MOST NOTEWORTHY: PFF Bancorp, Ericsson and TAL International Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
B. Riley upgraded shares of PFF Bancorp (NYSE: PFB) to Neutral from Sell on valuation with the stock trading at 11% of the last reported tangible book value of $14.37 at December 31, 2007.
RBC Capital believes Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) will benefit from network builds in North America and Asia. Shares were raised to Outperform from Sector Perform.
Baird upgraded TAL International Group (NYSE: TAL) to Outperform from Neutral based on solid container leasing demand, rising container costs, and more constrained capital conditions.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Deutsche Bank upgraded Telecom Italia (NYSE: TI) to Buy from Hold.
JP Morgan upgraded Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) to Neutral from Underweight.
Goldman raised Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) to Neutral from Sell.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Energy companies, Regulated and Diversified Utilities and Tailsman Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bernstein raised its 2008 oil forecast to $92.30/bbl, up 27%, and 2008 natural gas forecast to $8.30/mcf, up 7%. By 2012, the firm expects oil prices to be around $86/bbl and for gas to be $9.2/mcf. The firm upgraded Apache Corp (NYSE: APA) and XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) to Outperform from Market Perform and EnCana (NYSE: ECA) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Goldman upgraded the Regulated and Diversified Utilities sub-sectors to Attractive from Neutral citing expected economic weakness, positive commodity exposure, and earnings growth. The firm upgraded American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) to Buy from Neutral.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Tailsman Energy (NYSE: TLM) to Buy from Hold ahead of the company's annual meeting as they believe it will announce a new strategy of low risk resource development on existing acreage and that shares will react positively.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: International Paper, Dynavax Tech and Telecom Italia were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded International Paper (NYSE: IP) to Neutral from Overweight and said its purchase of Weyerhaeuser's (NYSE: WY) containerboard business will shift the company's focus back to North America and result in a less attractive product mix given increased OCC exposure.
Merriman downgraded shares of Dynavax Tech (NASDAQ: DVAX) to Neutral from Buy after the company's hepatitis B vaccine was placed on clinical hold.
Merrill cut Telecom Italia (NYSE: TI) to Neutral from buy as they expect stronger competition and regulatory measures to cut prices.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) was downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Buckingham.
ViewPoint Financial (NASDAQ: VPFG) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette.
Bear downgraded Siemens (NYSE: SI) to Peer Perform from Outperform.
Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) revised its quarterly outlook down during an update of its business yesterday. It pointed to its 3G chip business as a reason for the disappointment and indicated that one of its larger customers had cut demand. TI's largest 3G chip customer is Nokia (NYSE: NOK).
Shares in Nokia fell 3.2% in early trading on the news.
While the news may be bad for Nokia, it is worse for Motorola (NYSE: MOT), which was not generally mentioned as part of the TI news. Nokia has a strong balance sheet, is highly profitable, and has 40% of the handset market worldwide. In other words, it can weather a slowdown.
Motorola's share of the global cellphone business is now about 12%, down from 22% two years ago. Its stock trades near a 52-week low, at $8.54. Its cell operation has been for sale for over a month, and there appear to be no likely buyers, perhaps because of its huge losses.
If Nokia is getting a cold, Motorola is getting pneumonia.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: W.W. Grainger, American Express and Microsoft were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Baird downgraded W.W. Grainger Inc (NYSE: GWW) to Neutral from Outperform, citing concerns regarding the the federal lawsuit accusing the company of overcharging the U.S. Government.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect their assumption for a weaker economy.
RBC Capital downgraded Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing Yahoo! Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) rejection of its $31/share bid and a counteroffer of $40/share. The firm expects a deal to get done between $35.00-$40.00 per share, resulting in increased dilution.
Another earnings season crunch rolls along, and among companies reporting next week are Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Here is a quick peek at each of them.
Texas Instruments has met or beat earnings expectations every quarter since the first of 2004. When it reported third-quarter results back in October, its 52 cents per share earnings beat the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by two cents, as well as the actual 45 cents per share in the same period of 2006. For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 52 cents per share again, or $1.80 for the full year, up from $1.69 in 2006.
The company's 49 percent earnings per share growth forecast for the next three to five years is better than the industry average and the S&P 500. The analysts' consensus recommendation is to buy Texas Instruments, though 12 of the 32 analysts rate it a hold. The share price fell to a 52-week low of $28.24 on Friday, from a five-year high of $39.63 last July.
For news that could influence the earnings results, check out BloggingStocks' Texas Instruments coverage.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sears Holding, Reuters Group and Shire Plc were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded shares of Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) to Sell from Neutral as they expect continued share loss and profit pressures in this macro environment.
ABN Amro lowered its rating on Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the credit crisis will impact the company's banking profitability.
Shire Plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill. The firm sees limited upside to 2008 earnings.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Infineon, Intel and AmerisourceBergen were today's noteworthy upgrades:
ABN Amro upgraded Infineon Technologies (NYSE: IFX) to Buy from Hold as they expect the shares to outperform given the more stable currency environment and improving DRAM pricing.
Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) to Overweight from Market Weight citing checks that indicate above seasonal PC demand heading into 2008 driven by emerging markets.
Banc of America upgraded shares of AmerisourceBergen Corp. (NYSE: ABC) to Buy from Neutral as they believe new contract wins for the company's largest PBM customer should help offset soft script volumes in the near-term.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added United Tech (NYSE: UTX) to its Conviction Buy List.
