Analyst Upgrades

• Marriott (MAR) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX) and Owens-Illinois (OI) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• FirstMerit (FMER) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Safeway (SWY) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Babcock & Wilcox (BWC) to buy from neutral, as well as Jacobs Engineering (JEC) and W. R. Berkley (WRB) to neutral from sell, at Goldman.
• Pioneer Natural (PXD) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Teekay Tankers (TNK) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Last week, Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A and BRK.B), said India's 26% foreign ownership cap on insurers deters him from such an investment. This follows an earlier report that Buffett aims to enter the Indian insurance sector as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.

After numerous world calamities, Buffett's focus on insurance companies, and the fact that many hedge funds seem to be heavily focused on banks and neglecting insurance companies -- with the exception of Bruce Berkowitz -- I decided to explore the possibilities.

Even though we can anticipate billions of dollars in claims there still are buying opportunites.

Do you have any interest in insurance companies amidst the turmoil, disaster and current crises in Japan? A crises that followed so closely on the heals of the destruction of the New Zealand city of ChristChurch by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake. Perhaps you think this is even a poorer idea than catching that proverbial falling knife we are always hearing about when stock prices are collapsing.

Certainly there will be billions of dollars in claims. On the other hand, perhaps the burden will be spread around the globe to reinsurer's such that none is struck too hard and this is a buying opportunity. After all, when the dust settles, insurers will cry for mercy, and in particular, rate increases. It is also likely those that never saw the need for insurance have been awakened and demand will increase.

Ten weeks into the year and never a dull moment. Pondering the remaining 42 weeks and beyond, where will value be found? We know that "my pal Warren" is on the prowl waist high in Berkshire Hathaway cash to invest, and he is on record as chomping on the bit to do so. Just this morning it was reported that Buffett had closed a $9 billion deal to buy Lubrizol Corp. (LZ), the Wickliffe, Ohio-based maker of engine lubricants.

More evidence of this abounds: Wednesday March 2, (Reuters) - US-based Berkshire Hathaway aims to enter the Indian insurance sector as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.

This is part 1 of a series examining the insurance market for expansion, stock valuations, potential risks and opportunities, excluding health care focused companies, a whole other breed of enterprise.

Prognosticators the world over are throwing in their 2 cents about "my pal Warren's" next market moves; especially since he announced last week that his trigger finger was itchy. When Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A and BRK.B) speaks, investors listen.

On Wednesday March 2, this investor threw in his two cents worth (see:Serious Money: What Should Warren Buffett Do Next?) discussing possible acquisitions. Since all the "pro's", I use the term loosely, have had a say I thought I would give readers a chance to express some of their ideas too.

To paraphrase Mark Twain "The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". The world economy has been in shambles for a few years now, and our nation has much work ahead of it. 2010 was an improvement over 2009 and I believe 2011 will show further improvement.

There are lots of ideas running through my mind as I consider where the economy might be heading in 2011. What opportunities lay in front of us waiting to be picked up or passed over? Just five trading days left, and market activity will slow down except among fund managers making adjustments for tax purposes or window dressing. You should examine your tax situation, too.

The view in August argued that The Travelers (TRV), which I first wrote about on April 24, 2009, at a price of $30.50, was undervalued. That proved to be on the mark, as the stock rose out of a base near $50 to trade above $57 this fall.

However, the good news is that The Travelers pulled back a few bucks in November, creating still another opportunity risk-tolerant investors to establish a position in a quality insurer and earn an outsized gain.

The Travelers should approach $70 by mid-2011, boosted by 2% to 4% premium revenue growth, as the insurance company takes advantage of new business opportunities. Prudent underwriting, a superior balance sheet and a $1.44 annual dividend add to the positive mix.

Analyst Upgrades

• Verisk (VRSK) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Jefferies upgraded Teekay (TK) and Tsakos Energy (TNP) to Buy from Hold.
• Cadence Design (CDNS) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded NV Energy (NVE) to buy from underperform and Education Realty Trust (EDR) to neutral from underperform.
• Men's Wearhouse (MW) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel.
• William Blair upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to outperform from market perform.
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.

"Income-hungry investors have spoken, and they have chosen bonds as their investment of choice," notes dividend expert Chuck Carlson, who prefers to look to blue chip stocks for potential capital gains and income growth.

The editor of The DRIP Investor explains, "In 2009, a record $375 billion of new money flooded into bond funds. Over the same period, domestic stock funds saw $40 billion go out the door.

And through the first half of 2010, taxable bond funds had net new cash flow of $136 billion versus outflows of $18.4 billion for domestic stock funds. This torrent of money has driven down the yields on bonds to microscopic levels.

