Analyst Upgrades

• Disney (DIS) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Pike Electric (PIKE) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Kindred Healthcare (KND) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• UBS (UBS) to hold from sell at Canaccord.
• Avery Dennison (AVY) and Take-Two (TTWO) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Mercer (MERC) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BB&T (BBT) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• D.R. Horton (DHI) upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Meritage Homes (MTH), Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) and Heartland Payment (HPY) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Hershey (HSY) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• UnitedHealth (UNH), Cigna (CI) and Allscripts (MDRX) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Nationwide Health (NHP) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Reynolds American (RAI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Adtran (ADTN), PG&E (PCG) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

"Home Prices Are About to Bottom" was the headline for the Barron's cover story the week of July 14, 2008. The story explained that the housing market should level off in many areas of the country by the end of the year.

I have made some equally unfortunate prognostications in my tenure at BloggingStocks, so my purpose is not to poke fun at Barron's but to point out that here we are, over two years later, and it is still debatable whether the housing market has bottomed out.

Bearish sentiment is nearly palpable as Toll Brothers (TOL) prepares to unveil its fiscal third-quarter results. Ahead of the open on Wednesday, Toll Brothers is expected to report a quarterly loss of 14 cents per share -- significantly improved from the homebuilder's year-ago deficit of $2.93 per share.

The company has a dismal track record in the earnings spotlight though, having fallen short of Wall Street's consensus expectations in three of the past four reporting periods. And, judging by recent increases in short interest and buy-to-open put volume, traders are bracing for another disappointing report from Toll Brothers.

Toll Brothers (TOL) closed down 50 cents to $16.60. TOL is expected to report Q3 EPS on August 25. September put option implied volatility is at 41, December is at 44; verses its 26-week average of 41, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional near term price movement.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed down 58 cents to $10.78. WTI Crude Futures are recently down 1.35% to $74.40 according to Bloomberg. DAL call option volume of 11K contracts compares to put volume of 11K contracts. September put option implied volatility is at 52, December is at 57; near its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Everybody has been wondering what was going to happen to homebuilders once the Federal government's tax credit expired at the end of April. Well, we're starting to find out, and the picture doesn't look good.

Goldman Sachs has downgraded the entire Homebuilders industry from Attractive to Neutral, dropped MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC) from its Conviction Buy List and dropped its price targets on 10 stocks in the industry.

And really, who can blame them?

We've seen new home sales plunge from 504K in April -- right before the tax credit expired -- to 300K in May. We've also watched housing starts and applications for new building permits dry up. Plus, it is getting harder and harder for individuals to qualify for a loan.

Toll Brothers (TOL - option chain) stock is traded lower Thursday after the company said in an update that it expects total net signed contracts in the third quarter of this year to be less than those signed in the previous quarter due to seasonal trends. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TOL.

Thursday, TOL opened at $18.49. In early trading, the stock hit a high of $18.70 and a low of $17.78. As of 12:20, TOL was trading at $17.99, down $0.79 (-4.2%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and S&P gives TOL a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

It looks like John Paulson wants to get ahead of the crowd. He and other large homebuilders are buying prime building lots in states like Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

The big players like Lennar Corp (LEN), Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF), KB Home (KBH), DR Horton (DHI) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are all grabbing lots at bargain basement prices.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) strong Q3 results topped analysts expectations, and it offered Q4 earnings guidance.
• Cascade Corp. (CASC) reported a surprise Q3 profit but lower revenue fell short of expectations.
• Collective Brands Inc. (PSS) reported strong Q3 earnings as well as same-store sales growth.
• Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) narrowed its net loss in Q3 but revenue and same-stores sales declined.
• Del Monte Foods Co. (DLM) posted strong Q2 results and raised its earnings outlook for the full year.
• Diamond Foods Inc. (DMND) posted better-than-expected Q1 earnings, but said that revenue declined.

Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) reported Thursday that its net loss from continuing operations for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 came to $22.3 million, or $1.01 per share, compared to a net loss of $24.0 million, or $1.09 per share, last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a loss of $1.10 per share. Cost Plus also said net sales for the quarter totaled $181.9 million, a 10.4% decrease from the year-ago period. Same store sales for the quarter decreased 9.1% due in part to lower furniture sales and a relatively flat customer count.

Diamond Foods Inc. (DMND) reported a record profit of $0.88 per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2010. That was 38% higher than a year ago and topped the analysts' consensus forecast of $0.81 per share. Net sales for the quarter came to $180.6 million, 8% lower than in the prior year, due in part to a late walnut crop harvest. Diamond's forecast for the fiscal year are EPS of $1.72 to $1.82 and revenue of $585 million to $605 million, which is in line with analysts' expectations.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) lower Q3 results still topped expectations and sent shares higher.
• Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) posted much better-than-expected Q4 earnings, the first profit in a year.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) received an analyst's downgrade due to concerns over its earnings prospects.
• Blackstone Group (BX) received an analyst's upgrade following the company's Q3 results.
• Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) widened its net loss in Q3 and revenue and same-stores sales declined.
• Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) shares declined after its Q3 numbers fell short of expectations.
• Consolidated Water Co. Inc. (CWCO) earnings prospects for 2010 earned it an analyst upgrade.

TOL opened this morning at $20.14. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.00 and a high of $21.47. As of 11:40, TOL is trading at $21.13 up $2.74 (14.9%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and S&P gives TOL a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says stocks connected to the sector will take it on the chin if the housing index falls further.

A perusal of the charts this weekend shows something surprising: The weakest group out there has been the homebuilders for several weeks now. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) (Cramer's Take), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) have simply been a horror show. What's going on here? How can these stocks be so dangerous when mortgage rates have crashed through 5%, the level that every banker I talk to says mortgages jump off the table and refinancings rush to be done.

What's going on? This group's tracking more than just mortgage rates. It's tracking employment and news flow and both are terrible.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Q2 profit fell short of estimates as same-store sales declined.
• Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) Q2 earnings beat very low expectations and same-store sales fell.
• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) reported better-than-expected numbers for Q2, sending shares upward.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit though revenue declined.
• China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. posted a record Q2 profit after restrictions on fuel prices were lifted.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) said its Q2 earnings declined, but they still topped analysts' expectations.

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is scheduled to discuss its fiscal third-quarter 2009 results tomorrow in a conference call at 2:00 PM ET hosted by CEO Robert I. Toll. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

Recent good news about the housing sector ought to be good news for homebuilders such as Toll Brothers. Yet, for the three months that ended July 31, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the Pennsylvania-based company to report that its net loss widened to $1.74 per share from $0.18 per share a year ago. That largely due to the fact that revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 42.3% to $460.2 million, because of of falling home prices, tighter mortgage lending standards, and rising unemployment.