Tibco Software (NASDAQ: TIBX - option chain) shares are rising today on reports from Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag that SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) is considering an acquisition of the company. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TIBX.

TIBX opened this morning at $9.53. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.16 and a high of $9.87. As of 11:35, TIBX is trading at $9.42 up 0.95 (11.2%). The chart for TIBX looks bullish and S&P gives TIBX a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

There's not a whole lot on the economic calendar this coming week, as Thursday is Christmas day. But things are not entirely silent either.

As this is Christmas card season, it's somehow appropriate that American Greetings Corp. (NYSE: AM) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the nation's number two producer of greeting cards to report earnings of $0.52 per share, essentially the same as a year ago. Estimated revenue for the quarter is $474.5 million, down 2.3% from a year ago. American Greetings missed analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters -- by 55.4% in the first quarter. After falling to a multiyear low of $7.85 per share in late November, the price closed Friday at $9.92. But the share price is 53.8% lower than a year ago.

Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), where one may find American Greetings cards, is expected to also report earnings the same as a year ago, or $0.46 per share, on revenue of $15.1 billion (+7.5%). Walgreen reported a modest increase in sales in October and again in November. The company only missed profit estimates in one of the past four quarters, and that by only a penny. The consensus recommendation remains to buy WAG, which has a long-term EPS growth rate forecast of 12.5%, better than the S&P 500 but less than that of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). Walgreen's share price has been creeping upward since reaching a multiyear low of $21.28 in October and closed Friday at $26.08. (For more on Walgreen, see Steven Mallas's earnings preview.)

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Neutral from Sell and said liquidity is no longer a near-term concern. The firm lowered Pacific Sunwear's target to $1.50 from $3. Citigroup upgraded shares to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness and believes Pacific Sunwear has sufficient liquidity to remain a going concern.
  
• Calyon believes Reliant Energy (NYSE: RRI) will be successful in unwinding the Merrill Lynch Retail credit sleeve and obtaining alternative collateral. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Add.
  
• JP Morgan said Cogent's (NASDAQ: COGT) position in homeland security and the defense markets make it less sensitive to an economic downturn, making valuation attractive. JP Morgan upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $13 from $10.50.
• Goldman added Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) to its Conviction Buy List and removed Riverbed (NASDAQ: RVBD) from the Conviction Sell List.
  
• J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) was raised to Buy from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.

Analyst upgrades:

• Roth Capital upgraded Charlotte Russe (NASDAQ: CHIC) to Hold from Sell. The firm is positive on management's strategy to drive improved operating performance and is encouraged by the company's longer-term growth prospects.
  
• Banc of America upgraded shares of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) to Neutral from Sell following the company's capital raise as they see a more balanced risk/reward at current levels. The firm lowered their target to $5 from $12.
  
• Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Ameriprise (NYSE: AMP) to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• Bob Evans (NASDAQ: BOBE) was upgraded to Hold from Underweight at KeyBanc.
• J. Sainsbury (OTC: JSAIY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at ING and to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan after the company topped earnings expectations.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Neutral from Overweight citing the "ambiguity of government aid structure" and the likely dilution to equity. The analyst said GM needs money now to get past December 2008 and will need at least $15B to get through 2009, with the total bailout potentially reaching $30B.
  
• Goldman downgraded Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) to Sell from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Sell List.
  
• J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.

KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they are up 10.5% year to date.

Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. Friday, shares of Lennar also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they are down 6.4% year to date.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wright Medical, Bristol-Myers and Tibco were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Wright Medical (NASDAQ: WMGI) to Overweight from Market Weight after transferring coverage to another analyst, as they believe the company is well-positioned for continued good near-term performance.
  
• Bernstein upgraded Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuation, growth, and views the company as a potential M&A target.
  
• Jefferies upgraded Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) to Hold from Underperform as they believe investor expectations for a buyout will keep the stock steady despite the company's deteriorating fundamentals.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Independent Bank (NASDAQ: IBCP) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was raised at Goldman to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Piper upgraded The9 (NASDAQ: NCTY) to Buy from Neutral.

J.P. Morgan upgraded Tibco Software (NASDAQ:TIBX) from "neutral" to "overweight", according to MarketWatch.

Sandler O'Neill & Partners cut its earnings targets on Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS) ahead of earnings, according to the AP.

Boeing (NYSE:BA) was cut to "sell" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs, according to the AP. Briefing.com also reports that AT&T (NYSE:T) was raised to "outperform" at Bernstein

Guess (NYSE:GES) is up 7% on strong earnings.

Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE) is up 3% on good same-store sales.

Tibco Software (NASDAQ:TIBX) is off 9% on a poor quarter.

Lehman (NYSE:LEH) is down 6% over concerns that it may have trouble raising money.

Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) is down 4% after reporting weak earnings.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Schering-Plough, Vodafone and Tibco were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Goldman downgraded Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) to Neutral from Buy following the panel discussion suggestion that doctors cut use of Vytrorin, Zetia. Shares were also cut at Lehman to Equal Weight from Overweight and at Cowen to Neutral from Outperform.
  
