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Viacom Dominates Theaters with 'Paranormal Activity 2'

Last time around, Viacom (VIA.B) had the number-one film of the weekend with Jackass 3D. Well, the studio has done it again, this time with a project more suited for the upcoming holiday dedicated to ghosts, goblins, and low-budget celluloid horrors.

According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, Paranormal Activity 2 obliterated the competition at domestic theaters. It took in well over $40 million, more than enough for first place. Of course, the company behind the picture that came in second isn't crying: Jackass 3D, which captured another $20 million and is now on its way to passing $100 million in total gross, is also from Viacom.

Continue reading Viacom Dominates Theaters with 'Paranormal Activity 2'

Viacom's 'Jackass' Franchise Makes Triumphant Return

Viacom (VIA.B) scored this past weekend with Johnny Knoxville and his self-abusing colleagues. The film Jackass 3D came out on top, making $50 million at domestic theaters in its debut, according to early estimates at Box Office Mojo. Viacom beat out high-profile products from various media companies: Summit Entertainment's Red, Sony's (SNE) The Social Network, Time Warner's (TWX) Life As We Know It, and Disney's (DIS) Secretariat all had to step aside and watch as multiplexes filled with fans eager to see the comedy saturated with a series of painful stunts.

It isn't too surprising. The promotional campaign for the movie seemed to have hit its target demographic, creating an appropriate amount of excitement that eventually translated into copious ticket sales. Plus, except for Red, the other movies mentioned were already out in the marketplace, making them not as much of a threat to the energetic new kid on the block.

Continue reading Viacom's 'Jackass' Franchise Makes Triumphant Return

Disney's 'Secretariat' Disappoints

As a Disney (DIS) shareholder, I was disappointed by the third-place showing for the company's latest film, Secretariat. According to Box Office Mojo, it took in an estimated $12.6 million over the Friday to Sunday weekend. We still have the Monday holiday to go, but I don't think it'll make much difference.

I suppose one could say it did all right in its debut considering the type of movie it is and the time of year; this isn't the summer, certainly, so we're not necessarily going to observe supercharged grosses. But I think Disney has a lot to prove with each of its films these days since CEO Bob Iger has been focusing on finding the right strategy for growth in a division that hasn't always pulled its weight.

Continue reading Disney's 'Secretariat' Disappoints

Time Warner, Video on Demand and the Stock

Time Warner (TWX) was trading higher at the time of this writing by 2%. A quote of $31.37 just went by on my screen. The 52-week low for the stock is $26.43 while the 52-week high is $34.07. Should investors take a look at the media company?

I was thinking about Time Warner today because there are news reports out concerning management's desire to make premium video on demand a reality. We've been hearing about this strategy for a long time, and I hope it finally comes to pass in a major way. Basically, according to the Los Angeles Times, the plan is to charge a high amount (perhaps as much as $30) for a film shortly after it appears in theaters but well before it hits other distribution channels such as Netflix (NFLX). We may see some activity on this front next year.

Continue reading Time Warner, Video on Demand and the Stock

Analyst Calls: ADBE, AXP, BAX, COST, DLB, FDX, HOT, NOK, NVS, TWX ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Soleil upgraded Baxter (BAX) to buy from hold on expectations the company will benefit from supply disruptions at privately-held plasma manufacturer Octapharma. The firm raised its price target for shares to $56 from $45.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Dolby (DLB) to buy from hold, citing valuation following the recent underperformance of shares. The firm upped its price target to $75 from $70.
  • Bernstein upgraded Alexion (ALXN) to outperform from market perform based on increased Soliris forecasts for PNH and potential in aHUS. The firm also raised its price target to $75 from $60.
  • Agrium (AGU) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
  • Roche (RHHBY) was upgraded to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
  • BMO Capital upgraded Energizer (ENR) to outperform from market perform.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: ADBE, AXP, BAX, COST, DLB, FDX, HOT, NOK, NVS, TWX ...

Analyst Calls: AAPL, CYH, DIS, ISRG, IVR, NYT, SNDK, TWX, VIA, VMC, WFMI ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Soleil upgraded Community Health (CYH) to buy from hold based on expectations for improved 2011 demand. The firm has a $40 price target on the stock.
  • Wunderlich upgraded Invesco Mortgage (IVR) to buy from hold following the company's better-than-expected Q3 dividend. The firm also raised its target price for shares to $23.50 from $21.50.
  • Goldman upgraded SuccessFactors (SFSF) to conviction buy from buy, citing cloud exposure.
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
  • Comstock Resources (CRK) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Ladenburg.
  • Trimble Navigation (TRMB) was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AAPL, CYH, DIS, ISRG, IVR, NYT, SNDK, TWX, VIA, VMC, WFMI ...

Time Warner's 'Town' Craftier Than Shyamalan's Latest Project

No one can truly predict the movie business. I can't, certainly. If you had asked me what film would turn out to be the most popular among movie patrons this past weekend, I would have told you that Devil, distributed by General Electric's (GE) Universal Pictures, stood the best chance of slithering its evil celluloid self to the top of the heap. As it turns out, I was wrong. Time Warner's (TWX) The Town, directed by and starring Ben Affleck, was the winner at domestic theaters, according to Box Office Mojo.

Town brought in over $23 million as of estimates available at the time of this writing. In second place was Easy A, from Sony (SNE), with $18 million. Devil made about $12 million. The Los Angeles Times says that all of these projects didn't cost an exorbitant amount to produce.

