Earlier this week we were looking at oil prices, and wondering if we would see the precious crude break through the psychological $70 barrier, and that is exactly what we saw today.

For the first time since last November, oil prices were briefly above $70 today, moving up as high as $70.32 before profit taking pushed oil prices down on the day. We finished up the week at $68.44, down 37 cents.

To counterbalance all the green shoots talk, take a walk on the dark side.

Exhibit 1: Chain store sales declined 5% in May, a significant decline that did exclude giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Guess Joe Consumer still doesn't feel up to shopping much. And Wal-Mart said it will stop reporting monthly sales figures, something that many economists and investors find troubling because that will mean they are losing a key indicator on consumer spending.

The Swine Flu outbreak keeps chugging along as the number of people affected rises.

Shares of all travel-related companies have been sickened by the threat of a really bad pandemic, as opposed to a mild flu with a lot of media hype. And the market concerns can hardly be sneezed at. During the hellish Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, when tens of millions died, the bug circumnavigated the globe once in a milder form before mutating into the more virulent and deadly form that killed so many.

How can exports not rebound? Last year ended on a sour note after posting record results, and 2009 is by all accounts likely to be ugly. The tourism and travel industry is expected to shed more than 200,000 jobs this year. Fortunately, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. The U.S. Department of Commerce expects international visits to the United States to come back in 2010 – after its first forecasted year of decline (i.e., 2009) since 2003.

This year, international travel to the United States is expected to fall 8%. The following year, however, U.S. travel exports are expected to gain 5%, with 5% annual increases through the end of 2013. We'll come out ahead in all this, but it's going to take some time.

Will the influx of foreign visitors over the next four years be enough to turn the travel industry in the United States around? It's too soon to tell right now, and much will depend on the contributions made by domestic routes. Needless to say, even this glimmer of hope must be welcome to investors committed to the airline and hotel sectors.

Las Vegas isn't the only gaming mecca struggling for numbers; Macau saw the number of visitor arrivals to its shores drop 3.5% in April to about 1.87 million.

For the first four months of the year, visitor arrivals by land have dropped 15.5% on a year-over-year basis, while arrivals by air are slumping as well, off 5.9% for the first third of 2009. Total visitor arrivals in 2009 are down 8.1% from the same time period last year.

Oil prices reached a new 6 month high today, following a weekly inventory report that lead investors to believe that demand is rising for the precious crude.

Going into today's report from the Department of Energy, analysts had been expecting to see a drop of around 1.5 million barrels, but the actual drop came in larger than expected, with a reported 2.1 million decline in inventories for the week ended May 15.

Travel-industry experts hypothesize that employees may be opting out of summertime travel this year, out of concern that their jobs will be deemed unnecessary or easily replaced while they are out of the office.

What's worse? Coming back from a week in the mountains to find a mountain of work, or a boss newly cognizant of the fact that you're not as indispensable as everyone thought! Nervous workers appear to be fearing the latter, and whether or not this is driven by paranoia and panic, the travel market is suffering.

"People are scared of losing their jobs and want to stay in touch with their work," one travel expert told The Washington Times. Another noted that ". . . people feel guilty about indulging themselves and are nervous to leave their office for too long." And one New York-based advertising firm's survey showed that just over half of parents asked said they planned to cut down on vacation spending.

Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN), an online booking concern that competes with Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE), reported Q1 earnings on Monday. The stats were all right, I have to say.

Revenues increased over 14%. According to this article, earnings on an adjusted basis came to $1.09 per share. Analysts were looking for 93 cents per share. Year-ago adjusted income was 76 cents per share, according to the press release. Priceline not only expanded its bottom-line income, but it increased its net cash from operations. That figure went up by a nice 71%. Gross travel bookings as a whole jumped by over 10%. They did even better in the U.S. market.

Oil prices have been steadily heading higher the past month, and today was no exception, as the precious crude managed to close today's trading at its highest value in 2009.

While we are still no where near the record high prices we were seeing last summer, oil has managed to slowly creep its way up to $54.58 a barrel. This was after a rise on the day of $1.73, and it is a clear sign that analysts believe that global demand is about to move in oil's favor.

Upscale hotel chain Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) is likely to experience difficult leisure conditions for at least the next year. Further, when the economy rebounds, consumers will be looking to add back basics, rebuild nest eggs, and perhaps replace an aging car: few will be thinking about a vacation in a far away destination.

Likewise, business travelers will continue to be asked to belt-tighten: conference call when possible, meet without a night's stay when possible, and perhaps stay at lower-cost hotel when traveling great distances.

AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), the parent of American Airlines, reported earnings for the first quarter on Wednesday. Revenues decreased 15%, and on an adjusted basis, the company lost $1.30 per share. According to this source, the market was calling for a loss of $1.62 per share. Since management was able to beat by such a wide margin, Wall Street decided to reward the stock by bidding it up over 20% (that's how the shares were trading at the time I started this article).

Airlines are still having a problem with the economy. Consumers aren't traveling as much, businesses are cutting back on sending executives across country. Indeed, I'm sure the summer months are going to see a lot of vacation plans being eliminated as people decide to stay closer to home.

Even while dancing on the edge of the Great Abyss one should keep one's eye on the numbers. In this case, the key indicators that presage an economy at risk of totally imploding. Sure, the auto sales numbers were no worse than grim expectations and the ISM manufacturing number was actually a positive. But, oh, we have lots of nasty numbers to go around. Start with the RevPar number. That's short for revenue per available room at hotels and is a solid indicator of the health of the travel industry, as well as the state of business travel spending. The number? Down a stunning 15.3% in the month of January, year-over-year.

What's this? A major U.S. airline eliminating a fee?

Hey, it isn't much, but American travelers will take it. And, equally significant, it's another positive data point, albeit a minor one, for the airline sector.

U.S. Airways said it would end its onboard fee for soda, coffee, and bottled water effective March 1, the company announced Monday.

Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) did not have a good week. The online travel site, which competes with Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) for attention, reported abysmal earnings for the fourth quarter this past Thursday. The company suffered a huge loss of $9.60 per share. That's right, $9.60 per share! Kind of rocks your world, doesn't it? And not in a good way. I mean, Expedia's share price closed at $7.74 on Friday.

As you can imagine, there was an accounting issue going on (not that it should make shareholders feel any better, mind you). Expedia took a huge goodwill write-down related to the significant drop in the market capitalization of the business. We're talking $3 billion. Wow. Of course, management adjusted the earnings to represent what Expedia would have made without the charge. That would be $0.22 per share. Unfortunately, that missed expectations by two pennies.

The traditional response -- and defense -- for a late delivery is 'Better late than never." Regarding The Boeing Company's (NYSE: BA) delayed 787 Dreamliner, the stance is, 'Better be great, or never.' The Dreamliner, Boeing's next-generation wide-body, has been dubbed the '7-Late-7,' due to the company's four delivery delays that have pushed back its first delivery to Q1 2010.

From a commercial aviation standpoint, delaying a delivering is like showing up late for the first semester of classes at college. In the 787's case, Boeing looks like it will arrive on campus about four weeks into the semester, so says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer.