THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), arch competitor of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), closed under $10 per share on Monday; $9.90 to be exact. It hit a new 52-week low of $9.30 intraday. I've got to admit, THQ under $10 a share sparks my interest.
I also must concede that my interest might be a bit on the irrational side to some degree. After all, I was a big fan of THQ during the time oh so long ago when all its cylinders were firing and the stock was a pretty cool investment. Now that it's hit the magical spectrum of single-digit, does that event alone changes things on a fundamental level? Am I just looking for a reason to buy a stock I once liked and praised?
As of late, problems have befallen THQ. Questions about the quality of its pipeline and delays of key video-game product have plagued the publisher. Indeed, THQ was a weakening company and a weak stock. Why invest in THQ when Activision Blizzard exists? There's definitely sound logic to such thinking. However, THQ is around book value at $10 per share. And the fact that THQ has some cool intellectual properties at its disposal (Destroy All Humans!, Saint's Row, etc.), as well as a cool licensing partner in Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and its Nickelodeon characters, means you've got to figure that the company might start becoming a value at some point.
You honestly have to wonder what Sumner Redstone, the chairman of both Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and CBS (NYSE: CBS), thinks about Midway Games (NYSE: MWY). The guy has a huge investment in the struggling software publisher. He owns something like 87% of the company's shares. He controls Midway. I mean, does he look at the performance of this business? Does it make him angry? Confused?
Anyway, Midway reported earnings for the second quarter earlier in the week, and as usual, they weren't the stuff of Wall Street dreams (see more earnings news), Revenues declined 26% to $23.4 million. The publisher lost $0.29 per diluted share on an adjusted basis. Last year at this time the loss was $0.12 per diluted share on an adjusted basis. That's horrible. For Q3, management expects an adjusted loss of $0.27 per diluted share. Midway is excited about its upcoming Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe title, to be released in time for the holidays. I'm not excited. Will the game be enough to propel the stock, which closed on Wednesday at a bargain price of $2.66, higher? I use the phrase "bargain price" sarcastically, of course.
I've often wondered about the Midway dilemma. What can this company possibly do to improve itself? Should Redstone order management to look for better synergies between it and the Viacom/CBS content library and/or platforms? Midway has worked with MTV before on promoting a few titles. It's too bad that Midway doesn't have access to some of the popular characters of the Nickelodeon channel. THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) currently has that license. I'd have to believe that good ole SpongeBob SquarePants would have helped things out.
Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVID) reported preliminary Q1 earnings earlier in the week, and from a shareholder's perspective, they were great. These results are for Activision itself, and do not take into account the effect of the merger with Vivendi Games.
OK, consider the following. Management had previously thought that Q1 would see revenues of about $500 million. The game publisher should actually deliver around $650 million on the top line. And in terms of earnings per diluted share, Activision should do at least $0.16. Previously, the call was for $0.04 per diluted share. Activision obliterated its own projections, and one has to wonder when the momentum is going to stop.
I hope it never does, of course, since I own shares of the company. Competitors such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) are doing everything they can to keep up. Their stocks certainly aren't near 52-week highs, and in the case of EA, a takeover of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) seems to be the biggest priority in terms of counteracting the Activision Blizzard juggernaut. Now, in terms of drivers for the quarter, Activision benefited from Guitar Hero and, believe it or not, a game based on DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. In fact, the Panda title was mentioned first in terms of drivers. This shows that, even though Activision has some awesome intellectual properties of its own, it still knows how to derive value from investments in licensed properties.
At least one of my stocks is doing pretty well in this terrible, depressing market environment. Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 on Tuesday. It closed a little below that, but it was a great, high-volume day for the stock, one that saw the shares rise almost 5%.
Yes, with the Dow Jones index shedding 100 points, with every other stock in my portfolio in the red, including MFA (NYSE: MFA), which closed down to $6.66 -- the number of the beast, my friends -- Activision not only held its own, but it powered higher. Perhaps it's due to the new Guitar Hero game coming out for the DS. Perhaps there's a new wave of excitement over the merger now that investors are receiving their documents (I just got mine the other day, a big book full of wonderful information about the Activision/Vivendi agreement). No matter, though, it was Activision's day, since competitors Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) were down Tuesday, and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) closed up only four measly pennies.
I love this price action, and I think it might be predicting a prosperous Q4 holiday season for the company, which will eventually be called Activision Blizzard after the merger. I'm also hoping the action indicates that the stock will be reasonably stable during the summer, which I think is going to be rough on the markets as oil and inflation headlines dominate the tape.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) issued Q4 and full-year numbers on Tuesday. The competitor of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported adjusted fourth-quarter revenues of $919 million, which was good for a 50% increase. Earnings per diluted share were $0.09 on an adjusted basis, also representing a 50% jump. For the full year, adjusted revenues jumped 30% to $4 billion and earnings per diluted share rose 36% to $1.06. Not too bad.
