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Getting your new triple-play or ISP package -- at Wal Mart

There was an interesting announcement that came out this week. It seems that the triple-play package of cable, high-speed internet, and telephony are coming to America's largest retailer.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) are partnering up to allow Wal-Mart customers to select and purchase various Time Warner packages at nearly 700 Wal-Mart store locations.

The store offerings will be in the electronics department or "Connection Center" locations inside the stores. These locations will explain and offer the packages, possibly with a joint purchase of a new high-definition television.

Time Warner believes this will give customers convenient and easy access to its broadband, high-definition cable, and digital phone services. After seeing VoIP offerings in the past, this might not be all that unexpected. But the triple- play package isn't exactly a bare-bones pricing, even if it ultimately does save money for consumers who use all three services under one provider.

For the former "Always Low Prices" retailer, it seems that the old dial-up or low-priced DSL internet access would have been the highest priced offering. Either times are a changing, or US web access markets are saturated.

We are still awaiting the final verdict from Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and Jeff Bewkes regarding its majority stake in the cable operator.

Verizon (VZ) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) go at one another

Verizon (NYSE:VZ) says that Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) is lying in its advertising. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Verizon says that Time Warner Cable's ad implies FiOS requires a satellite dish for TV service and that it isn't able to bundle together high-speed Internet, video and phone calls."

The problem, of course, is much deeper than one ad. Verizon has spent $23 billion to put fiber in front of its 18 million customer homes. In the process it hopes it can take TV and high-speed Internet customers away from cable companies and satellite TV firms. If the product does not do well, there will be hell to pay in the Verizon executive suite.

Cable company stocks have fallen over the last three quarters, to a large extent due to the fear that they now have real competition for packages for voice, TV, and broadband, known fondly as the "triple play". Verizon does not have to get a huge number of cable customers to switch to do some real P&L damage. Early indications are that consumers like the fiber service. Because it can deliver more bandwidth it can offer larger numbers of HD channels.

The court fight over the ad makes for nice newspaper copy, but the real fight ends up being one for shareholder value. Time Warner Cable's stock is down 30% in the last year.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

As Comcast cuts guidance, cable faces new challenge

Cable shares were beginning to get back on track. FCC plans to further regulate the industry never made it off the ground. It looked like the the industry had clear running.

But, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) issued a profit warning saying that its cash flow in 2007 might be only 80% of what it was last year. The number of subscribers it expected to sign up would fall from previous forecasts and capital spending on new infrastructure would rise. Barron's reports "the company now sees revenue generating units up about 6 million, to 57 million, rather than previous guidance of 6.5 million unit growth. Comcast now sees cable revenue growth of about 11%, down from previous guidance of at least 12%."

It appears that Wall Street was right when it began to fear the worst about fiber-to-the-home competition from telephone companies. The new technology allows them to offer fast broadband, HDTV, and voice service in one package. For several years only cable could do that. Now the telecoms, lead by Verizon (NYSE: VZ), are aggressively offering their own packages.

For investors, the problem is that new competition is likely to keep cable stocks down for a long time. That means that the lows that they hit recently may be as good as it gets.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

FCC to cut cable's cord into big apartment buildings

The news for Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and its cable peers could not get worse. Or could it? After posting mediocre earnings, the cable giant had to face concerns that the new AT&T (NYSE: T) U-verse IPTV product has been taking TV customers from cable companies at a rate much faster than Wall Street would have guessed. Comcast shares hit a 52-week low at $20.82.

Now, the FCC plans to void thousands of contracts that give cable companies exclusive rights to distribute TV into large apartment buildings. The New York Times writes that FCC "officials and consumer groups said the new rule could significantly lower cable prices for millions of subscribers who live in apartment buildings and have had no choice in selecting a company for paid television."

The move would open the door for satellite TV companies and the two big telephone firms, something that cable company stock prices can ill-afford.

