MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal said the $19B privatization of Clear Channel Communications Inc (NYSE: CCU) was near collapse as the private-equity firms behind the deal and the banks financing it failed to resolve their differences over terms of the credit agreement, people familiar with the matter said.
• Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) are in talks to fund a new nationwide wireless company that would be operated by Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) and Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR), and use WiMax technology, reported the Wall Street Journal. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) may also help with funding.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported federal regulators are handing out warnings to banks due to their exposure to development loans and commercial real-estate construction. Sources believe Corus Bankshares Incorporated (NASDAQ: CORS) is facing trouble in the near future due to increasing scrutiny by regulators and the fact that much of the fallout in the condo sector has yet to be felt by banks.
• Some banks in the government-sponsored Federal Home Loan Banking system want to guarantee municipal infrastructure projects, the Financial Times reported, thus fulfilling the role traditionally taken by monoline insurance groups such as MBIA Inc(NYSE: MBI).

Newspaper wrap-up: Sources say Clear Channel deal near collapse over loan term originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Mar 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is going to be a journey ending with eight stock picks for 2008, on December 28, 2007. It is my intention to use the closing prices on that day for those eight stocks as the point of departure to publicly track the results and see if I can beat the market again. This year, as measured through October I have done so. I have also been tracking James Cramer's picks and he too has beaten the market to date, but lags behind me (sorry, couldn't resist). While we made some great picks, we both had some dogs as well. Furthermore, I will be the first one to admit that there is some luck involved in the short run.

Last year I beat the market, earning 29%, and it was my fifth straight year doing so after going down in flames with the rest of you when the tech bubble burst. At that time I also had the pleasure of being an Enron investor as well, so I have made plenty of blunders. But I have learned a lot from my mistakes, and hopefully others can learn from them as well as I share my investing adventures and how I turned things around.

Continue reading Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Richard Parsons is giving up his position as chief executive officer at Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to be replaced on Jan. 1 by Jeff Bewkes, the current president. Parsons is stepping down, not because the job is done but because his job is done. He is no longer the person for the job and that has become apparent to everyone, including him. There is no angst, there is no acrimony -- he has done some things very well during difficult times, but it's time to move on.

There are those who would have you believe that this move should have come earlier, myself included. But Parsons and the board were not working on my timetable. Parsons will retain his position as chairman of the company. Depending on how quickly his replacement, TWX president Jeff Bewkes implements his ideas for change, Parsons may be leaving a company that does not much resemble the one he has been leading the last few years.

AOL has already changed a lot. We have witnessed AOL being removed from the company name after billions of dollars of write-downs. AOL was converted to an advertising model instead of being subscription-based. It established partnerships with many other companies including Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which acquired a 5% stake for $1 billion and is now the primary search engine.

Time Warner Cable concluded its acquisition of Adelphia Cable and reorganized to form the independent Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) and is struggling somewhat as the cable market changes with the telcos and satellite media providers joining in the competition for home users by bundling services.

Time Inc. has sold off some magazine titles, closed down others and is still trying to define where its future fortunes will be found.

Continue reading Parsons steps down at Time Warner (TWX) - his job is done

Parsons steps down at Time Warner (TWX) - his job is done originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Nov 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Chasing Value post marks my 400th story for BloggingStocks over the last 18 months. I originally agreed to do about five per month, so I have exceeded what I thought was practical, given my other responsibilities. Through this time I have learned a lot about writing, blogging, editing, the internet, AOL, and have continued to improve my investing acumen, which is a never-ending process. Many of our readers have contributed with some thought-provoking commentary and made this time a more interesting journey. I created the Chasing Value section after discussions with Senior Editor Amey Stone, and it seems to have gathered a modest following. This is the latest installment tracking my 2007 picks.

Through September, the market has benefited from a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, recovering much of August's losses. This has also stimulated oil and gold prices to new highs and caused the dollar to shrink in value overseas. To some degree I think this resulted in foreign stocks rising significantly, most notably Huaneng Power International ADS which derives 100% of its revenue outside the United States. Last December, I made a strong case for HNP; prior to its recent rise I did so again for our Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

This year continues to be a stock picker's market, as the volatile James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I have both topped the indices. Cramer made the best and worst picks for the year among those I've been tracking monthly. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the best performer among all the stocks and indices in this review, and has stabilized what might have otherwise been a mediocre showing. It has been a good year for energy and tech stocks. The past few months have been dismal for the financial sector, and anything lingering near its giant shadow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again approaching its high of 14,000 and looks like there might be room to exceed it. The housing market and subprime loans continue to worry investors, but unlike last month when an interest rate cut was not a certainty, the market seems to be betting now that another cut is not far off.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There has been more than speculation that Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) is near the center of Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) radar screen, but perhaps AOL-Yahoo would be better fit. Maybe a deal for AOL will be more likely once Jeff Bewkes replaces Richard Parsons as chief executive of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). (The Wall Street Journal reported today that Bewkes is likely to take over from CEO Dick Parsons as early as Jan. 1, 2008).

