Truck manufacturer Paccar Inc.'s (PCAR) shares, first discussed on July 6, 2009 at a price of $30.81, soared above major, psychological resistance at $50 last autumn, and if you're in at/near $31, now may be good time to consider taking some profits.

However, other investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position, but keep in mind that the journey to $70 may not be reached in 2011.

Paccar's revenue will likely rise an impressive 20-25% 2011, following a likely 10-12% increase in 2010, as economies in North America, Europe, and in emerging markets continue to recover.

Good news is coming in for the builders of heavy trucks, such as Paccar (PCAR), and for truck parts manufacturers, including Eaton (ETN). An aging national truck fleet, coupled with rebounding interstate freight volumes, signal that 2011 is shaping up to be a strong year for heavy trucks and the investors who play them.

A report from Bloomberg Businessweek reveals that manufacturing totals for heavy trucks could jump to as many as 235,000 units in North America for 2011. This compares to a total of approximately 150,000 units for 2010.

The shares of truck manufacturer Paccar Inc. (PCAR), first discussed on July 6, 2009 at a price of $30.81, dipped after soaring to about $49 earlier this spring, but just view the pull-back as a chance to scoop-up shares at a decent price. Here's why:

Look for Paccar's revenue to increase about 11-13% 2010 as economies in North America, Europe, and in emerging markets continue to recover. The Europe region's debt problems will likely weigh on commercial conditions, near-term, but so far it does not appear that the region will fall into a double-dip recession.

Toyota Motor Company (TM) has definitely been feeling the impact of its current recall crisis. The company that once had a strong reputation for safe and reliable cars has seen that image tarnished, and the effects are being felt on the company's dealer lots.

February was a tough month for the company, and concerns over the safety of the company's vehicles led to a reported 8.7% dip in sales last month.

Every once in a while, one comes across a story-behind-a-story - - one that represents an innovative idea with promise.

One such idea surfaced recently when billionaire oilman and maverick T. Boone Pickens, while forecasting $200-300 per barrel oil in 10 years to marketwatch.com, also expanded on another project: getting 350,000 18-wheeler trucks converted to natural gas through a federal subsidy program.

One stock off to the races this year is truck and bus maker Navistar International (NYSE: NAV). Its shares were up 44% after the first three days of trading this year, including trading higher on days the market was lower. And the stock is up 62% since the day before Christmas.

What's behind the move?

Monday morning the company said it expected earnings for fiscal 2009 to range between $5.10 and $5.60 per share, which is significantly below the $6.08 the Street was expecting (though the company's forecast includes up to $3 per share in pension costs).

Perhaps someone figured out that with the stock in the low $20s and earnings slated to be above $5 per share, the P/E ratio was pretty low and the stock at that low level was too enticing to pass up.

More likely, though, the move can be attributed to comments from CEO Daniel Ustian, who said that he believed that 2010, rather than being a trough year, will be a lot higher than 2009. The company said it sees a (very) slight gain in sales volume in the United States and Canada this year of its school buses and heavy-duty trucks to 244,000 to 256,000 from 244,100 in fiscal 2008.

I know, I know: forecasting the imminent demise of America's car companies is nothing new, but recent events have highlighted the kind of shortsighted planning that has plagued Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) for years. While the gas crisis has exacerbated the shortcomings of the automakers, the companies' failures to understand their core audience, invest in R&D, and ensure the quality of their finished product are long-term, endemic problems that make them a very questionable bet.

Recently, for example, General Motors' decided to offer incentives, extended protection plans, and employee pricing to draw buyers to the line; these innovations, however, have had the added impact of massively undercutting revenues. As Williams-Sonoma could now point out, slashing your profit margin is not really the best way to make a profit. While their decision to get rid of Hummer should help GM shed a pricey and currently unpopular line, by the time the sale is finished, gas prices will be back down and everybody will be driving hydrogen-powered cars.

Ford, meanwhile, has decided to focus its attention on cars, a long-term plan that doesn't seem very well thought out. While the Mustang is, perhaps, Ford's most famous model, their trucks have long been an iconic symbol of the company. Rather than invest in making their strongest sellers more fuel-efficient and thus more attractive to consumers, Ford seems to be placing its eggs in a somewhat unreliable basket.

Ford (NYSE: F) will stick to its plan to become less of a truck company and more of a car company, even if oil prices stay relatively low. According to Reuters, "A decline in gas prices would support consumer confidence, but customers still face job risks, potential financing difficulties with tight credit markets and other factors and it would not change Ford's planning assumptions."

Ford hurt itself with its last "all or nothing" gamble, and it could hurt itself with this one. Going to extremes has done little for Ford over the last decade.

The demand for small cars is not likely to change. It is hard to imagine gas prices going below $3 in the next year. Crude seems to have set a floor above $110 a barrel, which is still very high compared to 18 months ago.

But Ford has the brand image of being first in bringing the consumer high-quality pickups and SUVs. Its F-150 truck has been the top selling vehicle in the U.S. for a number of years.

Ford has to be careful it does not let the pendulum swing too far away from its current core business. In a couple of years, the market may change again. Use of alternative energy could help inch gas prices down by 2010. Ford can't afford to be caught flat-footed again.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian said he has added $100 million to his pool of capital for buying shares of Ford, and may borrow as much as $600 million to buy shares, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Kerkorian now says he may borrow up to $600 million, up from $500 million, from the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), according to the filing, Bloomberg News reported.

