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China Will Not Dump U.S. Treasuries or Add Large Quantities of Gold

ChinaInformation about China's dealings with their foreign exchange reserves is often hard to come by. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) manages the exchange account.

SAFE has a website that has answered in broad terms China's position on U.S. treasuries and gold. First off, China has $2.45 trillion in reserves. Their goal is to increase the value of their holdings while at the same time maintain stability of their portfolio.

Continue reading China Will Not Dump U.S. Treasuries or Add Large Quantities of Gold

Ready to Leverage Up on U.S. Treasuries?

Traders who are looking for a more exciting way to play U.S. Treasuries just got two new toys to play with from Deutsche Bank and PowerShares.

Deutsche Bank just launched two new exchange-traded notes (ETNs) that allow traders to take leveraged bullish or bearish positions on Treasuries: the PowerShares DB 3X Long 25+ Year Treasury Bond Exchange Traded Note (LBND) and the PowerShares DB 3X Short 25+ Year Treasury Bond Exchange Traded Note (SBND).

Continue reading Ready to Leverage Up on U.S. Treasuries?

Flattening Yield Curve a Problem

As stock prices are plunging around the world, demand for U.S. Treasuries -- which are viewed as a safe haven for investors during times of economic uncertainty -- is skyrocketing.

This increase in demand is pushing the price of Treasuries higher and, thanks to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, is pushing Treasury yields lower. We are especially seeing this happening at the long-term end of the yield curve.

As longer-term yields drop, the Treasury yield curve is flattening. At the beginning of June, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries were near 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively. Now, yields on 10-year Treasuries have dropped below 3% -- their lowest level since April 2009 -- and yields on 30-year Treasuries are flirting with 4%.

This is a potential problem for two reasons.

Continue reading Flattening Yield Curve a Problem

Falling Bond Yields Highlight Investor Fears

Bond yields around the globe are painting a grim picture for anyone who is still bullish on the stock market.

Yields on the U.S. Treasury's 10-Year note dropped to a 52-week low of 3.09% on Wednesday, at the same time the yield on Japan's 10-year bond is hitting seven-year lows of 1.145%.

Investors also pushed yields on Germany's 10-year Bund to 21-year lows of 2.5%.

Sinking bond yields indicate demand for bonds is increasing, and we typically only see demand for bonds rise to these levels when investors are jumping out of the stock market.

Continue reading Falling Bond Yields Highlight Investor Fears

Nassim Taleb, Author of Black Swan, Predicts Trouble Ahead for World Economies

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, predicts trouble ahead for world economies. The Black Swan is a metaphor for unexpected events because people view the world as something structured, ordinary and comprehensible.

Some of his statements are factual, and some are conjecture. Here is list of quotes from his interview on CNBC:

Continue reading Nassim Taleb, Author of Black Swan, Predicts Trouble Ahead for World Economies

TLT: Profit from the Flight to Safety with Treasury Bond Fund

The scramble is on. Investors are racing to move money from riskier, higher-yielding trades to more conservative investments. And just like we saw during the financial crisis of 2008, U.S. Treasuries seem to be the conservative investment of choice.

This flight to safety and increased demand for U.S. Treasuries is pushing prices higher, but you need to make sure you are investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide exposure to Treasuries with longer-term maturities if you want to take advantage of the boom.

Continue reading TLT: Profit from the Flight to Safety with Treasury Bond Fund

Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries

They call themselves bond vigilantes. They are investors who are demanding higher yields at U.S. Treasury auctions.

Treasury auctions were going along quite smoothly until last week. Inflation is low, the housing market is in a slump and unemployment is at near record levels. All of this mixture is the stuff that low interest rates are made of.

Last week, the Greek debt crisis brought the problem of too much debt front and center. Now, investors are looking at the U.S. and see a mountain of fiscal debt that needs financing. The huge U.S. debt, $1.7 trillion, is making investors reappraise the yields on U.S. treasuries.

Continue reading Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries

High yield bond funds take a break

High yield is a nice way of saying "junk" when talking about bonds. These bonds are issued by firms who must pay a higher interest rate when raising capital than those companies that issue bonds that qualify as investment grade. Those higher interest rates are attractive to investors and lately demand for high yield bonds has led to a very nice rally in junk bond funds like the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG).

Today, HYG is finally pausing in its uptrend as investors take some profits off the table across the bond market. Investors are concerned about the fact that the Treasury plans to flood the $112 billion worth of new debt into the market next week. That will be a record auction amount and could put temporary downward pressure on bond prices.

Continue reading High yield bond funds take a break

Portfolio Alert: Watch out for a Fed ease-up on Treasury buying

The most recent data released from the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meetings show that the Fed remains relatively positive, albeit cautious, about an economic recovery in the U.S. This means that the Fed can start planning to wind down some of its debt buying programs including the its current program to purchase $300 billion in Treasury debt.

While the data was just released on Wednesday, the meetings actually took place on August 11th and 12th. But the results still merit scrutiny, especially for investors who may wonder what this could mean for their portfolios. Let's take a look.

Continue reading Portfolio Alert: Watch out for a Fed ease-up on Treasury buying

All-American stock #3: Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

colgate palmolive stock to buyMy final all-American brand is Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). The company is well-known for its toothpaste and toothbrushes. But Colgate-Palmolive also owns dozens of strong brand names, including Irish Spring, Speed Stick, Ajax, and many others.