One reason Microsoft does not own Yahoo already is that Yahoo is expensive. Maybe Yahoo has another path to follow. Maybe Yahoo and Time Warner could help each other out. If Time Warner set AOL free to merge with Yahoo than their combined forces might be a better competitor for both Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)and Microsoft.

The current five year deal between AOL and Google made Google the seach engine for the site and since it forked over $1 billlion for 5% of the business, the valuation if it were independant would be $20 billlion. More importantly at the time it was reported that 10% of Googles revenue was generated through AOL. That certainly was incentive to get a deal done. I have seen no current data on this but if it is somewhere in the vicinty then a Yahoo/AOL combination would reduce Googles stranglehold on search and add it to the new company. It might represent as much as a 20% swing in traffic and revenue.

If Yahoo were to be acquired by Microsoft, it would become a part of what is now a very large conglomerate. One that should give some thought to it's own lethargy. Microsoft is losing money on numerous hardware ventures and might be better off refocusing on software, both online and in the business environment. Now that Parsons is stepping aside to let Bewkes lead pehaps there will be the energy and insight to make a move.

Continue reading Future Time Warner (TWX) CEO Jeff Bewkes should consider an AOL-Yahoo deal

Future Time Warner (TWX) CEO Jeff Bewkes should consider an AOL-Yahoo deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Through the month of June it seems that it remains a stock pickers' market as Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I all topped the indices. Google continued its strong move upward battling me for the lead, while Cramer lost much of his gains of last month competing to stay ahead of the indices. Cramer is sticking with his NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) pick, and it continues to drag him down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my sixth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

There seems to be growing support for large cap stocks which analysts have been talking about but now might be starting to show up for real. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, June seemed more cautious then May except in foreign markets as indicated by the strong rise in my Chinese picks. Investors moved the S&P 500 index to new highs.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When I look at Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and I think back to the merger with AOL I cannot help but think about all the value that evaporated rather quickly. Since that time billions of dollars in write-downs and write-offs have occurred, AOL was dropped from the name, and Time Warner has emerged slowly but surely from the kinds of challenges that business schools will be doing case studies on for many years to come.

I was a shareholder of AOL and stayed with it, so I am a TWX shareholder now. I anticipated the rise in the stock over the last year and made it one of my seven picks for 2007, optimistically believing it was set for more of the same growth. So far it has been dead money in 2007, not moving much in either direction. Carl Icahn made a big move on the stock last year and has since left with a tidy profit. He stirred things up a little but in the end did not have the backing to accomplish the changes he envisioned. Dick Parsons, CEO, made just enough changes to speed up the Time Warner train but not enough to alter its course.

Continue reading Time Warner is not integrated yet

Time Warner is not integrated yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Jun 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In June of 2006, after a month of writing for BloggingStocks, I wrote about our original "Great 8" stocks. Amazingly this is my 300th story - never thought that was possible. It's been fun and educational. During the last few months I started three special sections with the coaxing of Amey Stone and with the coaching of Sarah Gilbert. I decided to go back to the beginning and review the original "Great 8" again and see how my discussion points panned out.

In the past year the Federal Reserve Board has sat on the fence leaving interest rates untouched, however, their hemming and hawing has moved the market at times as fear and greed and speculation had the usual effect of jiggling the market from time to time. Housing starts have fallen steadly to scary levels in some parts of the country. The Iraq war is still on the front pages as the death toll increases and President Bush's influence evaporates.

In last year's report I said "there are no bargains yet, but there are some very interesting developments in the fundamentals" - - so what now?

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner to the upside in the past year followed by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) aided by the influence of Carl Icahn, major stock buy-backs and changes in AOL and the cable business, has also performed well. The following were the four things that seemed noteworthy at the time. All of them were relevant to what happend.

1. TWX has a very low price-to-book ratio.
2. GE has powerful products to sell -- literally: aircraft and standby power engines, water resource management and equipment. Plus it has a strong dividend.
3. WMT had a very low price-to-sales ratio before and it is still extremely low at .64. While the stock price is going nowhere and has not for years they seem to be creating more shareholder equity. They are a huge company so the prospects are that they move up slowly over time but are not goin to be exciting to watch -- unless they are building one next door to you house.
4. GOOG has an extraordinary return on invested capital (ROIC).