Ford's (NYSE: F) shares fell 40 cents to $6.75 in mid-day Friday trading, amid a broader market sell-off.

Kerkorian's announcement occurred one day after Ford advised analysts and investors that it had abandoned its profitability target for 2009, due to rising steel and gasoline costs, among other factors, The Washington Post reported Friday.

Ford's shares: not overpriced

Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said Kerkorian's tactic, should he follow-through and increase his 5.5% Ford stake, is daring, but risky. "Let's just put it this way: Kerkorian would not be radically overpaying for Ford at these price levels," Bauer said.

If you own a Ford F-150, or a Lincoln Mark LT pickup truck, then you want to pay special attention to this, as Ford (NYSE: F) has announced that more than 655,000 of these vehicles are being recalled at this time.

The reason behind the current recalls is a possible problem with a hose that can affect the trucks' ability to brake properly. So far, Ford claims that there have been 11 accidents resulting from the faulty hoses, but that there have been no injuries to date.

The vehicles in question involve the 2005 and 2006 models of the trucks that come with the 5.4 liter 3-valve engines. If you have one of these trucks you should contact your local Ford dealer as soon as possible and get your replacement hose, at no cost to you.

Most of the trucks in question are located in the United States, which accounts for more than 600,000 of the trucks. Canadian residents account for another 50,000 vehicles, with the small remainder being located in other countries around the world.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

When it comes to comparing the pick-up trucks of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chevrolet by General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), I can honestly say that I've owned both brands. I bought one F-150 off the showroom floor. I also bought one that was very well used. Both my Chevy Silverados were low-mileage, used models. I leased one of them from my dad and the other one I bought from my brother. I have also had opportunities to drive multiple specimens of each brand that were owned by friends or associates. I like both brands as far as their trucks go. Their cars are a story for another day.

To me, Chevy trucks always seem a bit more solid, with interior appointments a little more lush and inviting. Ford trucks seem to focus more on utility and usability within a bit roomier interior. The Chevy trucks always exhibit deep power, easily delivered upon demand. Fords trucks always seem a bit more spunky with their aggressiveness always close under foot. Chevy trucks appeal to the gentleman in me but they've always done any job I asked of them. Ford trucks appeal to the workman in me and they sometimes seem immortal.

The Ford (NYSE: F) F-150 has been one of the best selling vehicles in U.S. history. It is one of the most profitable products that the company produces.

A new version of the F-150 is one the way. According to Reuters, "the automaker, which has said its turnaround efforts hinge on exciting new products, is counting on the new trucks to help stem its protracted decline in U.S. sales."

Even if the truck has very little competition, it would not be likely to sell well. Pickups consume a great deal of gasoline. High fuel prices make the F-150 unattractive from that standpoint. And, Americans will probably defer new car buying due to tight credit and a bad economy.

In addition, Toyota (NYSE: TM) has entered the full-sized pickup market with the Tundra, and Chrysler has been in the business for year. GM (NYSE: GM) has a large line of light trucks. Each of these companies want the profits that come from selling a lot of pickup trucks.

If the F-150 is critical to Ford's fortunes, the company has a problem.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) said Thursday it will sell its mid-size truck unit, which built about 40,800 vehicles in 2006, to Navistar International. Financial terms were not disclosed.

GM's shares fell 20 cents to $26.46 in Thursday midday trading.

GM said the agreement constitutes another step in the company's plan to focus on designing, manufacturing and selling cars and light trucks around the world. GM added that the deal would leverage Navistar's strengths in commercial trucks and engines, enhance its economies of scale and lower costs.

Good decision

Analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, said he likes the sound of the Navistar deal.

"This will enable GM to allocate more resources on its core: cars and light trucks," Bauer said. "I like the sale to Navistar in that it gets GM out of a space that did not represent a big gainer. GM has seen the future, and for them it's not in manufacturing mid-size trucks."

Big Three automakers General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler plan to decrease production of full-size pickups - - including curtailing production for all or part of January 2008, due to a slowing economy that's expected to decrease sales, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Earlier this week General Motors announced it will impose a two-week shutdown at its pickup truck plants in January 2008.

Ford said its truck plants would likely reduce overtime or impose temporary shutdowns in January 2008 as part of its Q1 production cutback.

Chrysler LLC said it will stop production at plants in Warren, Mich., and Fenton, Mo., right before Christmas through all of January 2008.

Speaking at the Los Angeles Auto Show, Ford (NYSE: F) CEO Alan Mulally said the automaker is committed to improving miles per gallon efficiency and reducing emissions via implementing technological advances.

And the technological advances Ford's looking to incorporate to help stabilize its market share? Direct fuel injection, smaller-cylinder engines with turbo charges, lighter weight materials, hybrids, and diesels, among others. Moreover, Mulally said Ford's goal will be to increase fuel economy without sacrificing engine performance or auto safety. Ford's shares drifted three cents lower to $7.95 in Thursday afternoon trading.

In general, analysts were encouraged by Ford's presentation, despite the company's lack of a time-table for efficiency improvements or announcement of changes to specific vehicle models, other than a promise to apply diesel fuel and technology to improve the mpg of its popular but fuel-guzzling F-150 pickups.