iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) March put option implied volatility is at 15, April is at 17, June is at 19, September is at 20, compared to its 26-week average of 16, according to Track Data, suggesting larger outer month price movement.

Bank of America (BAC) overall option implied volatility of 35 is near its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement into its March 8 analyst day.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

The activity in the Treasury market over the last couple of days has been eye opening to say the least. Bonds have been absolutely crushed, and the yield on the 10-Year note has exploded through the 3% level to 3.27%. On a very short-term basis, this move looks to be too much too soon, and Treasuries appear to be oversold. On a longer-term basis, this market may implode if credit and inflation concerns creep into the picture down the road -- not an unlikely outcome.

Observers are pointing to a number of factors that are causing yields to rise. Some market participants are viewing this development as an indicator that investors are beginning to price in more robust growth going into 2011. This would be a good thing. If this is in fact the case, a major stock market move could occur in very short order.

In the wake of the Fed's quantitative easing announcement, the Treasury market has broken down, suggesting that the run up in bond prices in the expectation of Fed buying was overdone.

Now may be the time to go short U.S. Treasury bonds, which remain at exceptionally high levels on a historical basis. Even after the sell-off, the 10-Year is still only yielding 2.93%.

Goldman Sachs (GS) was out with a note on Friday recommending that clients buy long-dated Treasuries ahead of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing announcement, which will take place on Wednesday.

Previously, the consensus was that the Fed would focus on shorter maturity bond purchases. Goldman, however, believes that the purchases will extend out to the 30-year bond.

Are you confused yet? On Monday, the U.S. equity markets added to the September rally after better-than-expected Chinese growth numbers and less- stringent-than-feared Basel III requirements. We are now sitting right at the top end of the summer range in the S&P at 1,122. Bearish speculators will know very soon if they are wrong. A close above the 1,125 to 1,130 level means it's time to cover. This provides a very high risk/reward entry point on the short side.

Yesterday's market action continues to confound. The S&P 500 climbed 1.11%, while Treasuries also rallied. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) jumped 0.49% to $102.82, despite the fact that this was supposedly a "risk on" day. Something is going to give. Either we are going to see a major, sustainable rally in equities, or there is going to be a savage sell-off. There is too much confusion right now.

Today was one of those days where the news was tied to more hope and a decent start to earnings season than over any great breaking global news. A barely-decent 10-Year Treasury auction was not showing anything rotten, and it seems that the corporate credit markets are starting to open back up. News on deficits being another $1 trillion held nothing back for stock gains. Can you believe it, six straight days of gains in stocks? Cramer coming back after a holiday and saying that the bottom of the market has been seen for the year may have also gotten some comfort back in the game from retail investors.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,363.02 +146.75 (1.44%)
S&P 500 1,095.28 +16.53 (1.53%)
Nasdaq 2,242.03 +43.67 (1.99%)

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The scramble is on. Investors are racing to move money from riskier, higher-yielding trades to more conservative investments. And just like we saw during the financial crisis of 2008, U.S. Treasuries seem to be the conservative investment of choice.

This flight to safety and increased demand for U.S. Treasuries is pushing prices higher, but you need to make sure you are investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide exposure to Treasuries with longer-term maturities if you want to take advantage of the boom.

If you've ever delved into investing in ETFs (exchange-traded funds, basically entire indexes and sectors that trade like stocks), you're already familiar with the most popular, those being Powershares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ), SPDR Trust Series 1 (AMEX: SPY), Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (AMEX: DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE: IWM) and lately Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF) and UltraShort QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QID). But have you ever looked into those that are much less followed, but more capable of yielding some big-time returns?

I primarily trade fun smallcap stocks, so until the past few days, I hadn't either. But when I began researching, I just kept finding more and more interesting ETFs -- it was addictive! Almost addictive as my new Twitter account where I've discovered I can chat with business legends, yesterday it was the founder of eBay Inc (Nasdaq: EBAY). Okay, maybe ETFs will never be that addictive!

Out the few hundred ETFs I looked into, here were some of the more interesting of the bunch:

Two weeks ago, in a post entitled, "Bonds: worth a shot in the near term?" I suggested that bond prices had fallen too far, too fast, and were due for a short-term technical bounce. As evidence, I cited oversold momentum readings, the nearness of long-term support levels, and heavy volume in the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond fund (AMEX: TLT), a proxy for the overall market.

Since then, prices have rebounded somewhat, with the exchange-traded fund rallying from $83.12 on June 14th to $84.30 at today's close. However, while I sense there could be a bit more upside in the near term, today's statement following the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve, gives cause for concern.

In essence, the FOMC signaled that policymakers still consider the threat of rising prices to be the central bank's primary focus, and suggested members see no "sustained" moderation in inflation pressures, according to reports. Those words triggered a round of selling in fixed-income markets, amid worries that liquidity might be constrained and short-term rates could be headed higher in future, contrary to expectations.

With my longer term view on bonds remaining decidedly negative, today's unhelpful Fed action, together with the fact that prices are no longer at oversold extremes, suggests that the upside is probably limited in the near term. Under the circumstances, it makes sense to shift to a more defensive stance.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

U.S. government bonds have plunged in recent weeks, dragged down by worries over inflation, rising interest rates overseas, an apparent buyer's strike by some foreign central banks, and hedging by traders in other fixed-income markets.

However, a number of technical indicators suggest the selling may be overdone, at least in the short-term.

Using the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (AMEX: TLT) as a proxy, the accompanying chart indicates that bond prices are near levels that have provided solid support over the past five years.

Volume has also spiked, suggesting that the most recent leg down represents a "selling climax" of some sort.

Finally, momentum, in the guise of 14-day RSI, a popular technical indicator, is at its lowest reading since the exchange-traded fund was first listed, signaling that that the market has likely gone too far, too fast.

While there are various signs that the long bull market in bonds could be over and that yields are now in the early stages of a secular uptrend, the immediate technical evidence nonetheless suggests that bond prices -- and the Treasury Bond ETF -- are poised for a decent bounce.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

How frequent are ultra-volatility days -- those during which the market moves 3% or more? More common than one might think.

Tom Dyson in Daily Wealth defines notes that ultra-volatile days -- or UVDs -- have occurred 115 times in the S&P 500 since 1950, or an average of two per year. Between 2002 and 2003, the S&P 500 had 21 UVDs. Over the same period, the Nasdaq experienced even more -- some 51 UVDs.

Says Dyson, "UVDs really aren't that extraordinary. And because they aren't, there's no need to change our investment strategies because of them. These things happen."

In fact, he notes, the only reason the press is making a big deal out of this one is because it had been a long time since we last saw one. The last UVD was in March 2003, nearly four years ago.