Some investors may think of Colgate-Palmolive as a dull stock. That's fine by me.

The shares are far less volatile than most stocks on Wall Street. Even though the market overall is well below the highs it reached in the third quarter of 2007, shares of Colgate-Palmolive were never punished nearly as hard.

Continue reading All-American stock #3: Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Chinese regulator hates the US ... but still likes our bonds

Since President Nixon opened the doors to China back in the 1970s, the relationship has certainly been interesting – and complicated. Of course, now China is a critical piece of the global economy and a huge funder of U.S. debt, which is even more important in light of our massive deficit spending.

So, will China continue buying up our Treasuries? Perhaps so. This is according to a piece in the FT. The director general of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Luo Ping, said there is really no other place to put lots of cash (at least in a safe way). In fact, he wasn't too thrilled with the U.S.'s financial moves over the years. And, he even thinks the U.S. dollar will continue to sink (yes, not really a ringing endorsement from our financial sugar daddy).

Continue reading Chinese regulator hates the US ... but still likes our bonds

Fund expert offers tip on TIPs

"Like other US Treasuries, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) have virtually no credit risk," explains fund expert Mark Salzinger.

The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor adds, "Unlike other US Treasuries beyond short-term bills, however, TIPs also have no inflation risk." Here, he looks at an EYF based on TIPs.

"Twice a year, TIPs' principal valuis are adjusted upward by the amount of the increase in the Consumer Price Index Urban (CPI-U), thus protecting their holders against increases in inflation.

"The total return of the bond equals its yield plus the change in principal value based on inflation, changes in real interest rates (published interest rates minus inflation) and supply-demand in the market for TIPs.

"TIPs' yields are lower than those of regular Treasury sercurities of similar maturities. That's one of the disadvantages of TIPs.

"The other is that any increase in principal value due to the biannual inflation adjustment gets taxed every year as if it were received income.

Continue reading Fund expert offers tip on TIPs

Fewer U.S. Treasury dealers means likely higher U.S. Government borrowing costs

At first glance, word that the number of so-called primary government securities dealers decreased to 19 from 20 last month, may seem like a fairly esoteric concern that's removed from the typical investor and taxpayer.

But, in practice, it isn't that removed because fewer dealers means fewer firms bidding for U.S. bonds - - a circumstance likely to increase government (read: taxpayer) borrowing costs, Mark MacQueen, money manager of Sage Advisory Services told Bloomberg News Monday.

The number of authorized bond traders who make markets in U.S. Government debt decreased to 19 when the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) acquired Countrywide Financial Corp., Bloomberg News reported. It will drop again, to 18, after J. P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) completes its takeover of Bear Stearns.

Economist David H. Wang agreed Monday that the bidder math is not running in the U.S. Government's favor at this juncture. "We know from basic economics that, historically, if the number of market makers declines, auctions will not be as efficient, and this will lead to higher financing costs for the U.S. Government," Wang said.

Another factor likely to drive up U.S. Government borrowing costs: the size of the U.S. Government's budget deficit, Wang said. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the Fiscal 2009 deficit will total $500 billion, up from $470 billion in Fiscal 2008, the current fiscal year, which ends September 30, 2008. (pdf)

Continue reading Fewer U.S. Treasury dealers means likely higher U.S. Government borrowing costs

Safe Money seeks safety in Treasuries

"Derivatives - the 'global Vesuvius of debts and bets' that we have been warning about since 2006 is beginning to erupt," says Martin Weiss.

The editor of The Safe Money Report explains, "The time is now to build cash and the best place to put it is in United States Treasury bills or equivalent." Here, he looks at the benefits of Treasuries and the various ways that investors can add them to their portfolios.

"We now have overwhelming evidence of a severe recession. And we have a solid confirmation in the stock market itself. But we also forecast that the Fed would fight back, and do so aggressively, fomenting an
inflationary recession.

"They're pumping in massive amounts of money, trying to calm markets and seeking to avert a recession. But it's too little, too late for the economy. And it's too much, too soon for the already-shaky dollar. *Result: Gold has surged along with other commodities.

"And consumer price inflation, long a side-show on the American scene, is now surging back. Our urgent appeal: If youhaven't done so already based on our earlier issues, the time is now to shift from complacency to protective action ... from bull-market plays to income opportunities ... from risk to safety.

Continue reading Safe Money seeks safety in Treasuries

Bond spreads are tightest in nine years

Scott Black of Delphi Management mentioned in this weekend's Barron's that the spread between investment grade debt and Treasuries is just 83 basis points, the tightest in nine years.

Black went on to say that the private equity boom is not too different from the leverage buyout boom from 1980.

However, there are some differences between today and the 1980's. The debt level used in the corporate-raider-buyout boom of Perlman, Peltz, May et al was substantially higher than today. Ten percent was often the maximum equity put down. Today, equity contributions average 20% to 25% and in some cases have been in the 30% area.

The other difference is that as multiples have expanded, the equity contribution has also gone up. This is due to both more experienced PE fund managers, many of whom began their careers in the 1980s, and also operating managers of these companies are requiring a larger equity component. The guys left operating these businesses do not want to be stuck with unmanageable balance sheets.

But Black's comments are worth noting. While private-equity deal structures are more conservative, banks are opening the lending spigot. The excess in this market appears more on the lending side then the deal structure side. Both the private equity funds and operating managers have remained disciplined so far.

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 01:46 PM

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