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BigBand Networks making inroads in China

I've written about BigBand Networks (NASDAQ: BBND) before on BloggingStocks here. While I don't own the company, it remains on my watchlist because I do think that the technology provider for the cable industry has the makings of influencing the future of content and advertising delivery for the cable industry. As I wrote previously, the company has some operational issues to sort out as it matures as a publicly-traded firm.

Yesterday, BigBand announced it has sold its multi-media router technology to five more Chinese cable operators. The company said that it landed new customers Tibet Cable, Tiacang Cable, Jiayuguan Cable, Nanchang Cable and Luan Cable. BigBand says that with these customers it serves more than 40 service providers in China.

Recently, the company announced that Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) has chosen BigBand as its switched digital video vendor. This is another feather in the hat for a company that is the arms dealer in the arms race between telcos and cable companies to offer video services and applications. With the most widely deployed switched video solution (SDV), BigBand has seven of the top ten largest service providers in the U.S., selling to companies like Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ). The company is also positioned to benefit from what analysts call TelcoTV (video delivered over DSL).

BigBand is down over 65% this year. It's possible that the stock is bottoming out,here but it's worth losing some points to the upside and waiting to see if management regains credibility by smoothing out its earnings performance.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Miller holds no position in stocks mentioned above.

Time Warner Cable (TWC) earnings: Record numbers of phone subscribers, video revenue up

Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) logoTime Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE:TWC) has posted earnings. Revenues for the third quarter rose 25% ($792 million) over the third quarter of 2006 to $4.0 billion, and earnings were listed as $0.25 on basic and diluted earnings. First Call shows estimates at $0.27 EPS and $4.06 billion revenues.

The stock is up at the open. As of 9:45 am, it is at $27.88, a gain of 33 cents or 1.2%.

The company still reports on an OIBDA basis: Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization ("OIBDA") climbed 28% and operating income grew 24% over Q3 2006; OIBDA rose 12% and operating income grew 14% over Pro Forma Q3 2006.

This was a record quarterly net gain of 275,000 Digital Phone Subscribers that fueled the largest ever quarterly net increase of 220,000 Triple Play Subscribers. If you want to break it down by net additions, this is a total of revenue generating units having reached 522,000 net additions in the quarter.

Subscription revenues increased 25% ($749 million) to $3.8 billion; video revenues grew 21% ($440 million) to $2.5 billion, reflecting continued penetration of digital video services and video price increases; High-speed data revenues rose 26% ($197 million) to $942 million; Advertising revenues increased 24% ($43 million) to $221 million.

Unfortunately, these numbers are all skewed due to a large Kansas City pool of customers being transferred in the quarter.


Time Warner (TWX) earnings meet expectations

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) posted earnings per share of 29 cents after items, but on a normalized basis the company's earnings were 24 cents. Revenue was $11.68 billion. First Call estimates were for earnings of 24 cents on revenue of $11.36 billion.

As far as how this compares, it really seems like the results were better than expected. Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization climbed 15% to $3.2 billion, reflecting double-digit increases in the Cable, Filmed Entertainment and Publishing segments, as well as a gain at the Networks segment. This growth was offset partly by a decline at AOL. Operating Income was up 29% to $2.1 billion.

Time Warner continued its aggressive share buyback. As of November 6, 2007, the company has repurchased approximately 119 million shares for approximately $2.2 billion since its $5 billion program was announced on August 1. At existing prices, the company expects to complete at least half of the program by the time the time it reports its 2007 full-year and fourth-quarter results.

Continue reading Time Warner (TWX) earnings meet expectations

Option update 10-30-07: Time Warner volatility elevated

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) closed at $18.10.

Soleil Securities says: "We now believe that the CEO role at TWX will change hands before year-end 2007." Soleil believes there is an upside potential to the share price in the event of a Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) spin-off, a publishing segment sale and a spin-off and sale or IPO of AOL.

TWX is expected to announce EPS on 11/7.

TWX November option implied volatility of 31 is above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.


Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Time Warner Cable near 52-week low on telecoms' resurgence

Sometimes growing cable numbers on a raw basis just aren't enough. That was the case over the punishment seen on Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) earnings. It wasn't the raw growth, and it wasn't really the earnings. It was the relative growth and the notion that CEO Brian Roberts specifically noted how new offerings were creating a challenging environment in Q4. If it is challenging then in one quarter, that won't be a one-quarter issue.

As a result, shares of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) are now both flirting with 52-week lows.

The main culprit for this "challenging environment" is the growing popularity and installs seen out of Verizon (NYSE: VZ)'s FiOS and AT&T (NYSE: T)'s uVerse digital television and home-fiber bundles. These were hard to believe in with much conviction about 12 to 24 months ago when you had gotten used to the lightning speeds of cable versus DSL.

But it turns out that in a slowing economy and with the opportunity to save cash, more customers are at least willing to entertain the notion of using the telecom again. Since AT&T and Verizon each also have stellar mobile phone coverage, and since people are actually starting to go without landline phones in the home, the telecoms might actually have a solid argument.

Did Time Warner (TWX, TWC) shares get whacked by month-end window dressing (and could the pain persist)?

It's no secret that Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) stocks had a rough third quarter in 2007. This weak performance might have been a negative catalyst at the end of the quarter as fund managers and investment advisors moved to get those shares off their books.

This could continue in October since this marks the end of many mutual fund annual report periods. (If you want to see how fund managers and investment advisors look at stocks at the end of the quarter, I compiled a list of Window Dressing Beneficiaries for Q3 on Friday and the performance was nothing short of amazing in key tech names.)

Time Warner Inc. closed at $18.36 on Friday to end the quarter, down from the adjusted $20.97 close on June 29 and down from the $21.51 highs in early July. This means shares were down 12.44% on an adjusted basis for the quarter. Time Warner Cable ended the quarter at $32.80, down from the June 29 close of $39.17 and down from highs north of $42.00 in mid-July. This means shares were down 16.26% on an adjusted basis for the quarter.

Continue reading Did Time Warner (TWX, TWC) shares get whacked by month-end window dressing (and could the pain persist)?

Both Time Warner stocks (TWC and TWX) flirt with 52-week lows

Tuesday marked an interesting day for Time Warner -- actually both Time Warners. Shares of both Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) hit 52-week lows during the day. TWX dipped as low as $17.77 and TWC to $30.77.

It seems as if almost every internet company is rumored to be in merger talks. But lately, Time Warner's AOL unit is left out. If AOL has to rely solely on the cash of the parent to do deals and make cash buyouts, then it is at a strategic disadvantage compared to other web leaders. The company is kicking major (you know what) on the advertising front, but it needs a cashless currency to do deals. In short, it needs a tracking stock.

Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) is not in considerably better shape. Cable shares are under fire, or so analysts and pundits claim, from broadband over phone lines via Verizon Communication''s(NYSE: VZ) FiOS and AT&T Inc.'s (NYSE: T) uVerse offerings. Even Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) hit a new low recently.

Time Warner Cable needs a much larger free float for its shares for it to be in the same league as other public cable companies. Time Warner Inc. can make a similar effort for a tracking stock for AOL that gives it the currency it needs to do deals. Those might not be the only solutions, but they would be a good start for two stocks that don't want to be hitting 52-week lows.

The good news is that neither of these stocks closed on 52-week lows and already today both are higher. TWX is up a mere two cents to $18.13 at 2 PM. But TWC is up 69 cents to $32.82 (2.15%).

If Time Warner (TWX) stakes are being sold, send them to Joe Q. Public

It appears that Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) may actually be considering a sell-back of a small stake in Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) according to an Associated Press report from last night.

This morning Reuters added some information. The board of directors of Time Warner Cable appointed a special committee to look into any proposal that Time Warner might make on its 12.43% stake. This stake was valued at roughly $2.9 billion back in 2005. If this occurs, it will be financed from the Cable company's revolving credit facility or by accessing debt. Time Warner would apparently still hold an 84% stake in the cable operator if the filing information is accurate.

But there is another thought here. It may be a bit Panglossian, but still worth a visit. Time Warner Inc. probably has a second wave of a restructuring in the not too distant future, or so I have speculated (actually, I believe it inevitable and as logical as Ireland being green). Shares of Time Warner Cable are down to $32.79, down from $43.25. The cable company should not take on the debt. The average daily trading volume is barely 1.2 million shares (about $40 million worth of stock trading per day). Its rival Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) trades close to 20 million shares per day (over $400 million worth of stock).

The company could allow these to make the necessary conversions and it could be added to the free float on the exchange. While it is dilutive to existing shareholders, it would at least get that low float higher. Its $29.6 billion in market cap is far lower if you consider the free float in the stock.

Time Warner (TWX) unit is pondering the future of ... Time Warner

After looking through some web postings internally, there was a very interesting article regarding Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) that can be indirectly inferred to Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE:TWC) and all units of the media conglomerate. The article "For Time Warner, a time to break up?" is available on the CNNMoney.com website, but is really a FORTUNE Magazine article. FORTUNE and CNN are both properties of Time Warner Inc.

The article is basically predicting that Jeff Bewkes will soon replace Dick Parsons as the Chairman & CEO of the parent company. It also points to a recent anvil weighing on the transition -- the sagging stock price of Time Warner. The truth is that the first real wave of the transition took hold in 2006 when the company separated Time Warner Cable and used financial leverage to buy back billions of dollars worth of stock. That buyback did continue, but 2006 was the year the buyback was felt the most as the stock rose nearly 50% from its lows.

While the article does not call for major changes, it notes how Time Warner produces more cash flow than its rivals, although News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) have outperformed as stocks. The article goes on to mention that Bewkes has noted that other media break-ups may not be yielding much upside, and that he agrees with Parsons for now that the combined entity is worth more than the pieces as unaffiliated entities.

Regardless of the many twists and turns in the article, this seemed odd coming out of FORTUNE. I laid out my own scenario where the company could float a portion of AOL as a tracking stock, a scenario that still seems quite likely. Rather than an entire spin-out of the cable assets, it seems to me that the media giant should at least maintain a large stake (if not an outright 50% plus 1 vote majority) in the cable company, and that any analyst calls to the contrary are misplaced. It is easy to call for break-ups in a bull market to unlock more value, but there are many more defensive and stabilizing strategies for a giant to weather harder times.

Time Warner (TWX) gets a thumbs up from Lehman Brothers

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is seeing a small gain today because of bullish comments in a research note from Lehman Brothers, which reinitiated coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating.

Lehman Brothers sees numerous catalysts that could raise the stock beyond its current valuation. It also addresses Time Warner's potential break-up value. Lehman thinks that the logical moves could include complete separation of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), or a tax free sale or spinoff of its publishing assets. Another option is to publicly float a minority stake in AOL, or perhaps the internet unit may merge with another leading Internet player like Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) or even Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) MSN, Lehman says.

Anyone who has read much on Time Warner in BloggingStocks, is quite familiar with analysts call to set AOL as its own public company, or have a minority interest to be traded, like the old 'tracking stock' model. TWX shares are up 14 cents, or 0.77%, to $18.14 in early afternon trading.

Time Warner (TWX): No catalyst or no leadership? Some comparisons

The Mothership, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), owner of AOL, Time Inc., Warner Brothers studios and this site has been going nowhere fast. TWX was one of the first stocks I ever bought (and sold) 25 years ago. I re-acquired TWX after the bubble collapsed the market and from that point about six years ago I am up over 50%. However those gains came early, buying in at $12.10. The stock has been treading water for three years closing yesterday at $18.61. The chart below indicates TWX was at that level in 2004.


At one point the stock was infused with excitement when Carl Icahn bought a substantial amount of shares and pushed for major changes. The stock went up through January 2007 and has been meandering back down ever since. During this time the company has bought back shares, reduced debt, closed its cable deal (spinning off Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC)), produced some successful movies, sold some under-performing businesses including magazine interests and increased shareholder equity. But the stock lags the market and is down for the year even though it has some strong metrics, like a price-to-book value of 1.32 (LFY).

