I almost was one of the people that put money back in the market at the end of the year. It's a new year, Obama is coming in, things will improve, I figured. But I held back. I don't like to make market decisions based solely on gut. And even then, my gut is of two minds and one of them says this recession is going to be the worst of my lifetime.

Some stats do point to an up year this year. We've been hearing a lot this week how the market goes up a lot after a fall. My friends at the always smart Stock Traders' Almanac use a measure of the first five trading days of the year. It was on this measure that I -- thankfully -- pulled back last January. If the first five days are up, the year will be generally be up, they've found. Sy Hirsch invented this measure as an improvement on his other early indicator, which says however January goes, so goes the market for the year.

For the last 36 times that the market has been up for those first five trading days in January, the market has been up for the whole year, they say. And they judge the indicator to have a 86% accuracy ratio. This year it's a little confusing: the Dow was down a little, the S&P was up a little (both under 1%) and the Nasdaq was up 2.5%. By that measure the rally that started in December will continue.

I've been very wary of market conditions over the last six months. I've taken the bear position for better than a year now. Today however, I am seeing a convergence of conditions and circumstances that lead me to question whether the gates have again been thrown open for the bulls. Make no mistake about my position on the economy from a consumer standpoint. It's real ugly out there and I'm not too happy about that. However, I've seen it worse in my time and for now, we still live in a world where good hard work and some personal responsibility can accomplish a lot for a person.

There are several things that I now find promising for the investment world. First, the answer to the question of the Democratic presidential nominee is all but cemented. That's one big monkey off the nation's back. Second, the Federal Reserve has subtly come out in favor of protecting the dollar. I do understand more now about why the Reserve Board took the path that it did, but I still think that interest rates need to come back up a little. Third, our nation has shown that it can indeed reduce it's driving habit in short order. Fourth, manufacturing numbers have not declined as quickly or as deeply as I expected. Finally, I think the downward slide of real estate values is slowing and shall soon stabilize, but there are still a lot of mortgage notes yet to crumble.

I know that the stock markets and the overall economy are inextricably connected, I also know that they are two very distinct worlds. That is why I feel that the markets could surge while things at the consumer level still look very grim.

If the price of crude oil can be reduced and stabilized, if we can reverse the downward trend in employment, and if this country's citizens can repay their debts rather than defaulting on them, I see a bull market on the horizon. What do you think? Should we aim the DJIA upward again?

Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger. He spent most of his economic stimulus check on a much needed new refrigerator.

Yesterday I visited a near by Gap store in 'up-scale' Santa Monica. When I walked in I was immediately disappointed by how down scale the store was. It was clean and bright and the sales people were helpful but there was little of interest to purchase and few customers too.

Actually, I was out for a lunch walk and the Gap store was on the way so I decided to see if they might have a nice simple shirt. As an architect and designer (dad was a tailor) I was wondering about their window displays before I entered. The Santa Monica store has seven large windows, each with mannequins wearing a reddish-mauve t-shirt with black jeans. The motif repeated in each window as if that was the only thing the Gap sold, or as if repeating the same thing over and over created something 'chic' or artistic -- I don't think so. It looked poor on product and ideas!

Since the crumpled, wrinkled, used, worn-out look is obviously in vogue you can be sure there was nothing for me. I can do that to my clothes by myself without anyone's help and without paying extra. Even notwithstanding my own personal taste, there were really very few products for sale, or variations on the theme even if one were looking for this type of wardrobe. I will not waste your time by enumerating the number of things that were not available that should have been, or could have been. I will simply point out that my impression was that this was a nice place with nice people and NO IDEAS and NO MERCHANDISE to choose from!

The women's section had more selection and the kids and baby offerings were only a little better.

Just when I was getting ready to write a post proclaiming that, thanks to Microsoft's über-geeky-cool "suede"-colored Zune music player, brown is the new pink (a.k.a. is the new white, is the new silver, is the new black), it turns out that pink is the new pink.

Engadget has news that Microsoft has given pink and orange Zunes as gifts (to retailers perhaps?), although the particular shade seems to defy the understated, Northwest-comfort connotations of the other colors (white = "cotton", black = "flannel") with which Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has staked its claim. If you ask me this color says "poly-cotton blend knit," not, I don't know, "raw silk."

You know what? I'm sticking to my guns. Brown is the new pink and the new black. I'm predicting that retailers will be delivering a smattering of earth tones in their electronics product mix for 2007. Brown is beautiful, and the brown Zune is why I'm in love with Microsoft these days.