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Option update: National Oilwell Varco (NOV) volatility & share price Up

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) volatility elevated as NOV at record high on oil rally.

NOV, a worldwide provider of equipment a components used in oil and gas drilling production operations, closed at record high of $136.94. WTI Crude oil futures are down 0.03% at $78.21 a barrel according to Bloomberg. NOV overall option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) volatility at 30 into third quarter business outlook.

TXN closed at $35.72. ThinkEquity says that "TXN provided an in-line mid-quarter update." ThinkEquity goes on to say, "we view this as mildly disappointing given the strong environment for PCs, consumer, and high performance analog, and investor expectations for an in-line to slightly better outlook." TXN September option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

How big a deal is Dell's (DELL) restatement?

It's a story that might have gotten more attention a few years ago, but now Wall Street has become somewhat complacent about accounting/governance issues.

Shares of Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) actually closed up after the company disclosed that it would be restating results for 2003 to Q1 2007 because of various accounting issues, manipulation of numbers at the request of senior executives to meet financial targets.

Some analysts don't care. According to MarketWatch, "Eric Ross, an analyst with ThinkEquity Partners, called the restatement 'meaningless' due to the amounts involved in the restatement periods."

In a way he's right. If all that investors should care about is ROE, EBITDA, and EPS, it doesn't matter. It's not material. But when investing for the long term, we're putting a lot of faith in management, and the fact that company executives were committing fraud ("seeking adjustments so that quarterly performance objectives could be met" = fraud) over a period of four years should hardly be construed as "meaningless."

'Finding The Next Starbucks': A must-read

It is refreshing to any reader when the author of a book has walked the walk and talked the talk. Well, this is the case with Michael Moe's new book Finding the Next Starbucks. Michael Moe was among the very first analysts to discover the growth and magic of Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX). Mike was a young analyst visiting companies up in Seattle, and after a long week, his last meeting was with the fledgling, up start company named after a Moby Dick character. Mike nearly canceled the meeting to catch an earlier plane home. The readers of Mike's new book should be grateful he did not. Mike was involved with Starbucks when it had a market value of barely $200 million: today Starbucks' market capitalization is $20 billion.

Finding the Next Starbucks is a must read for any level investor, new to experienced. Michael Moe brings his more than 20+ years of investment banking and analytical experience and skills to life. Michael is passionate about growth investing and the power of growth. I said he has walked the walk and talked the talk: Michael is Chairman, Founder and CEO of ThinkEquity Partners headquartered in San Francisco. ThinkEquity has recently merged with British firm Panmure Gordon to establish the entity into a global player.

Continue reading 'Finding The Next Starbucks': A must-read

Research Analysts: Some great and some lousy

I have been involved in the investment industry for almost 29 years. The first 13 I spent with Dean Witter Reynolds (now Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)) and the last 16 years as a senior partner with two investment banking-research boutique firms. I have worked with over 150 stock research analysts just on the sell-side and another 200 plus on the buy side. Categorically, the title research analyst does not make an analyst a rocket scientist. There are a few myths that need to be explored and more importantly, explained.

There are two and only two types of analysts in the stock research world. 1) those that "get it" and are ahead of their particular industry and can pretty accurately predict what is "going to happen" within the sector they follow, and 2) analysts that are strictly reporters of the news affecting their sectors and do not think outside the box.

Case in point: Stewart Barry of ThinkEquity Partners (my alma mater) has been absolutely brilliant in the internet services sector. Forward thinking, cutting edge research and the ability to separate the news from the noise. Stewart nailed the strong possibilities of Aquantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) and 24/7 Real Media (NASDAQ: TFSM) being acquired. Both are getting acquired. What Stewart nailed wasn't the rumor mill about these two -- he was dead-right on the fundamental issues affecting Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and how AQNT, TFSM, and DoubleClick could fill those needs. Stewart Barry is an all-star analyst because he is ahead of the curve and ahead of his peer group. Stewart has reiterated his buy rating on ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) not because it may be acquired, but because the basic fundamentals are superior and the company's growth rate is accelerating.

