Telmex (NYSE: TMX) is expected to report Q1 EPS today. TMX May option implied volatility of 43 is below its 26-week average of 50, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) closed at $10.32. SFD says it found no evidence of swine influenza at its Mexican joint ventures. SFD May option implied volatility of 102 is below its 26-week average of 112, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Neutral after its channel checks indicated a modest increase in ad spend per client in March. The upgrade is based on early indications that search pricing and ad spend are stabilizing, search volume continuing to grow at a double-digit rate, and Merriman's belief that consensus estimates are now at reasonable levels.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to Hold from Sell and raised its price target to $8 from $7.30 following the company's asset sales in March as it believes the financial overhang on the stock has been removed.
  
• Suntrust said Providence Service (NASDAQ: PRSC) has returned to profitability through demand stabilization for social services and cost controls. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• Telmex (NYSE: TMX) was upgraded to Neutral from Undeperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein.
  
• Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) was lifted to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Neutral from Sell as they believe consensus estimates for Q4 and FY09 are no longer too high. In addition, the firm believes Google's slowing capex spend will improve margins and their recent channel checks indicate the company's ad coverage has increased significantly during Q4.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Outperform from Perform following yesterday's disclosures regarding Steve Jobs' health. The firm has a $135 price target on Apple shares.
  
• UBS upgraded BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $31 from $28 citing easier booking comps in the March quarter.
• YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
  
• Goldman removed Hewitt (NYSE: HEW) from its Conviction Sell List.

Analyst downgrades:

• Stephens downgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation, as they believe the stock is fairly valued at current levels. The firm maintains a $39 price target.
  
• Merriman downgraded Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to Neutral from Buy after Super Micro pre-announced a Q2 miss to reflect the company's "challenging" outlook.
  
• Baird downgraded Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) to Neutral from Outperform citing Revlimid growth concerns following their most recent survey and potential pressures on the European business and on Thalomid.
• Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink.
  
• Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) was cut at Goldman to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.

Analyst initiations:

• Merriman believes Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) is well-positioned to benefit from the upgrade to Advanced Metering Infrastructure by tier one utilities and finds the stock attractively valued. Shares were initiated with a Neutral rating.
  
• Oppenheimer assumed Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) with a Perform rating and expects the company's growth to slow in 2009 given global credit concerns and the economic slowdown.
  
• Citigroup started Telmex (NYSE: TMX) with a Sell rating and $15 target. The firm believes the company's inability to offer 3-play services could lead to accelerated market share loss in 2009.
• Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was initiated at Janney Montgomery with a Neutral rating and $31 fair value estimate.
  
• Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.
  
• Jesup & Lamont assumed UTi Worldwide (NASDAQ: UTIW) with a Buy rating and $18 target.

Nippon Telephone (NYSE: NTT), a Japanese based telecommunications company, closed at $24.17 Thursday. NTT January option implied volatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

China Telecom (NYSE: CHA), a provider of wireline telecommunication services in China, closed at $39 Thursday. Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating on CHA. CHA overall option implied volatility of 91 is above its 26-week average of 60 according to Chicago, suggesting larger price movement.

Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT), Europe's largest telecommunications carrier by sales, closed at $13.99 Thursday. DT January option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.

Telmex (NYSE: TMX), an operator of wireline telecommunication systems in Mexico, closed at $17.28 Thursday. TMX December option implied volatility of 66 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Telmex (NYSE: TMX) said second quarter profit fell 13% after more customers switched to wireless service.

Goldman Sachs says: "Maintain Telmex Sell on 2Q08 sales drop + margin squeeze."

TMX August option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) closed at $25.80 Tuesday.

MSFT is hosting an analyst day on July 24.

MSFT August option implied volatility of 28 is below its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Mexican businessman Carlos Slim Helú is believed to be the richest man in the world. As chairman of Teléfonos de Mexico, better known as Telmex (NYSE: TMX) and América Móvil (NYSE: AMX), Slim has substantial influence over the telecommunications industry in Mexico, and much of Latin America as well.

The past year has been good to Slim. In the spring, with an estimated net worth of $53.1 billion, he overtook investing guru Warren Buffett as the world's second richest person. By the end of the summer, Fortune reported that Slim's net worth had grown to $59 billion, allowing him to overtake Microsoft founder Bill Gates as the world's wealthiest person.

Carlos Slim's personal wealth grew by $12 billion during the year, and he also controls a $150 billion business empire. His family's holdings represented more than 5% of Mexico's 2006 gross domestic product, and Slim-controlled companies made up one-third of the $422 billion Mexican stock exchange.