Continue reading Time Warner's 'Town' Craftier Than Shyamalan's Latest Project

Analyst Calls: BA, COST, DELL, GD, INTC, LVS, MGM, PCLN, TWX, V, VIA ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Goldman upgraded Costco (COST) to buy from neutral based on valuation, improving fundamentals and potential catalysts. The firm raised its price target to $68 from $62.
  • Soleil upgraded MGM Resorts (MGM) to buy from hold, citing valuation, easing balance sheet concerns and a multiyear convention recovery. The firm upped its target for shares to $14 from $13. Note, Soleil also downgraded Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to hold from buy.
  • Piper Jaffray upgraded Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) to overweight from neutral with a $59 price target following the company's better-than-expected Q2 results.
  • Dell (DELL) was upgraded to buy from outperform at CLSA.
  • CommScope (CTV) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
  • EnCana (ECA) was upgraded to sector outperformer from sector performer at CIBC.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BA, COST, DELL, GD, INTC, LVS, MGM, PCLN, TWX, V, VIA ...

Movie Business in Need of Attendance

Media companies like Disney (DIS), News Corp. (NWS), and Time Warner (TWX) are dependent on a healthy celluloid industry. As times have changed, the industry has become more challenging. Home video, for example, is mired in a complex conundrum: how does one grow physical media revenue in the digital age? How does video-on-demand fit into the picture? What about online downloads? When you think about it, theatrical exhibition is becoming more important than ever before as post-multiplex channels of distribution undergo radical changes to keep up with the times.

Unfortunately, the following article from the Associated Press indicates that there's a lot of marketing work to be done in Hollywood. You see, while summer box-office sales are up, the quantity of admission transactions has declined.

Continue reading Movie Business in Need of Attendance

Lionsgate Beats Competition Again with 'Expendables'

Lionsgate (LGF) continued its reign at the domestic multiplex. Last weekend, the studio was No. 1 with The Expendables. This past weekend, the film was popular enough to repeat the feat, taking in $16 million, according to estimates from Box Office Mojo. The project has grossed well over $60 million so far.

News Corp.'s (NWS) Vampires Suck, Sony's (SNE) Eat Pray Love, and Time Warner's (TWX) Lottery Ticket just couldn't keep up with the action flick. The first two movies grossed about $12 million each, while Ticket took in around $11 million.

Continue reading Lionsgate Beats Competition Again with 'Expendables'

Chasing Value: Cheap Stocks by the Book

In case you need to be reminded to look closely at the books, today's poster boy for erroneous ledgers, Bernie Maddoff, should be a constant reminder. Furthermore, when you are looking at the books, remember that Benjamin Graham, mentor to "my pal Warren," advised buying stocks for less than their intrinsic value. And book value is the starting point in attempting to establish that.

Two weeks ago, I posted an update on my toxic stock picks. These were six unloved stocks where I felt the stage was set for market beating returns. The same is true again for today's market-beating group, although it is not the headlines that tied this group together, but their standout bargain metrics.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Cheap Stocks by the Book

If Snooki Can Beat Viacom, Is the Hollywood Business Model in Trouble?

SnookiI've been thinking about the whole Jersey Shore zeitgeist. You know the show. It's on Viacom's (VIA) MTV. It's a huge hit, everyone is talking about it and its stars (Snooki, The Situation, etc.). It also was mentioned in a recent conference call the media company had with investors.

It was reported that the cast was able to significantly increase its salary for the reality series. When I first heard about the demands, I mused to myself that this was a grand opportunity for Hollywood to say no to minor celebrities. After all, it's just a reality show, folks. Even though Snooki is immensely popular, there are many more Snooki-type individuals out there. Dime-a-dozen comes to mind when thinking of the goofy girl with the poofy coif.

Continue reading If Snooki Can Beat Viacom, Is the Hollywood Business Model in Trouble?

Time Warner: Stay on the Sidelines After Q2?

Time Warner Inc. (TWX), a media company which competes with The Walt Disney Corporation (DIS) and News Corp. (NWS), among others, has traded in a narrow range over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $26.43; the 52-week high is $34.07. Shares finished Wednesday's session at a price of $32.47.

Management released Q2 numbers earlier in the day. According to the AP, adjusted profit was 50 cents per share, five pennies better than expectations. Sounds good, but there wasn't much action in the stock. That $32.47 closing price I just referred to represents a flat percentage gain.

Continue reading Time Warner: Stay on the Sidelines After Q2?

Disney Needs a New Box Office Spell

Everyone was excited this past weekend for Time Warner's (TWX) Inception movie. It was the No. 1 feature at domestic theaters, with an estimated gross of $60 million, according to Box Office Mojo (final figures are due later). Good news for shareholders of that company. I, however, am a shareholder of Disney (DIS), so the bigger story to me was the failure of The Sorcerer's Apprentice.

Despicable Me, from General Electric's (GE) Universal, came in second with over $32 million. Apprentice was third with $17 million -- a very disappointing take. The project opened last Wednesday, so its total since then is around $24 million: Terrible.

Continue reading Disney Needs a New Box Office Spell

DreamWorks Animation: Time for a Buy Out?

DreamWorks DWA logoHere's a very interesting item from Theflyonthewall concerning DreamWorks Animation (DWA). It appears that the cartoon concern possibly isn't so fond of being a standalone entity any longer. Instead, it might want to be purchased by another media player. Comcast (CMCSA) was mentioned as a potential suitor.

There's some confusion, however, over this topic; it's not clear whether Jeffrey Katzenberg, the CEO of DreamWorks Animation, approached Comcast or Comcast approached Katzenberg.

Continue reading DreamWorks Animation: Time for a Buy Out?

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