EA, according to Briefing.com, also beat Wall Street's expectations by quite a bit. EA was forecast to only break-even on a non-GAAP basis, so the difference was a nice $0.09. In terms of operational cash flow, EA increased the metric by 33% during the fourth quarter, but for the full year, operational cash flow decreased 15%. Ah, such is life, I guess. Nevertheless, EA produced 27 titles that sold over a million units this year -- three more than in the previous year. Fifteen of its titles sold over 2 million units -- five more than the last fiscal period. Titles such as Army of Two and Rock Band, as well as various sports franchises, drove the results.
Things sound pretty good, don't they? EA is definitely a major force on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. But EA has had some challenges during this console cycle, and there is the perception that it needs a major merger to combat the threat posed by the Activision and Vivendi Games transaction. And let's not forget that Activision is on fire all on its own. That's what the whole attempted takeover of Take-Two is all about.
THQ's (NASDAQ: THQI) Q4 results were not good at all. Revenues were up over 8% to $187 million, but the software publisher lost an adjusted $0.37 per diluted share from continuing operations. Last year at this time, THQ generated positive adjusted net income of $0.13 per diluted share from continuing operations. The full fiscal year was no better -- revenues were basically flat at $1 billion. The company lost an adjusted $0.23 per diluted share from continuing operations during the year compared to an adjusted profit of $1.20 per diluted share from continuing operations in 2007.
This publisher is no Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) or Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) right now. Its slate is performing poorly, and the company's stock is likewise in the dumps. But what about the future? A few years back, THQ wasn't a bad investment decision. I have a feeling that THQ will rebound as the current console cycle continues its forward path, especially when further price cuts in hardware make their way to market.
THQ, however, needs to get its slate back on track, and to really go after the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 players. It seems to be doing OK with the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platform in terms of revenue mix. Perhaps the deal struck with DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) for a video game based on the animation company's 2010 feature MasterMind will help.
Nevertheless, there is nothing exciting in the earnings release, nothing that makes me think that THQ is out of the dark woods yet. Again, though, I would expect the publisher's stock to rebound in the future. Question is, how patient will investors be?
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
I really want to turn bullish on Midway Games Inc. (NYSE: MWY), but there's no way I can do that right now. The company's stock is below $3 a share, and it's there for a reason. But, let's first look at a couple positives from the software publisher's latest earnings release. Net revenues shot up 170% to $29.9 million in Q1; that beat expectations, according to Briefing.com. And the net loss per share also beat expectations by a penny -- it came in at $0.29 per diluted share on an adjusted analysis.
But, that net loss is worse than the previous year's net loss of $0.20 per diluted share, also adjusted. Like I say, someday I want to report that Midway has turned the corner and is a buy. I simply can't do that, even though I recently bought the publisher's catalog title Rampage: Total Destruction for the Nintendo Gamecube and am having a great time with it -- guess it goes to show that you can't always judge a company's stock by the fact that you enjoy its products. One thing that Midway needs to do is perhaps seek some synergy from Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s MTV and Nickelodeon channels. Sumner Redstone is, after all, the controlling shareholder of Midway. Granted, THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) deals with the Nickelodeon characters at the moment, but in the future, Redstone needs to figure out a way to use his media assets to promote Midway and perhaps funnel some licensing deals to the publisher. MTV is certainly doing well with its own video-game ambitions via Rock Band, which is sold by Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS).
One thing I must point out is that, since my last article about Midway, the stock is up. This was mentioned to me by a reader. So, in objective trading terms, if you went against my opinion, you would have made money, no question. However, I have to stick to my guns and say that I personally wouldn't play the volatility in Midway's shares. Yes, you could luck out with it, maybe Redstone will come along one day and buy out the remaining shares at a big premium (doubtful, at least the big-premium part). I wouldn't want to speculate on such an outcome; I am still content with my Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares as a way to play video-game investing.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) is not casual when it comes to casual gaming. What is casual gaming, you ask? It is a genre of videogaming for people who don't want to learn a bunch of button combos for a complex first-person shooter or don't possess the desire to spend fifty hours winding their way through a vast role-playing universe. And it just might be an important avenue of growth for the videogame industry, since it opens up new markets beyond the hardcore gamer. Publishers such as Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) know that casual-gaming strategies are important these days, as do console makers Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE). Heck, Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) overall strategy is arguably completely casual in nature, considering the appeal of the Wii.
THQ announced the other day that it would buy Elephant Entertainment and enter into a publishing deal with Oberon Media. Both of these companies are purveyors of casual-gaming entertainment and they are meant to broaden the scope of THQ's offerings in this area. Expectations are for casual games to grow significantly over time.
It may be a smart thing for THQ to grow its casual-gaming business, but it needs to focus right now mostly on getting its main pipeline back in order. Recent delays for certain titles, as well as sagging sales of games that were supposed to do well, have caused THQ's stock to fall; in fact, THQ's recent quarter was kind of bad, in my opinion. So, yes, go after the casual market -- but remember the less-than-casual and hardcore players as well, as they are major drivers for the success of a gaming slate.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) can rock its shareholders just as hard as a blood-spitting Gene Simmons at a Kiss concert. And we all know why -- the Guitar Hero franchise is, simply put, one of the most popular videogames out there, and it is available for all the major console systems from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY). It's also a pain in the neck for other publishers such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), since they have to put up with the franchise's dominating power. But guess what, the inevitable has come to pass -- Activision is being accused of patent infringement!
