with AOL as part of the problem. "This merger was announced near the stock's high," he explains. "After that, of course, we had the terrorist attacks on 9/11 and the accounting scandals which later followed."
Now, however, he sees the company's problems as being in the past. He says, "I believe that the stock has been punished enough and is now a very good buy."
He notes, "Overall revenues last year rose by over 4%. In their family of companies -- including AOL, HBO, Time Warner Cable, Turner Broadcasting System, New Line Cinema, Warner Bros. Entertainment, and Time Inc. -- the growth mainly came from Time Warner Cable and their networks, where revenues increased 34% and 7% respectively."
Meanwhile, he points to the stock's price to earnings ratio at about 12.5. He says, "Just as a point of comparison, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSK) has a p/e of about 32. In other words, you are paying a lot more for the earnings of Comcast than you are for Time Warner's. I know that they do not have the same exact business models, but I still believe that Time Warner is undervalued at this price, and the comparison is still valid."
As to future prospects, he adds, "I think that Time Warner will either exceed or come in on the high end of their earnings projections when their next earnings announcement comes out in early May; stay tuned."
The stock, he concludes, is best suited for those with a long-term horizon. He says, "In my view, investors should buy the stock and hold it. This is an investment."
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