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Fed Members Differ on Economic Outlook

The Federal Reserve has embarked on a controversial new program of buying $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries to keep interest rates low and spur the economy.

There is some disagreement among some members of the Fed concerning the risks of this new program. Some fear that the economy is growing too rapidly, fueling unwanted levels of inflation, as reported by CNNMoney.

Continue reading Fed Members Differ on Economic Outlook

Will Buying More Treasuries Boost the Economy?

Federal ReserveSaint Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard, said the Fed may need to buy more treasuries to pump more money into the economy.

Here we are two years down the road and nothing much has changed. The same old tactics are used to try to boost the economy, while unemployment remains high. In fact, initial claims for unemployment jumped to 500,000 this past week.

Things are not working out as planned. Why is that?

Continue reading Will Buying More Treasuries Boost the Economy?

Bonds Up, Stocks Down on Renewed Economic Fears

A new fear gripped the market Friday. Originally, gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of economic activity -- was reported to have grown 2.4% in the second quarter. Now, many are expecting the Department of Commerce will revise this figure down next week. According to a Bloomberg survey, revised GDP will have lost one point to a more anemic 1.4% growth.

The expectation of the lower GDP caused an accelerated rush to buy Treasuries. On the futures market, the 30 year bond was up 15 ticks to 134-26. The Dow Jones Industrial average continued its decline, falling yet another 90 points in early morning trade.

Continue reading Bonds Up, Stocks Down on Renewed Economic Fears

Citigroup Singled Out for a Long-Term Strangle

Citigroup logoOption volume was relatively quiet in Citigroup Inc. (C) on Tuesday, with call and put activity both falling short of the expected daily levels. However, a noteworthy volatility play crossed the tape around midday, with one long-term speculator betting on a significant price swing from the bailed-out bank.

Shortly after noon, a block of 10,000 March 2011 4-strike puts traded at the ask price, suggesting they were purchased, while a matching block of 10,000 March 2011 5-strike calls changed hands at the ask price. Open interest at both strikes swelled overnight by more than 10,000 contracts apiece, confirming these were all freshly opened positions.

Continue reading Citigroup Singled Out for a Long-Term Strangle

Drop in Treasury Bond Yields Forecasts a Bear Market for Stocks

There's an old adage: When bond prices go up, stock prices go down, and vice versa. Over the past three months, Treasury bond yields have taken a big hit (bond prices and bond yields move in the opposite direction). The benchmark 10-year bond yield dropped from 4.01% in April to its present 2.79%.

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff has researched bond yields and their corresponding effect on the stock market. According to an article on CNBC.com, Rosenberg found that if yields fall more than 1.20%, a bear market in stocks is just a couple of months away. He cites the bear markets of 1990, 2000 and 2007 as examples.

Continue reading Drop in Treasury Bond Yields Forecasts a Bear Market for Stocks

Closing Bell: DJIA 11,000 Yo-Yo (AA, COP, PALM, MIPI, INTC, JPM)

This was one of those market days that you could try to blame on earnings season starting out, but it may be nothing more than valuations catching up to stocks at DJIA 11,000 and after the huge stock gains in 2009 and 2010. Investors and traders alike are still using DJIA 11,000 as the battleground. Today's Treasury Budget Deficit came out at -$65.4 billion versus $62 billion expected.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 11,019.50 +13.53 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,197.27 +0.79 (0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,465.99 +8.12 (0.33%)

Continue reading Closing Bell: DJIA 11,000 Yo-Yo (AA, COP, PALM, MIPI, INTC, JPM)

Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries

They call themselves bond vigilantes. They are investors who are demanding higher yields at U.S. Treasury auctions.

Treasury auctions were going along quite smoothly until last week. Inflation is low, the housing market is in a slump and unemployment is at near record levels. All of this mixture is the stuff that low interest rates are made of.

Last week, the Greek debt crisis brought the problem of too much debt front and center. Now, investors are looking at the U.S. and see a mountain of fiscal debt that needs financing. The huge U.S. debt, $1.7 trillion, is making investors reappraise the yields on U.S. treasuries.

Continue reading Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries

AIG to Hit Feds for Another $2 Billion

American International Group (AIG) has gone back to the feds. The insurer pulled another $2.2 billion from its Treasury Department facility to support the property-casualty business units that will comprise the restructured company. AIG used the cash from Treasury to redeem some securities held by its insurance subsidiaries to increase liquidity and address rating agency considerations.

According to David Havens, managing director of credit trading at Nomura Securities (NMR), "AIG still needs to be cognizant of where the rating agencies stand on their solvency." He adds, in Bloomberg News, that the funds may have been sought after the company got "feedback from the rating agencies that the regulatory capital within the operating companies doesn't muster up."

Continue reading AIG to Hit Feds for Another $2 Billion

Is It Time to Print Your Own Money?

So, this sounds like a great idea, right? The people of our city are unemployed, leading to less cash and less spending -- so let's print our own money! As those gentlemen in the now-defunct Guinness ads shrieked: Brilliant! In Detroit, a group of businesses are now accepting what is called Detroit Cheer. With this local currency you can buy a pizza, receive some electrical services, and day care for your pooch. The Cheer can also be exchanged for cash at local bars. Sounds like it would be illegal, right? Well, the article notes that it isn't -- as long as the printed currency doesn't look too much like the dollar it is perfectly legal. I don't think anyone is going to confuse the Detroit Cheer with the American Dollar.

Continue reading Is It Time to Print Your Own Money?

Fed Profit Tops $50 Billion

The Federal Reserve picked up a $52.1 billion profit last year, a record for the organization. The result is due largely to its 2009 bailout efforts. Of the profit generated, $46.1 billion will be handed over to the Treasury Department -- the largest profit payment made since records began back in 1914. The previous record was $34.6 billion, in 2007. Last year, the Fed turned $31.7 billion over to the Treasury Department.

According to the Associated Press, the profit didn't come from the $700 billion lent to financial institutions -- and then to auto companies like General Motors. Rather, it was the result of earnings from the securities it had in its portfolio last year. Several investment programs were launched last year to help kickstart the U.S. economy and drive down rates on mortgages and consumer debt. Through the programs, the Fed bought $300 billion in government debt, and under another, it's on a trajectory to buy $1.25 trillion in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae mortgage securities.

Continue reading Fed Profit Tops $50 Billion

Banks subsidizing auto TARP, extra money could be spent

The bailouts of late 2008 and 2009 have cost the American taxpayers $61 billion, according to the Treasury Department, but the banks aren't to blame this time. The auto manufacturer bailout, which includes Chrysler and General Motors (GRM), has cost the country more than $30 billion, with American International Group (AIG) consuming another $30 billion.

Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC) has already made good with the government, and several banks -- such as Capital One (COF), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and TCF Financial (TCB) -- only have to clean up situations regarding the warrants they've issued. And interestingly, the losses from the bailouts on AIG and auto manufacturers are being offset by profits from the bank bailouts, which could generate additional funds of up to $19.5 billion.

Continue reading Banks subsidizing auto TARP, extra money could be spent

Bank failures hit 106 for 2009

Seven more banks failed late Friday, including institutions in Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Georgia, and three in Florida. The FDIC posted the liabilities it would assume and which banks would take on customers from the shutter institutions in detail on its website.

According to MarketWatch, "CreditSights, which tracks the dismal data, predicts that in the current cycle, from 2008 through 2011, as many as 1,100 banks will fail. That would wipe out 13.4% of all U.S. banks, representing 7% of U.S. banking assets."

Continue reading Bank failures hit 106 for 2009

The Fed under fire! Geithner wants to study Fed governance

The U.S. Treasury and Congress are putting pressure on the Fed to disclose its governance policies.

Almost three months ago, on June 17, the Obama administration proposed a regulatory overhaul including a "comprehensive review of the Fed's ability to accomplish its existing and proposed functions."

There is some confusion as to why the Treasury is undertaking this task. The Fed was created by Congress to be independent of the executive branch and Congress.

Continue reading The Fed under fire! Geithner wants to study Fed governance

U.S. budget deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $111.4 billion in August

Notch another better-than-expected data point for the U.S. economy: the federal budget deficit totaled $111.4 billion in August, the U.S. Treasury Department announced Friday, Bloomberg News reported -- a level well below the $140.0 billion Bloomberg News survey estimate.

The August deficit brings the 2009 fiscal year deficit to about $1.37 trillion, largely ballooned by the $787 billion stimulus package to jump-start the U.S. economy and the $700 billion bank sector bail-out. There is one month left (September) in the current fiscal year. July's budget deficit was unrevised at $180.6 billion.

Continue reading U.S. budget deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $111.4 billion in August

Closing Bell: The never ending rally (ABX, GE, PALM, VVUS)

Today was another up and away day, although after the 2:00 PM Beige Book and after a Treasury auction, it felt like today was just going to be a difficult one to call.

This is a light week on data and a light day on earnings and that makes it a hard tell each day to have serious conviction for bulls and bears alike. The DJIA went above 9,500 and marks the 4th day in a row of a rally.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,538.23 +40.89 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,032.47 +7.08 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,058.60 +20.83 (1.02%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades
Top Day Trader Alert Stocks

Continue reading Closing Bell: The never ending rally (ABX, GE, PALM, VVUS)

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 09:45 AM

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