Yes, you can't be very popular, you can't rake in millions and millions of dollars in profit for shareholders and expect to get away unscathed. Gibson Guitar, according to this Associated Press piece, believes Guitar Hero infringes on a patent it holds for a rock-concert simulator. The patent apparently goes back to 1999 and it contains a description for a system that uses a 3-D headset in conjunction with a musical playback. Activision decided to file a suit to get a court decision declaring that it is not infringing on any existing patent.
Midway Games (NYSE: MWY), a competitor of videogame publishers such as Activision (NYSE: ATVI), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO), reported earnings on Thursday for the fourth quarter. They weren't good. Net revenues went down by 20%, and the loss widened to 33 cents per share versus a loss of 2 cents per share in the year-ago period. For the full year, net revenues declined 5%, and the loss widened to $1.07 per share versus a loss of 86 cents per share in 2006. Even on an adjusted basis, the losses were larger than before.
I've been following Midway for a long time, and I have to say that I just don't think the publisher's stock is worth anyone's time right now. Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) all have their new consoles out -- PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii, respectively -- so Midway, if it were executing properly, should have been able to take advantage of them. It hasn't.
I see nothing in the release that indicates a positive catalyst is on the horizon for Midway and/or its stock. It's a cool publisher with some fun games, but I won't be buying its thesis -- if there is one -- anytime soon. I'll stick with my Activision shares, and I'd urge others to look at an EA, or even a THQ, for possible value.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
Steven Spielberg is, let's face it, one of the most creative guys on the planet, and he's been responsible for some of my most treasured memories at the local multiplex -- who didn't love watching Indiana Jones ride off into the sunset at the conclusion of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade or viewing couch-jumping Tom Cruise race through a futuristic setting to prove his innocence in Minority Report? The guy is a genius; he also loves videogames. And Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) has teamed up with him to develop entertainment software in a bid to differentiate its lineup from the competitive likes of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) and Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO).
I just read the press release announcing the game he helped create for the Nintendo Wii. It's due out this summer, and it's called BOOM BLOX. I have to be honest and say that I'm not sure exactly what to expect. It has something to do with puzzle combinations, building block structures up and then knocking them down, crazy characters like monkeys who throw baseballs around for one reason or another, etc. Oh, and there are chickens and haunted places, and there are hundreds of levels. Sounds confusing?
I'm confused, but I'm sure if I do a little Googling, I can figure out what's up with this title. The Nintendo Wii is pretty hot right now, as if I had to tell you, and I think a game with the Spielberg brand may sell well for EA. Spielberg is due to deliver two more games for EA. There's no guarantee they'll move copies just because he's involved in their development, but EA having access to his intellectual artistry certainly can't hurt. The publisher will definitely have to do some savvy marketing to ensure that not-with-it folks like myself know exactly what to expect from this game -- the press release claims I'll be addicted, and who's to say I won't be?
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns Activision and Take-Two, and is looking at a possible buy of Nintendo after this post. Believe it or not, he actually owns the E.T. game for the Atari 2600 (how old-school is that).
Man, I remember loving THQ (NASDAQ: THQI). For a while, the company and stock were doing well; I recall watching it go from $20 a stub to $36 in recent times. But you know the old adage -- what goes up, must -- or, may, at least, when it comes to stocks -- come down. And down THQ came. Its recent quarter shows just how low things have gotten.
In the video game publisher's latest quarter, net revenue increased 7% to about $510 million. Kind of disappointing for a video game concern to post a top-line increase in the single digits for a holiday quarter that is supposed to be in the thick of the new console cycle. After all, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, and the juggernaut known as the Nintendo Wii are all stoking the flames of gamer interest. But the real disappointment can be found in the horrible bottom-line performance. Yes, even though THQ is the home to SpongeBob SquarePants, not even that wily, sweet, pineapple-dwelling creature could offset increased costs and charges related to canceled games (say good-bye to the Juiced and Stuntman franchises) to save THQ from posting a whopping 76% drop in diluted income from continuing operations: 21 cents per share versus 88 cents a year earlier.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, General Motors and Anglo American were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was downgraded to Reduce from Buy at WestLB and to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse following the company's Q3 profit warning.
WestLB downgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Reduce from Hold following Ericsson's profit warning, as they believe Alcatel-Lucent's mobile business will face top-line and margin issues.
Bear Stearns downgraded shares of General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) to Underperform from Peer Perform after learning that benefits from the new union contract will be lower than expected in 2008 and 2009. The broker recommends swapping into Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).
HSBC downgraded shares of Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Anglo to Equal Weight from Overweight also on valuation, as they see better value elsewhere in the sector.
You honestly have to wonder what Sumner Redstone, the chairman of both 
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Fog clearing - maybe. Clear skies - no! GE, JNJ, MRK, PG, RTN, WFC
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A fighting chance for the credit markets.
Should you sell into today's rally? Yes, if you think there are more surprises to come (I do)