Continue reading Research Analysts: Some great and some lousy

This week's rumor round-up: a bidder found for Wendy's?

Another week, another run through the rumor mill. And, as usual, it all surrounds possible takeovers/buyouts.

WENDY'S INTERNATIONAL INC (NYSE: WEN)

Up first is Wendy's, because since the company is exploring strategic alternatives, and shareholder Highfields Capital Management is pushing for a sale, the idea of a suitor isn't that farfetched. The rumor is that this mystery suitor has bid for the company. Will this Biggie-size Wendy's stock price? Only time will tell.

ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND COMPANY (NYSE: ADM)

And in the earlier stages of the M&A cycle, the rumor with Archer Daniels Midland is that the company has hired a strategic adviser. This wouldn't be that mind-blowing, considering it follows an EPS miss when the company reported on May 1, and a downgrade by ThinkEquity on May 2 on margin weakness.

BEA SYSTEMS INC (NASDAQ: BEAS)

File this under "the boy that cried wolf." BEA Systems has long been the subject of takeover talk, and it has continued this week. This despite firms such as Bernstein saying a takeover is unlikely as the company's valuation is too high.

Investment bank sells itself

Back in the 1980s and the 1990s, there were four leading investment banks in the tech world (known as the Four Horsemen): Montgomery Securities, Alex.Brown, Hambrecht & Quist and Robertson Stephens.

Of course, these firms no longer independent (or alive). However, over the past few years, there have been a myriad of players that want to bring back the Old Days.

One is Think Equity Partners.

But, things have not been easy. As a result, the firm is actually selling out – for $62 million – to Panmure Gordon, which is a British investment bank. This is according to a story in the Financial Times.

The play here? Well, it looks like this is a way for Panmure to take US companies and list them on the popular UK stock market, the AIM. Simply put, the AIM does not have the kind of regulations like Sarbanes-Oxley.

Interestingly enough, a boutique investment bank -- JMP Group Inc. – recently filed to go public (I wrote about this in a recent piece in BloggingStocks).

This may really be a way to conjure-up interest for possible buyout. And, given the deal for Think Equity Partners, it does look like a good bet is to find an offshore partner.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Texas Instruments minority report

The folks at ThinkEquity believe that Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) is in for better days. They slapped an "accumulate" on the shares after carrying them as a "sell." The reason given was that TI's analog chip business should be getting better. ThinkEquity admits that the TI cell phone chip business is going to be rough for a long time. But, the research firm's sources say that the analog chip pick-up is broad and sustained. They put a new price target of $30 on the stock. It already trades above $28.

Almost any other research firm on Wall Street with an opinion on TI is worried about the stock. Stifel Nicolaus thinks TI's gross margins are down. Cathay Financial thinks that weakness in handset chips is continuing into 2007. And, Lehman Bros. has cut its earnings estimates for the big chip firm. Part of Lehman's analysis is that the analog business at TI is still "challenging."

Someone is right here and someone is wrong.

TI has two strikes on it. One is that it competes with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) in the handset chip market. QCOM has seen better days, but it has formidable market share in the handset market. In addition to that, almost no one thinks that handset giants Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Motorola (NYSE:MOT) will do well in 2007. Margins are dropping because the demand for phones tends to be in emerging markets where cheap is better. Cheaper phones, cheaper chips.

Analog may do OK for TI. But, it can't beat the devil. The handset market is in for some rough quarters.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Apple after the bell 9/25/06: increasing margins, bullish analysts drive stock up

Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ended the day at $75.75, a $2.75 rise or 3.77% jump in the price of its stock. ThinkEquity Partners LLC analyst Jonathan Hoopes raised his estimate of the computer manufacturers target price to $100 within the next year. He's thinking that higher margins and the newest operating system's strengths will drive the price up.

Certainly his impression that Apple is working on its margins seems born out by this article in TG Daily that suggest the profit margin for Apple iPod Nanos are coming down, which is good news for Apple's profits.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 09:20 PM

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