• Morgan Stanley lowered Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) to Underweight from Overweight as they believe the European Commission will aggressively lower mobile termination rates to cost to improve competition.
  Jefferies downgraded shares of Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) to Underperform from Hold as they believe the economy will catch up with the company in the coming months.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman removed Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) from its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Thomson (NYSE: TOC) was cut to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  
• Broadpoint downgraded Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) to Buy from Strong Buy.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Biogen Idec, Western Union and Tibco were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Banc of America upgraded shares of Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company's three year growth strategy and the approval of Tysabri for the treatment of Crohn's disease will support a higher valuation.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Western Union (NYSE: WU) to Outperform from Perform, citing improving operating margins, easing comps, and improvement in Mexico.
  
• Tibco Software (NASDAQ: TIBX) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. The firm upgraded shares following the acquisition of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to reflect the company's takeout potential and limited downside.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Royal Ahold (OTC: AHONY) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  
• Bear upgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
  
• Morgan Stanley raised Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) to Overweight from Equal Weight.

Tibco Software (NASDAQ: TIBX) is a business integration software company. The firm's products coordinate processes that span systems and enable interoperability between applications and information sources. The Tibco software suite includes applications for directing workflows, securely exchanging information with trading partners, and creating/maintaining documents. The company also offers consulting and support services. Customers include Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM).

The company pleased investors last week, when it announced Q4 EPS of 18 cents and revenues of $186.1 million. Analysts had been expecting 15 cents and $174.3 million. Management noted particular strength in the telecommunications, finance and life sciences arenas. License revenues rose 89% sequentially and 13% year over year.

Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX), a business integration and process management software company, will report EPS on December 20.

Bear Stearns says: "We believe that the company's fundamentals continue to deteriorate."

TIBX December 7.5 straddle is priced at 80c. TIBX January option implied volatility of 63 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Websense Inc (WBSN), Dow Jones & Co, Inc (DJ), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD), US Airways Group, Inc (LLC), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc (HOT) were today's more noteworthy downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded Websense Inc (NASDAQ: WBSN) to Underperform from Hold with a $20 target to reflect slowing growth in the URL market, near-term business disruption from the pending SRF deal and summer software seasonality.

• Dow Jones & Co (NYSE: DJ) was cut to Hold from Buy at Gabelli and to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.

• Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Prudential.

• Merrill Lynch downgraded US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) to Neutral from Buy.

• Goldman downgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the weaker-than-expected quarterly fundamentals reported by the major hotel companies. The firm believes investors should stay away from the lodging sector...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Federated Investors, Inc (NYSE: FII) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation.

• Genesco Inc (NYSE: GCO) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper Jaffray.

• UBS cut Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) to Neutral from Buy.

• Tibco Software Inc (NASDAQ: TIBX) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.

• Baird downgraded Watts Water Technologies, Inc (NYSE: WTS) to Underperform from Neutral.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson (ERIC), Hiland Holdings (HPGP), AVX Corp (AVX), Tibco Software Inc (TIBX) and UPS (UPS) were some of today's notable downgrades:

• UBS downgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Neutral from Buy following the company's Q1 report that showed weaker than expected operating cash flow.

• Hiland Holdings (NASDAQ: HPGP) was cut from Wachovia to Underperform from Market Perform.

• AVX Corp (NYSE: AVX) was downgraded to Underweight form Neutral at JP Morgan.

• Goldman cut Tibco Software Inc (NASDAQ: TIBX) to Sell from Neutral, citing valuation.

• Stifel downgraded United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) to Hold from Buy at Stifel, after Q1 showed a slight decline in U.S. Ground parcel volume...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• AG Edwards downgraded Cigna Corp (NYSE: CI) to Hold from Buy.

• Covad Communications (AMEX: DVW) was cut to Hold from Buy at Stanford to reflect the postponed profit growth.

• Citigroup downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Hold from Buy on valuation.

• LongBow Research cut LSI Corp (NYSE: LSI) to Neutral from Buy; Wedbush cut shares to Hold from Buy on their disappointing Q1 report.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola Inc (MOT), Starbucks Corp (SBUX) and McDonald's Corp (MCD) were this morning's most notable initiations.

• Kaufman Bros. reinstated shares of Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) with a Buy rating and $23 target. The firm believes the current valuation represents a trough and a worse-case scenario for Motorola's handset-business.

• Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) was initiated with a Neutral, with a $36 target, at Prudential. The firm believes commodity prices could pressure margins in the short-term.

• Prudential also initiated McDonald's Corp (NYSE: MCD) with a Neutral rating and $43 target. They are positive on the fast-food giant, but consider shares to be fully valued.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Heelys Inc (NASDAQ: HLYS) was initiated by various firms today: Wachovia with a Market Perform, citing valuation; CIBC with a Sector Performer, citing valuation; Morgan Stanley with an Overweight rating; and Bear Stearns with an Outperform rating.

• JMP Securities initiated shares of Tibco Software (NASDAQ: TIBX) with an Outperform rating and $11 target. The firm believes Tibco is well positioned to capitalize on the move toward service-oriented architectures given its strong heritage in messaging, significant investments in application and process integration, relatively mature business process management platform, and emerging Active Matrix service delivery platform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).