Here's my take on all eight stocks:

Continue reading ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO

ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jun 2007 18:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The month of May was all about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com has come roaring back after a poor showing in April. Google also made a strong move upward. After languishing for three months it has come close to its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my fifth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

The DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, May was not a time of caution. Investors moved everything upward with even the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. Cramer took back the lead and for the first time the indices lagged.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through April 30, 2007 after many companies have reported their first quarter earnings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJAI) passed the 13,000 watermark and set new record highs. We are still in the midst of earnings season. This is my fourth follow-up report. Not enough time to prove much but plenty of time to make or lose some money. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

This month an interesting trend took hold. Even with the indices reaching new highs and many stocks doing so as well, it seems there must be some caution in the wind. This is the first month that my value approach lead the pack and Cramer's approach, whatever it is, took a back seat. Not only is Cramer lagging each of the indices, but four of his six speculative and growth picks were down while all three of his value picks were up. Google seems to be dead in the water for now, having reported tremendous growth and beating analyst's guestimates again by a wide margin, it still has not gained any traction even in an up market.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth

Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 May 2007 16:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: +2.82% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to 2.99%. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
• The Indexes remained slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of 0.85 for the quarter.
• My picks are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -0.61% for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of 0.14% which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and super losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated.
• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: -1.0% Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately.

Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK).

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops

Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through February 28, 2007 which has come and gone all too quickly. It is my second follow-up report. Two months is a short time in the market for a buy and hold guy like me, and ages for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:.

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% last month but now after two months is: +2%. Interestingly it is his speculative stocks that are up the most. Best pick so far Level 3 communications.
• The Indexes all reversed from positive territory to slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%.
• Liber return is negative at -1.9% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina which is down 22%. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point. Best pick so far Valero Energy.
• Google provided an +8.1% return in January and has since slipped for a YTD loss: -2.9% Among all considerations Google had the poorest showing in the last month going from first to last.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramers picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Company and The Home Depot.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and two month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top

Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Mar 2007 14:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

So January 2007 is already history and this is my first follow-up report. I recognize that from an investment perspective it is almost meaningless to gain any insight into the quality of my stock selections after only one month.

In truth, even a year is an arbitrary length of time to know anything for sure. On one occasion I sold Boeing (NYSE: BA) after holding it about 18 months, shortly before its rise, when its new CEO exercised some ethically and morally 'poor secretarial judgment'. Then I watched the stock double in quick order.

If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• Google provided an 8.1% return heading into reporting season. It has since slipped.
• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% which was very good. There might be some Cramer bump but if there is it will fade and for now he has done great.
• The Indexes were all in positive territory.
• Liber return was slightly negative for January -0.55% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point and believe it will be up this year.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividend yields to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins

Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Feb 2007 17:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday I put my reputation on the line by recommending seven stocks that I think will outperform the market in 2007, You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!. In the past few years I have made some great calls and doubled, sometimes even tripled the market averages, helped along by stocks like PetroChina, (NYSE: PTR) acquired for $44 and closing yesterday $142.12; Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) acquired at $7.70 and closing yesterday at $96.73; Merck (NYSE: MRK) acquired at $32.00 rising to $43.55, and Time Warner Inc. acquired at $12.10 and settling in last night at $22.00. There were many others.

This all followed the same disastrous 2001 collapse that most investors suffered. I wish I would have listened to James Cramer when he told me in a personal email that telecom stocks were going down hard. Like any of us, he is not always right -- but he was way right about that!

It has been said, and is worth repeating,"experience is what you get when you were expecting something else." We all got way too much experience in 2001. Since that time I have recovered all of my losses and then some, but it took a lot of work, a lot of study, and certainly some luck. Let's just say I'm older and wiser.

In making yesterday's recommendations I tried to stay away from get rich quick notions and chose stocks that I believe have strong upside potential with protection against downside risk. All seven of my 2007 picks are well known companies to most stock market investors. They are all companies that I feel are buy and hold propositions.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended:

1. The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02
2. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK): $33.02
3. The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73
4. Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36.00
5. PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12
6. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00
7. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $51.61

I will report back each month with the closing stock price as of the 28th of each month. If I am wrong it will be very public. Although I did not recommend jumping in each of these stocks at these prices immediately, I will use them for tracking purposes, come what may.

Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, TWX and will likely own DOW, HD, and VLO prior to next months report.

Happy New Year!

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Lets discuss your picks for 2007

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Following 007 takes courage - but here goes! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Dec 2006 15:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As a long-term shareholder I appreciated news of the breakout of Time Warner Cable.

Now, I'm sure some clicking on this post thought that maybe a typo had escaped the editors, but I did mean "muddle" in the title of this post and not "middle". Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) has been encouraged for some time by shareholders, Carl Icahn, analysts, and various prognosticators and their like to give the market place a clear picture of the company's assets, company's goals, and to unlock their hidden value. This is value that many viewed as mired in a muddle of slow-moving, misdirected pieces aggregated in a conglomerate, lead by a board that just did not get it or get with it.

The news that TWX is going to release Time Warner Cable, which flies under the banner TWC, from its corporate bondage was welcomed by Wall Street and I'm sure Mr. Icahn. In fact this plan may be one of the things shared with Carl Icahn months ago that pacified him and his investor group from "throwing things" in the meetings with Chairman Richard Parsons. This and dramatic changes at the AOL division which are still ongoing.

Continued clarity of purpose and strong leadership will continue to bring value to TWX in the coming years so I will be holding on for a while.

There are many companies stuck in the muddle that should give some thought to this issue of clarity and give investors something they can understand while demonstrating they themselves (corporate executives) know what they are doing.

Other companies that I believe are stuck in the muddle include the following: Yahoo (YHOO); Sun Microsystems (SUNW) which is just plain stuck; General Electric (GE) which should at least tell us why they must continue to own NBC; Microsoft (MSFT) is less muddled lately and 2007 should be their opportunity to come clean; Citigroup (C) is going nowhere fast with lots of potential and nothing happening -- this is one that should definitely "speed up, slow down, or get the hell out of the way"; Ford (G) and General Motors (GM)... could they be more muddled up? Anybody want to add to the list of muddled companies? There are plenty.

Disclosure: In addition to owning TWX, I own Ford bonds bought at a discount to face value. I hold no other position long or short in any other stock mentioned.

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Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

Time Warner Cable no longer stuck in the muddle originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Oct 2006 18:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Having addressed some controversial issues like eBay and the real estate market through a series of posts, one of BloggingStocks most avid (and astute) readers asked me to tackle another tough issue -- Immigration reform.

He directed me to the following September 15 2006 article, "Immigration Raid Makes a Ghost Town." The story points out :

"Last month, the federal government reported that Georgia had the fastest-growing illegal immigrant population in the country. The number more than doubled from an estimated 220,000 in 2000 to 470,000 last year. This year, state lawmakers passed some of the nation's toughest measures targeting illegal immigrants, and Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue last week vowed a statewide crackdown on document fraud."

The article is clearly slanted toward the plight of the people that were hauled away, creating the "ghost town," and is slanted against the government. In this case I may have been swayed by similar feelings, as was our reader. However, I am not one to appreciate the political polarization we create among ourselves and I do not feel this article is balanced in its reporting.

Even in the paragraph I have quoted I would not mention the political affiliation of the Governor. Some might say it is normal to do so, but I say it adds nothing to the story and only fuels the wrong fire. This story will take volumes and I do not know how much energy I have to cover it, but if you do not have your own soap box, I am more than happy to share mine. Perhaps we can thrash out what this all means.

One of the first things that I noted in the article was the use of the term illegal "immigrants" as opposed to illegal "aliens," which by itself is an indication of where one's sympathies may lie.

Continue reading Business contends with illegal 'aliens,' immigrants in a Ghost Town?

Business contends with illegal 'aliens,' immigrants in a Ghost Town? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Sep 2006 18:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yes, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is still one of the most fascinating companies in the world, commanding a high price and superstar investor status.

Google remains in the news with multiple stories broadcast on the web each day, and everywhere else: bonding with Apple (AAPL) and Time Warner (TWX), challenging Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and eBay (EBAY), scaring newspapers and publishers, adding features to their line of products and services, getting tangled up in litigation here (Click Fraud) and abroad (Google relents and posts Belgian court ruling on its website), analysts speculation about GOOG's future share value and all this is just a partial accounting.

90 days ago I posted 10 Reasons I think Google is going down: and the following was reason number 10. This recap and update tracks current values holding myself accountable for my comments.

10. Does not pass the equivalence test.

Continue reading GOOG still FASCINATING: 90-day update on equivalency test

GOOG still FASCINATING: 90-day update on equivalency test originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 25 Sep 2006 14:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.