I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK), first recommended on February 10, 2009 at a price of $32.88. If you bought SWK in February, you're up more than 39%.

Institutional investors (IIs) have bid-up Stanley's shares practically all year, on likely better-than-expected emerging market GDP growth and a firming U.S. economy.

Today was an odd day considering that the bond traders were out and banks were closed for Columbus Day. There were gains most of the day ahead of earnings season, but we came down substantially off the highs. It still feels like the DJIA will crack 10,000, but the trading is getting choppy as we enter what may be the biggest earnings season in a couple years for growth investors.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,885.80 +20.86 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,076.18 +4.69 (0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,139.14 -0.14 (-0.01%)

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If you prudently bottom-fished Black & Decker back in April, you're up a solid 35%.

BDK isn't as cheap as it was then, but given likely, increasing international demand, a chance for an out-sized gain is still possible, which is why I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK), first recommended on April 17, 2009 at a price of about $33.

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK), first recommended on February 10, 2009, at a price of $32.88.

New Britain, Conn.-based Stanley manufactures tools for professional, industrial, and consumer use, and has built a business model that's been successful for more than a hundred years. A security solutions unit accounts for about 30% of revenue, but the key revenue driver here is tools: hammers, screwdrivers, sockets, saws, and measuring tape, among other products.

It goes without saying that this market remains a market for the bold only. There are some 'greens shoots' sprouting in the economy, to cite a phrase popularized by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but there still are formidable problems.

That said, no one ever made a dime by establishing stock positions when things were 99% safe: by that time, almost every stock has been bid-up. You have to prudently-bottom fish, and with this in mind, Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) is worth a review.

Can one make the case for easing back into the U.S. stock market?

The U.S. recession continues, and it's likely to continue through at least Q2, and probably through Q3. Meanwhile, credit market conditions, while they've improved since last fall, they're still constrained.

Further, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced Tuesday that the United States government will commit up to an additional $2 trillion to encourage new lending and remove toxic assets in an effort to end the credit crunch.

Many investors know about the key metrics that provide clues regarding the U.S. economy's health, and where it's likely to head, near-term.

Retail sales, housing starts, UPS (NYSE: UPS) / Fed Ex (NYSE: FDX) deliveries and, of course, those infamous corrugated box orders, all provide clues about demand at the retail and wholesale levels, and are positively correlated with increases in U.S. GDP.

Then there are those lower-profile metrics that experienced investors monitor -- and new investors are highly recommended to do so, as well. One such metric: Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) and on Thursday the hardware and tool giant provided yet another bearish data point for the U.S economy and stock market.

New Britain, Conn.-based Stanley lowered 2008 full-year earnings guidance to $3.30-$3.40 per share, down about 35-45 cents from previous guidance, and also announced it would lay-off 2,000 employees, or about 10% of its work force, citing rapidly deteriorating business conditions. Further, Stanley said "economic conditions remain too variable to warrant issuing formal 2009 guidance at this time."

The Reuters 2008 EPS consensus estimate for Stanley is $4.30. Stanley's shares Thursday closed down $2.02 to $32.30.

Sectors of the economy may be coming apart at the seams, but Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST), distributor of nuts, bolts and all kinds of tools, is holding together nicely. Fastenal reported strong numbers for 2Q 2008. Net sales increased 16% to $604,000. (Hey, I never said this stock would topple Home Depot). More importantly, net earnings increased 26% to $76,000 and diluted EPS increased 25% to $0.51. As part of its "Pathway to Profit Initiative," Fastenal opened 112 new stores in Q1 & Q2, bringing total store locations to over 2100.

Like most other businesses, Fastenal has been hit by both the slowdown in the construction industry and the rapid rise in fuel costs. The company is reorganizing its freight service to take advantage of fuel and cost savings by using its own trucking network rather than external service providers. Additionally, the company established a centralized call center to manage accounts receivable company-wide. As a result, accounts receivable increased 14% at the same time the company reduced its bad debt expense. Fastenal repurchased 200,000 shares with plans to buy back more. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share. YTD the stock has gained 14% and currently trades around $46. This one is worth a look.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Black & Decker is worth a review.