Continue reading FCC to cut cable's cord into big apartment buildings

Charter (CHTR) hits an ugly patch

Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) is the weakest of the big cable companies. It has $19 billion in debt and most operating earnings to cover the interest. While its larger rivals may be able to weather a tough time as the telephone companies begin to take customers with their new "triple play" products, Charter may not make it.

Yesterday, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), the largest cable company, came out with earnings that showed its growth in digital cable subscribers was not moving up at the rate that it had in earlier reporting periods. With its VoIP offering it was able to steal telecom customers by offering VoIP, broadband, and TV bundled together. But, the telephone companies are putting in fiber systems that are allowing them to match those offerings.

Charter's shares fell from $2.50 to under $2 yesterday on the poor earnings out of Comcast.

Charter's stock price is now down from a 52-week high of almost $5. With its market cap well under $1 billion and a debt load that could crush that company, it is a real question whether the company can stay out of bankruptcy court. It does not have the capital to match the marketing dollars from the large telephone companies and certainly lacks the capital to upgrade its infrastructure to stay in the game.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Comcast (CMCSA) falls but shorts move out of stock

When a stock is tanking, the shorts are usually all over it. Shares of Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) are down nearly 15% this year. At $24, they trade near their 52-week low. But, short interest in Comcast dropped 16.1 million shares in September, to 97.2 million.

The primary reason that the country's largest cable company is down appears to be the concern that the new fiber-to-the-home initiatives from AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) will take broadband and TV customers from cable. But so far the evidence is that fiber customers come from the analog base of cable subscribers, which is small, or are upgrades for existing DSL subscribers. If so, cable companies do not have to worry too much.

So the shorts may be moving out of Comcast because it is beginning to dawn on the market that getting "triple play" consumers, who already use cable for voice/broadband/TV, will be very difficult for the telephone companies. A switch means an entirely new installation, new billing, and an unfamiliar system.

Continue reading Comcast (CMCSA) falls but shorts move out of stock

Cable continues to kick Baby Bells' bottoms

Quarterly results for triple play services--voice, video and data--looked pretty darn good, once again, for the cable companies. The opposite can be said for the old-time regulated Baby Bells.

Regarding Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE: TWC) results, unit growth numbers were very strong in high-speed data and VoIP. Net additions of broadband customers were up 18% for Time Warner and Comcast Corp (NASDAQ: CMCSA) reported 10% growth.

Conversely, DSL providers continue to perform poorly with net addition growth in the quarter being down 23% at Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), 12% at AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) and 16% at Qwest Communications International Inc (NYSE: Q). While some credence has to be given to the fact that the Baby Bells are transitioning to selling fiber, the uptake appears slow with video penetration at a mere 11%, not a good number. Supposedly, for the economics of a triple play offering to earn a positive return, a 20%-plus penetration rate is required or higher, but my data might be old on this.

Regarding the fourth service, wireless, the cable companies have to ensure the Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) partnerships work. There is little doubt that having a wireless data capability is big and the old-time telcos have powerful assets with Verizon Wireless and Cingular. However, providing the cable companies do not mess up their wireless strategy, it appears the cable companies will continue to dominate this battle.

Cisco getting cool again

Back in the 1990s, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) was a can't-miss stock. Hey, it powered the Internet, right? How could you go wrong?

Of course, the stock was extremely overvalued and has been mostly dead money for years.

That is, until recently.

Basically, it looks like Cisco's infrastructure technologies will benefit nicely from the "triple play" of voice, broadband and video, all of which is being sent across the same network.

It is more than infrastructure, however. Cisco is also building cool applications and products. Its most recent announcement: high-definition video conferencing. The product's name, TelePresence, is an apt name; the high quality makes it is as if others are really present.

TelePresence could have a strong return-on-investment for companies in terms of increased productivity as well as less travel. At the same time, it will take a tremendous amount of bandwidth, which, of course, is good news for Cisco as this would mean more infrastructure sales.

Yes, indeed, it's a nice virtuous cycle -- worth paying attention to.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 03:54 PM

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