Continue reading Time Warner (TWX): No catalyst or no leadership? Some comparisons

Analyst initiations 8-31-07: STP, PCS and CRL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Suntech Power (STP), MetroPCS (PCS), Micron Tech (MU) and Charles River Labs (CRL) were today's noteworthy initiations:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Gabelli initiated shares of Tenaris SA (NYSE: TS) with a Buy rating and $68 target.
  • RBC Capital started shares of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) with a Sector Perform rating and $39 target.
  • CDC Corporation (NASDAQ: CHINA) was started at ThinkEquity with a Buy rating and $11 target.
  • Suntrust started shares of Owens Corning (NYSE: OC) with a Neutral rating.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations: CMCSA, CMVT, CNET and TWC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner Cable (TWC), CNet Networks (CNET), Coviden (COV) and I.D. Systems (IDSY) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Stanford started CNet (NASDAQ: CNET) with a Buy rating and $10 target, as the company is well positioned to benefit from its developing web properties.
  • Bear Stearns expects shares of Covidien (NYSE: COV) to move up, starting shares with an Outperform rating, as the management transforms the company from a cash flow focused conglomerate division into a faster-growing, nimble competitor.
  • Merriman said I.D. Systems (NASDAQ: IDSY) is uniquely positioned in the wireless asset tracking market given its focus on industrial machinery and material handling equipment, starting shares with a Buy rating...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Comverse (OTC: CMVT) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Merriman.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

What's next for AOL at Time Warner?

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) enjoyed what turned out to be a great recovery in 2006. Progress has continued in 2007, but not enough to keep the stock on the rise. The recent market slide took shares back under $20 for essentially the first time this year, and now shares are down to around $18.75.

The earnings news wasn't the real issue here, and so far that $5 billion share buyback plan is largely ignored. So, here is a prediction from someone that is far from an insider but not completely an outsider (BloggingStocks is part of AOL Money & Finance).

I think AOL will become "AOL" on the NYSE again. Time Warner Inc. already spun out Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) as its own controlled entity. This isn't a true independent company though, as it actually represents more of the 'tracking stock' that we saw so much of in the late 1990's. In fact, this is exactly what EMC Corp. (NYSE:EMC) is doing in the partial IPO of VMware in two weeks.

Continue reading What's next for AOL at Time Warner?

LIVE BLOGGING: Time Warner earnings conference call

As previously noted this morning, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) did post gains on an EPS that were slightly ahead of expectations on revenues that were a tad under the estimates from First Call. The new $5 billion share buyback plan was to replace the recently completed $20 Billion share buyback plan. The company also reaffirmed $1.07 as its EPS target for the conglomerate. Going into the conference call, shares are down about 3.2% to $18.64.

At the start of the conference call, CEO & Chairman Dick Parsons reaffirmed 2007 OIBDA guidance and is maintaining growth at projections AOL and is maintaining its leverage. It reaffirmed $1.07 EPS for 2007, or $0.95 outside of items. Parsons also stated the following:

Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) is on track for objectives with more upside to come. The legacy footprint has growth and the Adelphia adds should grow. Cable will continue to be a growth generation for years to come.

Harry Potter has generated nearly $700 MILLION in worldwide sales already.

AOL is continuing to make progress for OIBDA growth, it also expects page view growth at AOL this year. This was the first quarter where page views grew, but there was a slowdown in ad growth as certain deals were winding down from the subscriber days. Email and search changes are building and increasing monetization. The team is satisfied with the results so far. Advertising is also seeing some shift to third party advertisers, but its advertising.com is seeing gains. The total AOL expectations are being stepped back from original projections that it will grow above the market rates
[that is the first time this has been stated]. It has relaunched the AOL homepage in a new format and is in the process of new finance and other pages. It has spent over $500 million in acquisitions over the last 16 (or 18) months to build the AOL franchise.

Continue reading LIVE BLOGGING: Time Warner earnings conference call

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