With his political connections and business savvy, Slim has managed to fend off accusations of monopolistic business practices for years, but the hammer may finally be about to fall. A probe of Carlos Slim's empire by Mexican antitrust regulators is scheduled to ramp up in the new year. Will 2008 see his empire crumble?

A trio of leading advisors are looking outside the US for opportnity in the telecom sector: Nick Vardy sees potential with Telefonica S.A. (NYSE: TEF), David Fried looks south of the border to Telefonos de Mexico (NYSE: TMX) and Dave Dyer recommends the more diversified Emerging Markets Telecommunications Fund (ASE: ETF).

In his Global Bull Market Alert, Nick Vardy explains, "Spanish telecom group Telefonica S.A. is like a corporate conquistador, exploiting its historical links to expand into Latin America. This new Spanish explorer is reaping rich profits for itself and its shareholders.

"Telefonica's global footprint extends across three continents and 23 countries with a total population of 670 million. This conquistador planted its first flag in Latin America 15 years ago and today is the leading telecom in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru.

"For an organization that is already the fifth-biggest telecom company in the world with close to 207 million customers, Telefonica's profits are still expanding at a breathtaking rate.

"Just recently, Telefonica announced that its third-quarter net profit rose 39% year-on-year. Overall, net profit jumped to €4.02 billion from €2.9 billion a year earlier. Also important to us, Telefonica is a stock that has held up remarkably well despite the recent market jitters, recently hitting a record high. We recommend buying the shares at market."

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Antofagasta plc, Merrill Lynch, Valueclick, Telmex and Network Appliance were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• UBS upgraded shares of Antofagasta (OTC: ANFGY) to Neutral from Sell as they see a strong possibility of delays to copper supply due to an earthquake on Nov. 14 in northern Chile.
  
• Credit Suisse is positive on the appointment of John Thain as Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER)'s CEO and his ability to get the company back on track strategically. The firm upgraded shares of Merrill to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• Valueclick (NASDAQ: VCLK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup on valuation, as they believe the recent sell-off provides a great entry point.
  
• Citigroup also raised its rating on Telmex (NYSE: TMX) to Buy from Hold after the company announced the spin-off of its international businesses.
  
• Bear Stearns upgraded Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Peer Perform from Underperform following its Q2 report and increased outlook.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• RBC Capital upgraded Sciele Pharma (NASDAQ: SCRX) to Sector Perform from Underperform.
  
• Lehman upgraded Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
  
• W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  
• Merrill Lynch upgraded Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) to Buy from Neutral.

ANFGY;MER;VCLK;TMX;NTAP;SCRX;AMGN;GWW;WY

For his latest recommendation, buyback specialist David Fried is following Carlos Slim – who just past Bill Gates to be the world's richest man.

Telefonos de Mexico (NYSE: TMX), majority controlled by Slim, is the latest buy from The Buyback Letter.

Based in Mexico City, Telmex, as it is commonly called, controls more than 95% of Mexico's fixed-line telephone market and is a major provider of long-distance services, notes Fried. Telefonos de Mexico, he sates, is the leading telecommunications company in Mexico, with more than 15 million telephone lines in service and more than 1 million Internet access accounts.

Fried explains, "It is currently positioned as the regional market leader in telecommunications, and in recent years has bought telephone, cable and data transmission assets in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

Formerly owned by the Mexican government, the advisor notes, Telmex was privatized in 1990 and is now majority controlled by billionaire magnate Carlos Slim, the world's third richest man.

Says Fried, "Slim is quite a character, and aside from the sheer magnitude of his $49 billion fortune, he also gained the most wealth in the last year ($19 billion). Slim has also invested in cigarettes, real estate, soda bottling, auto parts, and insurance, and, of course, made a fortune in telecom."

He continues, "Slim also is branching out to other countries. In 2005, Telmex spent $350 million to acquire the majority stake in Colombia's biggest phone company, and bought Chilean mobile telecom Smartcom for $472 million."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates -- net worth: $59.2 billion -- is no longer the world's wealthiest person. According to the HeraldSun, Mexico's Carlos Slim -- net worth: $67.8 billion -- now sits in that throne. In April, Slim surpassed Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s (NYSE: BRK.A) CEO Warren Buffett as the world's second richest person. And today, Slim surpasses Gates.

How must Gates feel? I don't know. He has commented in the past that he doesn't think about being the world's wealthiest person much. But he has occupied that throne since 1995. After 12 years, there could be a twinge of regret at having lost the crown. But Gates still has plenty of money, particularly since Buffett contributed a huge chunk of his fortune to Gates' foundation.