"The upshot is that, on a relative basis, dividend-paying stocks seem quite cheap compared to bonds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Jefferies upgraded Computer Sciences (CSC) to buy from hold and raised its target to $53 from $47. The analyst said Computer Sciences' valuation has created one of the best LBO opportunities in several years and could provide a five year IRR of 25+%.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Comerica (CMA) to outperform from market perform, citing strength of the company's capital. The firm raised its target for shares to $44 from $43.
• RBC Capital upgraded Nokia (NOK) to outperform from sector perform and raised its price target to $14 from $12. The firm upgraded shares based on valuation, reduced execution risk on software development, and potential catalysts from new devices based on Symbian^3. RBS upgraded Nokia to buy from hold after the company named Stephen Elop as CEO.
• Allstate (ALL) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Moody's (MCO) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Did you miss that April 2009 entry point with the The Travelers (TRV), which I first wrote about on April 24, 2009, at a price of $30.50?

Well, here's some good news: TRV has pulled back, slightly (and temporarily, according to my analysis), giving investors who can tolerate moderate-risk a chance to establish a position in a quality insurer and earn an out-sized gain.

Look for TRV to approach $70 by mid-2011, boosted by 2% to 4% premium revenue growth in 2010, as the insurance company takes advantage of new business opportunities. Prudent underwriting, a superior balance sheet, and a $1.44 annual dividend add to the positive mix.

You could blame trade deficit, or the government deficit, which both came out today, either way, this was one of those miserable days spawned overseas with weakness in China and on the heels of a lower economic guidance from the FOMC. Triple-digit DJIA losses never saw any bargain buyers come into the mix. Today's drop in the DJIA also took the index back into the red for the year as the December 31 closing date was at $10,428.05.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA
S&P500
NASDAQ

Top Analyst Calls

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Keegan upgraded Copano Energy (CPNO) to Outperform from Market Perform based on the $300M capital infusion it received from TPG Capital.
• Wells Fargo upgraded SunTrust (STI) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's Q2 results citing improving credit quality trends and valuation.
• UBS upgraded Baidu (BIDU) to Buy from Neutral based on solid fundamentals following the strong Q2 report and guidance and valuation. The firm raised its price target to $92 from $69.
• Baxter (BAX) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• JetBlue (JBLU) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
• Penn Virginia GP (PVG) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.

Analyst downgrades:

• Piper Jaffray downgraded Beckman Coulter (BEC) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's weaker than expected Q2 results and lowered guidance. The firm lowered its target for shares to $60 from $74. Shares were also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies and to Neutral from outperform at Baird following the company's reduced guidance.
• Keefe Bruyette cut AmeriCredit (ACF) to Market Perform from Outperform following the acquisition by General Motors (GM, MTLQQ).
• FBR Capital downgraded SunTrust (STI) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its price target to $27 from $34. The analyst believes larger banks are better positioned than regionals due to greater prospects of reserve releases.
• Travelers (TRV) was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
• Lender Processing (LPS) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
• Penn Virginia Resource (PVR) was downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.

Analyst initiations:

• ThinkEquity assumed coverage of SanDisk (SNDK) with a Buy rating.
• Macquarie initiated Allergan (AGN) with an Outperform rating and $75 price target.
• Macquarie also initiated Cooper Companies (COO) with an Outperform rating and $45 price target.
• NCR Corp (NCR) was initiated with a Hold rating at KeyBanc.
• CryoLife (CRY) was started at Benchmark Co. with a Buy rating and $8 target.
• China New Borun (BORN) was initiated with an Overweight rating and $7.40 target at Piper Jaffray.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded VeriSign (VRSN) to outperform from perform, citing better-than-expected domain names trends and the potential for a sizeable share buyback. The firm has a $33 price target for shares.
• Oppenheimer also upgraded EMC (EMC) to outperform from perform, citing valuation and expectations for strong Q2 results. The firm set a $22 price target for shares.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Juniper (JNPR) to overweight from neutral, citing valuation and its longer-term outlook. The firm keeps a $31 price target for shares.
• Kilroy Realty (KRC) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Veolia Environment (VE) was upgraded to buy from add at WestLB.
• QEP Resources (QEP) was upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.

All in all, there are many advantages to a home business. For example, you have more time to spend with your family, you do not have to deal with aggravating commutes, and there is even the home office tax deduction. If anything, the overall costs should be lower -- making it easier to get traction for your business.

Yet, there are definitely considerable risks, which are often overlooked. But the good news is that smart insurance planning can provide sufficient protection. And the prices are affordable, costing as little as $500 per year.