The firm also upgraded Telecom Italia (NYSE: TI) to Neutral from Sell.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Circuit City and Hot Topic were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Societe Generale downgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Hold from Buy after the company lowered its Q4 guidance. Goldman Sachs downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy on the company's lowered Q4 revenue outlook and the growing probability that the wireless infrastructure market will decline again in 2008.
Circuit City (NYSE: CC)'s rating was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, as they believe the company's high cost turnaround will require a strategic partner or acquirer, which may not happen until after 2H08 and this year's holiday season.
Citigroup downgraded shares of Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) to Hold from Buy to reflect their pushed out expectations for an earnings recovery.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns.
Lehman downgraded Telecom Italia (NASDAQ: TI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
Texas Instruments reported sequential revenue growth of 5% for its semiconductor business versus a 17% drop last year. The company is forecasting an increase of 6% for the September quarter, but book-to-bill is only at 1.0, so that will tame investors' expectations. Since announcing the bottom of the semiconductor trough in the first quarter of this year, Texas Instruments is up to $38 from $30. Therefore, most of the easy money has been made.
I'd wait for a consolidation in semiconductor stocks and the market in general before jumping into Texas Instruments. The company is in a great strategic position but will likely be dead money until the fall, as investors will want to wait to see how the U.S. and the global economy is doing for the back-to-school season and, more importantly, the holiday season.
By October, if the consumer hasn't completely rolled over, it will be time to take a look at Texas Instruments.
The IRS is looking at derivatives trades of Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) and Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) to see if trades made on behalf of hedge funds and other clients, including those offshore, were to avoid paying taxes on U.S. stock dividends, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The New York Times reported that Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to receive opening bids today for its Jaguar and Land Rover units. A variety of companies, including private equity firms and possibly other automakers, are expected to bid for the two divisions, said people with direct knowledge of the situation.
Retail shoe store chain Foot Locker Inc (NYSE: FL) is reportedly considering putting itself up for sale again, after disappointing sales by its U.S. shoe stores and its failed attempt to acquire rival Genesco Inc (NYSE: GCO), reported the New York Post.
The Telegraph reported that Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) is examining a deal to invest in Beijing Hualian, one of China's biggest retail groups.
Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN), the wireless chip developer and manufacturer, guided toward the mid point of its targeted revenue range.
TI narrowed revenue guidance to $3.4 billion to $3.5 billion, from a range of $3.3 to $3.6. While this updated guidance might not propel the stock much higher, following a very strong rally following the March quarter results, it will most likely not lead to much of a selloff either.
The investment strategy for TI: use any market pullbacks during the summer to initiate or add to your position. As with National Semiconductor Corporation's (NYSE: NSM) results last week, an upswing is just beginning in this industry that could last a number of years. The voice-data wireless upswing is one you do not want to miss.
Senior Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) executives are afraid the company could become a target of activist hedge funds seeking to break the company up, reported the Financial Times.
According to the Financial Times, a number of companies involved in options backdating scandals, including McAfee Incorporated (NYSE: MFE) and Novell Inc (NASDAQ: NOVL), could be vulnerable to takeover by activist investors.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times "Dealbook" reported that Porsche has bid $48.9B for Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY), and the bid will run for four weeks starting today.
The News Journal reported that AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) has received a subpoena from the Delaware Attorney General, which seeks documents about the company's contracts with Delaware hospitals.
The handset market is maturing and Texas Instruments' (NYSE: TXN) Q4 results clearly showed this:
5% decline in semiconductor sales sequentially
Wireless was the primary reason for the weakness, declining 10% sequentially. Handset growth is shifting to lower end products
Orders down 10% -- weak
Book to bill is at .89 -- weak
Expect revenue to decline for 1Q07 of 5% to 13% -- weak
Growth at TI is coming from a low-cost integrated chip for low-end phones sold in emerging markets. While this business is growing, it does not offset the weakness of the higher end 3-G business.
For TI to grow again, it needs a higher end product to take hold. Specifically, a mass market RIMM, Treo, or Q-type device, which will most likely not happen until the 2007 holiday season.
The folks at ThinkEquity believe that Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) is in for better days. They slapped an "accumulate" on the shares after carrying them as a "sell." The reason given was that TI's analog chip business should be getting better. ThinkEquity admits that the TI cell phone chip business is going to be rough for a long time. But, the research firm's sources say that the analog chip pick-up is broad and sustained. They put a new price target of $30 on the stock. It already trades above $28.
Almost any other research firm on Wall Street with an opinion on TI is worried about the stock. Stifel Nicolaus thinks TI's gross margins are down. Cathay Financial thinks that weakness in handset chips is continuing into 2007. And, Lehman Bros. has cut its earnings estimates for the big chip firm. Part of Lehman's analysis is that the analog business at TI is still "challenging."
Someone is right here and someone is wrong.
TI has two strikes on it. One is that it competes with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) in the handset chip market. QCOM has seen better days, but it has formidable market share in the handset market. In addition to that, almost no one thinks that handset giants Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Motorola (NYSE:MOT) will do well in 2007. Margins are dropping because the demand for phones tends to be in emerging markets where cheap is better. Cheaper phones, cheaper chips.
Analog may do OK for TI. But, it can't beat the devil. The handset market is in for some rough quarters.
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