Meanwhile how did Slim climb so fast? A 27% surge in the share price of America Movil (NYSE: AMX), Latin America's largest mobile phone operator controlled by Slim, from March to June enabled Slim to surpass Gates by $8.6 billion. The 5.7% increase in Microsoft stock in the second quarter was no match for the sharp rise in valuations of Slim's companies. He also owns shares of Telefonos de Mexico (NYSE: TMX) up 11% and Grupo Financiero Inbursa S.A. (MXK: GFINBURO) up 20%.

While I don't have earnings forecasts to evaluate Inbursa, it's not too late to consider buying in to Slim's other companies.

• American Movil. AMX's PEG of 1 -- based on a P/E of 26.2 on earnings growth of 26% to $4.22 in 2008 -- looks reasonable to me.
• Telmex. TMX's PEG of 2.5 -- based on a P/E of 12 on earnings growth of 4.9% to $3.31 in 2008 -- looks expensive to me -- I'd avoid this one.

It's not every day that a king gets dethroned. The market is sending a signal that might be worth heeding.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.

It was what thousands of parents of whiny kids were waiting for. Out of the blue, the Tickle-Me-Elmo floodgates are open and (among others) Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) makes oodles of TMX Elmo dolls available on the company's web site. From an, umm, "hidden cache." According to Heather, a TMX Elmo searcher in my office, she finally discovered an Elmo available "suddenly" from Fisher Price. Another warehouse abruptly appear out of the fog in El Segundo? (Do they have fog in El Segundo?)


All at once, eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) listings are everywhere, 22,446 results for my search for "TMX Elmo" and not just lots of results but falling prices. When I first checked around 10:45 a.m. there were dozens of listings closing around $5 or $10 over the suggested retail price of $39.99. 20 minutes later, when I was finishing up this piece? It was more like $5 or $10 under the suggested retail price. The Spanish version was going for a ridiculously cheap $26.55. Market floodage has commenced.

When Black Friday was approaching and customers were gearing up for their long wait in line to be one of the few, the proud, the early purchasers of TMX Elmo dolls, a few less festive souls whispered of "artificial shortages" and wondered if Mattel was purposely creating a frenzy over the toys. Most parents and eBay sellers accused them of a distinct lack of holiday spirit, and oh yeah, not enough capitalism.

On the 10th anniversary of it's fabled 1996 launch and subsequent rise to notoriety as the most sought after toy for 1996, at least 100 Tickle-Me Elmos have gone missing. More specifically 100+ T.M.X. Elmos (10th anniversary edition) went missing on Oct. 31 while en route to a Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) location in Betonville, Ark.

While the 100+ missing Elmos won't adversely affect Wal-Mart's bottom line, its the consumer sentiment that Wal-Mart is concerned with.

As the holiday season nears, shoppers begin to exhibit zealousness in obtaining the "fad" toys for the year. If Wal-Mart is seen to be lacking the "hot" toys for the year, it could easily find its customers scouring the shelves of competitors like Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT).

The T.M.X. Elmo is on industry benchmark Toy Wishes annual "Hot Dozen" and already making headlines with tales of armed muggings for the doll.

While Wal-Mart has offered a "reward," no specific amount has been announced yet. Though if 1996 was any gauge and demand outstrips supply again, market value per doll could easily break the $1000 mark.

Though they cater to a different market segment, the other major items to watch for this holiday season are the Wii from Nintendo and the PS3 from Sony which have already garnered enough attention for eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) to post a special set of rules regarding auctioning these items.

[Photo via Fischer-Price]

Just when I thought some parents couldn't act any loonier, the venerable Tickle-Me-Elmo doll has made a strong comeback in popularity, as Mattel, Inc. (NYSE:MAT) designed TMX Elmo (that's Tickle Me Extreme) for the 2006 holiday selling season. Many of you may remember the Cabbage Patch Doll craze of the 1980s, and I remember watching newspaper ads go up left and right for those dolls, asking thousands of dollars.

Parents would rush out to buy all they could, with the intention of re-selling the dolls for a profit. Times have not changed at all -- just the medium. EBay has now replaced the local classified ads and other physical mediums to ensure top dollar is made for goods that are high in demand -- but low in the supply side.

The holiday season each year is a study in standard economics, with hot sellers, especially those with surprise popularity, demonstrating the supply and demand pricing theories that have been found in economics textbooks for over a century of not much, much longer.

The TMX Elmo doll, whose predecessor was a holiday gift sensation just a decade ago, is back with its eXtreme 10th-anniversary edition. And unsurprisingly, eBay to explode a little with the new dolls going for $5,000 and more. I wonder if there will be an "11th anniversary" edition. Heh.