Analyst Upgrades

• Philip Morris (PM) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Peet's Coffee (PEET) to neutral from sell at Janney Capital.
• Cephalon (CEPH) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• StoneMor Partners (STON) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Tibco (TIBX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

Option traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on Rehabcare Group Inc. (RHB). Traders plowed into 2,192 new call option contracts -- 18.9 times the average volume -- on the stock on Tuesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 100% of the trades came in on the ask price.

Rehabcare is sitting just above support at $16. The stock closed Tuesday at $16.56, up 23.16% during the past month.

There's not a whole lot on the economic calendar this coming week, as Thursday is Christmas day. But things are not entirely silent either.

As this is Christmas card season, it's somehow appropriate that American Greetings Corp. (NYSE: AM) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the nation's number two producer of greeting cards to report earnings of $0.52 per share, essentially the same as a year ago. Estimated revenue for the quarter is $474.5 million, down 2.3% from a year ago. American Greetings missed analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters -- by 55.4% in the first quarter. After falling to a multiyear low of $7.85 per share in late November, the price closed Friday at $9.92. But the share price is 53.8% lower than a year ago.

Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), where one may find American Greetings cards, is expected to also report earnings the same as a year ago, or $0.46 per share, on revenue of $15.1 billion (+7.5%). Walgreen reported a modest increase in sales in October and again in November. The company only missed profit estimates in one of the past four quarters, and that by only a penny. The consensus recommendation remains to buy WAG, which has a long-term EPS growth rate forecast of 12.5%, better than the S&P 500 but less than that of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). Walgreen's share price has been creeping upward since reaching a multiyear low of $21.28 in October and closed Friday at $26.08. (For more on Walgreen, see Steven Mallas's earnings preview.)

Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.

KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they are up 10.5% year to date.

Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. Friday, shares of Lennar also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they are down 6.4% year to date.

Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX), a business integration and process management software company, will report EPS on December 20.

Bear Stearns says: "We believe that the company's fundamentals continue to deteriorate."

TIBX December 7.5 straddle is priced at 80c. TIBX January option implied volatility of 63 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Websense Inc (WBSN), Dow Jones & Co, Inc (DJ), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD), US Airways Group, Inc (LLC), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc (HOT) were today's more noteworthy downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded Websense Inc (NASDAQ: WBSN) to Underperform from Hold with a $20 target to reflect slowing growth in the URL market, near-term business disruption from the pending SRF deal and summer software seasonality.

• Dow Jones & Co (NYSE: DJ) was cut to Hold from Buy at Gabelli and to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.

• Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Prudential.

• Merrill Lynch downgraded US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) to Neutral from Buy.

• Goldman downgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the weaker-than-expected quarterly fundamentals reported by the major hotel companies. The firm believes investors should stay away from the lodging sector...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Federated Investors, Inc (NYSE: FII) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation.

• Genesco Inc (NYSE: GCO) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper Jaffray.

• UBS cut Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) to Neutral from Buy.

• Tibco Software Inc (NASDAQ: TIBX) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.

• Baird downgraded Watts Water Technologies, Inc (NYSE: WTS) to Underperform from Neutral.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson (ERIC), Hiland Holdings (HPGP), AVX Corp (AVX), Tibco Software Inc (TIBX) and UPS (UPS) were some of today's notable downgrades:

• UBS downgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Neutral from Buy following the company's Q1 report that showed weaker than expected operating cash flow.

• Hiland Holdings (NASDAQ: HPGP) was cut from Wachovia to Underperform from Market Perform.

• AVX Corp (NYSE: AVX) was downgraded to Underweight form Neutral at JP Morgan.

• Goldman cut Tibco Software Inc (NASDAQ: TIBX) to Sell from Neutral, citing valuation.

• Stifel downgraded United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) to Hold from Buy at Stifel, after Q1 showed a slight decline in U.S. Ground parcel volume...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• AG Edwards downgraded Cigna Corp (NYSE: CI) to Hold from Buy.

• Covad Communications (AMEX: DVW) was cut to Hold from Buy at Stanford to reflect the postponed profit growth.

• Citigroup downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Hold from Buy on valuation.

• LongBow Research cut LSI Corp (NYSE: LSI) to Neutral from Buy; Wedbush cut shares to Hold from Buy on their disappointing Q1 report.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola Inc (MOT), Starbucks Corp (SBUX) and McDonald's Corp (MCD) were this morning's most notable initiations.

• Kaufman Bros. reinstated shares of Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) with a Buy rating and $23 target. The firm believes the current valuation represents a trough and a worse-case scenario for Motorola's handset-business.

• Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) was initiated with a Neutral, with a $36 target, at Prudential. The firm believes commodity prices could pressure margins in the short-term.

• Prudential also initiated McDonald's Corp (NYSE: MCD) with a Neutral rating and $43 target. They are positive on the fast-food giant, but consider shares to be fully valued.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Heelys Inc (NASDAQ: HLYS) was initiated by various firms today: Wachovia with a Market Perform, citing valuation; CIBC with a Sector Performer, citing valuation; Morgan Stanley with an Overweight rating; and Bear Stearns with an Outperform rating.

• JMP Securities initiated shares of Tibco Software (NASDAQ: TIBX) with an Outperform rating and $11 target. The firm believes Tibco is well positioned to capitalize on the move toward service-oriented architectures given its strong heritage in messaging, significant investments in application and process integration, relatively mature business process management platform, and emerging Active Matrix service delivery platform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).