The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) is a global manufacturer and marketer of power tools and accessories, hardware, home improvement products, and fastening systems.

In general, analysts like BDK's recent restructuring to improve productivity and operating margins. For the most part, analysts are forecasting low-single-digit sales growth for 2008 and 2009, weighed down by the housing sector's doldrums.

The market's recent pullback has created several moderate-risk, bargain-basement-price stocks, and one worth an evaluation is Black & Decker.

The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) is a global manufacturer and marketer of power tools and accessories, hardware, home improvement products, and fastening systems.

Analysts expect BDK's recent restructuring to improve productivity and operating margins. In general, analysts are forecasting low-single-digit sales growth for 2008 and 2009, weighed down by the housing sector's doldrums.
Meanwhile, BDK's fastening/assembly unit business should improve somewhat, offsetting housing's likely sub-par performance, and register mid-single-digit sales growth. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for BDK are $1.14 to $1.57.

Tool supplier Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) remains optimistic about earnings into 2008, despite deterioration of the U.S. homebuilding market. Even in 4Q2007, when the domestic construction market softened like warm butter, Stanley Works managed to post more than respectable earnings. 4Q sales increased 15% to $1.2 billion. Diluted EPS increased 7% to $1.11, operating margins increased and free cash flow increased 89% from 4Q2006.

4Q2007 was a tough quarter in the U.S., as subprime mortgage losses ran into the billions, banks tightened credit, and construction slowed dramatically. Despite the meltdown in the U.S. market, Stanley posted double-digit sales increases in all its international markets, which helped to offset slower sales in the U.S. The story is the same for FY2007.

Overall, the company is in good shape with net sales up 12% to $4.5 billion, although only 2% of that growth is organic. More than half of the increase was due to acquisitions. FY2007 diluted EPS increased 15% to $4.00, and free cash flow increased by $99 million to $457 million. Despite forecasting an organic growth rate of 0-1%, CEO John Lundgren states that Stanley Works is well positioned to withstand a possible U.S. recession.

With the markets in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio. The Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) is worth a review.

Stanley manufactures tools for professional, industrial, and consumer use, and has built a business model that's been successful for more than a hundred years. A security solutions unit accounts for about 20% of revenue, but the key revenue driver here is tools: hammers, screwdrivers, pliers, sockets, saws, and measuring instruments, among other products.

Stanley has endured due to the company's diversified product line, outstanding pricing framework (matching value to price), discipline regarding costs, and durability of its products. That, not surprisingly, has led to a superior brand reputation, which the company has adeptly marketed abroad: about 40% of sales are international-based. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SWK are $4.01 to $4.50.

Looking for the perfect gift for the husband, dad, or grown son on your list? My advice: Skip the clothing racks and go straight for the hardware aisles. Another tie, sweater or pair of pajamas reeks of domesticity, comfort and a kind of quiet fading into the sunset. Instead, set his pulse to racing with a gift that shows you think he's a real man, a take-charge kind of guy, king of his castle and all that.

Some high-quality tools should do the trick. And, at these prices -- a leaked Sears circular indicates half-off sales for Craftsman tools -- quality tools are a great investment. How about a new socket wrench set, grip sander or miter saw? BFads.com is showing that you can purchase a DeWalt Heavy Duty Grip Sander for $29.99 with rebate at Ace Hardware.

The trick is to get tools that are so cool that he'll be happy to have them even if he never plans on using them. No home should be without a really nice cordless electric drill, for example. Shop at Big Lots on Black Friday and you can pick up a Stanley 150-piece "Fast Change Drill and Drive System" for $39 (listed on Gotta Deal's Black Friday site). Think of that: You get to give to give speed, drilling and driving -- all in one box!