iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) March put option implied volatility is at 15, April is at 17, June is at 19, September is at 20, compared to its 26-week average of 16, according to Track Data, suggesting larger outer month price movement.

Bank of America (BAC) overall option implied volatility of 35 is near its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement into its March 8 analyst day.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury March Put Volatility Low at 15, September at 20 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Mar 2011 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Observers are pointing to a number of factors that are causing yields to rise. Some market participants are viewing this development as an indicator that investors are beginning to price in more robust growth going into 2011. This would be a good thing. If this is in fact the case, a major stock market move could occur in very short order.

Continue reading Bonds to Bounce Back?

Bonds to Bounce Back? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 09 Dec 2010 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading The Treasury Market Is Breaking Down

The Treasury Market Is Breaking Down originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Nov 2010 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Goldman Sachs (GS) was out with a note on Friday recommending that clients buy long-dated Treasuries ahead of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing announcement, which will take place on Wednesday.

Previously, the consensus was that the Fed would focus on shorter maturity bond purchases. Goldman, however, believes that the purchases will extend out to the 30-year bond.

Continue reading Frontrunning The Fed: Buy Long-Dated Treasuries

Frontrunning The Fed: Buy Long-Dated Treasuries originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 31 Oct 2010 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Bearish? Try on the iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF

Bearish? Try on the iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 14 Sep 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Almost 700 DJIA Points in 6 Trading Days (ADCT, TEL, AA, AAPL, MBI, RSH, TLT)

Closing Bell: Almost 700 DJIA Points in 6 Trading Days (ADCT, TEL, AA, AAPL, MBI, RSH, TLT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jul 2010 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The scramble is on. Investors are racing to move money from riskier, higher-yielding trades to more conservative investments. And just like we saw during the financial crisis of 2008, U.S. Treasuries seem to be the conservative investment of choice.

This flight to safety and increased demand for U.S. Treasuries is pushing prices higher, but you need to make sure you are investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide exposure to Treasuries with longer-term maturities if you want to take advantage of the boom.

Continue reading TLT: Profit from the Flight to Safety with Treasury Bond Fund

TLT: Profit from the Flight to Safety with Treasury Bond Fund originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 20 May 2010 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading ETFs every investor should know

ETFs every investor should know originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Two weeks ago, in a post entitled, "Bonds: worth a shot in the near term?" I suggested that bond prices had fallen too far, too fast, and were due for a short-term technical bounce. As evidence, I cited oversold momentum readings, the nearness of long-term support levels, and heavy volume in the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond fund (AMEX: TLT), a proxy for the overall market.

Since then, prices have rebounded somewhat, with the exchange-traded fund rallying from $83.12 on June 14th to $84.30 at today's close. However, while I sense there could be a bit more upside in the near term, today's statement following the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve, gives cause for concern.

In essence, the FOMC signaled that policymakers still consider the threat of rising prices to be the central bank's primary focus, and suggested members see no "sustained" moderation in inflation pressures, according to reports. Those words triggered a round of selling in fixed-income markets, amid worries that liquidity might be constrained and short-term rates could be headed higher in future, contrary to expectations.

With my longer term view on bonds remaining decidedly negative, today's unhelpful Fed action, together with the fact that prices are no longer at oversold extremes, suggests that the upside is probably limited in the near term. Under the circumstances, it makes sense to shift to a more defensive stance.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

The upside may now be limited in bonds originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Jun 2007 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

U.S. government bonds have plunged in recent weeks, dragged down by worries over inflation, rising interest rates overseas, an apparent buyer's strike by some foreign central banks, and hedging by traders in other fixed-income markets.

However, a number of technical indicators suggest the selling may be overdone, at least in the short-term.

Using the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (AMEX: TLT) as a proxy, the accompanying chart indicates that bond prices are near levels that have provided solid support over the past five years.

Volume has also spiked, suggesting that the most recent leg down represents a "selling climax" of some sort.

Finally, momentum, in the guise of 14-day RSI, a popular technical indicator, is at its lowest reading since the exchange-traded fund was first listed, signaling that that the market has likely gone too far, too fast.

While there are various signs that the long bull market in bonds could be over and that yields are now in the early stages of a secular uptrend, the immediate technical evidence nonetheless suggests that bond prices -- and the Treasury Bond ETF -- are poised for a decent bounce.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Bonds: worth a shot in the near term? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 Jun 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

How frequent are ultra-volatility days -- those during which the market moves 3% or more? More common than one might think.

Tom Dyson in Daily Wealth defines notes that ultra-volatile days -- or UVDs -- have occurred 115 times in the S&P 500 since 1950, or an average of two per year. Between 2002 and 2003, the S&P 500 had 21 UVDs. Over the same period, the Nasdaq experienced even more -- some 51 UVDs.

Says Dyson, "UVDs really aren't that extraordinary. And because they aren't, there's no need to change our investment strategies because of them. These things happen."

In fact, he notes, the only reason the press is making a big deal out of this one is because it had been a long time since we last saw one. The last UVD was in March 2003, nearly four years ago.

Continue reading Market hedges: Two liquid stocks you need to own

Market hedges: Two liquid stocks you need to own originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Mar 2007 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.