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Hasbro beats in Q3, but its stock drops anyway

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), a toy maker which competes with Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), reported earnings for the third quarter on Monday. The top line increased 6% to $1.2 billion. The bottom line came in at $0.89 per diluted share. If you adjust the earnings reported in the previous year's quarter for a tax benefit, then the growth rate for the current quarter in terms of per-share profit becomes a very decent 14%.

According to this source, Hasbro beat analyst expectations by three pennies. That's a lot better than the usual penny. In addition, management came ahead on the revenue front as well. But did the stock rally on this news? No, it didn't. As of this writing, Hasbro's shares are trading down 7%. I'm surprised to some extent. I at least would have figured a flat performance for the stock. Hasbro is a big name when it comes to toys, and it sells merchandise based on big brands such as Star Wars and Transformers. We are now in the Christmas-shopping season; it's Hasbro's time of year. Thing is, though, Wall Street is worried. It doesn't matter that the market is up as I compose this piece (by the time I submit it, the major indexes could be easily be down 300 points for who knows what). And Hasbro's stock is going to suffer right along with the market. Not only that, but the stock will probably be pressured just because no one knows exactly how much toy buying will go on.

Still, Hasbro's stock was strong earlier in the year, it pays a dividend, and the company was in the market buying back some of its shares during the quarter. Long-term investors I'm sure are willing to snap up some Hasbro. Like I say, it has some powerful properties to sell (although I do wonder how its Star Wars: The Clone Wars product line will do this Christmas since the movie didn't perform so well). However, it might be prudent to wait for a higher yield in this market. The company did well in Q3, but the fourth quarter is not going to be easy for any business.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

4Kids Entertainment's Q2 loss is not fun at all

4Kids Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: KDE), a licensing operation meant to target kids with various toys and potential fads, suffered through a terrible second quarter. The top line increased 37% to $16.5 million. Sounds pretty good so far, right? Yeah, then we get to the bottom line. The net loss was $0.42 per share. This compares to a net loss of $0.17 per share in the previous year's Q2. And what did Wall Street think the company was going to lose? About $0.23 per share, according to Earnings.com. I'd call that a rather bad shortfall.

The press release promoted the fact that the Chaotic trading-card asset is performing up to expectations. 4Kids is very hopeful that it can create momentum behind the cards and eventually turn them into another Pokemon or Yu-Gi-Oh! franchise. Maybe management can, maybe it can't. That's the problem with 4Kids. It's difficult to retain a desire to allocate investment funds into this stock since you can never really tell what product line is eventually going to win out for the company. It's a constant exercise in speculation. For instance, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was weak this quarter compared to the year-ago period. Who knows if the property will be hot again two quarters from now. Going with a Hasbro, Inc. (NYSE: HAS), a Mattel, Inc. (NYSE: MAT), or a JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) would probably make for safer sledding.

4Kids' stock is up slightly as I write, and it isn't far from its 52-week low. It isn't cheap, and it isn't a buy. This is the kind of stock you would definitely need to see some momentum strength in before buying. Otherwise, you'd be risking too much. Granted, the stock has been strong the last month or so, but considering today's earnings report, I'd need to see it get well over $10 per share before I'd take another look.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Why I am still avoiding LeapFrog

LeapFrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF) reported a decent quarter, but I won't be buying the stock. I just think there are better ideas out there in this sector. First, let's play around with the numbers.

For Q2, LeapFrog saw its top line increase by 22% to a little over $68 million. The net loss was 32 cents per share versus a net loss of 44 cents a year earlier. According to Earnings.com, analysts were expecting the loss to be about 44 cents per share. There was, however, a little help from a tax benefit in the quarter; last year, the company recorded a tax expense. LeapFrog not only scored on the bottom line, but it also expanded its gross margin. So, the quarter seemed all right. But, I then look at the cash flow statement and see that LeapFrog has been using cash for operations the last six months. In the similar time period a year ago, LeapFrog reported positive operational cash flow.

LeapFrog's stock was up over 5% in after-hours trading on Monday after the earnings release. The stock has been strong in a bad market according to the AOL Finance snapshot, and the pop in the after-hours session placed it close to a 52-week high. Again, though, I think there are better ideas out there. Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) is a toy company I'd much rather align my portfolio with. I could even look at Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK).

I know that the stock may be signaling better times ahead, and toy companies certainly make their profits in the latter part of the year, but I still am cautious on this business. When I wrote about the company's fiscal year, I also noted bad cash-flow characteristics, as well losses on the bottom line. So, in the end, I just don't want my portfolio to play around with this low-priced equity.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Mattel receives an upgrade, but I'm not ready to buy

Mattel (NYSE: MAT), a toy company that competes with Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), got some good news earlier this week. Its stock was upgraded by analyst Gerrick Johnson of BMO Capital Markets, according to the AP, although it wasn't necessarily an overwhelming vote of confidence. The analyst is switching the rating from "underperform" to "market perform," and if you check out the AP piece, you'll see that he basically is saying that while he doesn't see a big reason to sell the stock, he doesn't see a big reason to buy it either. This was a call based on simple valuation.

I was glad when I read this clarification because, when I first spied this headline, I was a bit flummoxed. I honestly didn't expect Mattel to receive some huge upgrade at this point, even though I agree that the stock is certainly cheap. My main reason for this hinges on the best-of-breed character of Mattel's colleague Hasbro. I just wrote about this company and the strength of its stock at the beginning of the week, and if I were to buy any toy business right now, it probably would be the maker of Monopoly and Mr. Potato Head. Hasbro's got the brand strength as well as the stock strength, it seems, and even though Mattel packs a dividend-yield punch at over 4%, this market might be too tough to go with companies that are nowhere near a bullish trend.

Long-term, the maker of Barbie will rebound. Short-term, it may languish. So you'll have to consider your timeframe when taking a look at Mattel and Hasbro. Mattel does have a nice yield, but Hasbro and its product portfolio could be better positioned come the holiday season. It's going to be an interesting battle between these two rivals once the weather turns cold...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 07:49 PM

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